Understanding the response of tropical cyclone structure to the assimilation of synthetic wind profiles

This study examines how varying wind profile coverages in the tropical cyclone (TC) core, near-environment and broader synoptic environment affect the structure and evolution of a simulated Atlantic hurricane through data assimilation. Three sets of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are examined in this paper. The first experiment establishes a benchmark for the case study specific to the forecast system used by assimilating idealized profiles throughout the parent domain. The second presents how TC analyses and forecasts respond to varying the coverage of swaths produced by polar-orbiting satellites of idealized wind profiles. The final experiment assesses the role of TC inner-core observations by systematically removing them radially from the center. All observations are simulated from a high-resolution regional “Nature Run” of a hurricane and the tropical atmosphere, assimilated an Ensemble Square-Root Kalman Filter and the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) regional model. Results compare observation impact to the analyses, domain-wide and TC centric error statistics, and TC structural differences among the experiments. The study concludes that the most accurate TC representation is a result of the assimilation of collocated and uniform thermodynamic and kinematics observations. Intensity forecasts are improved with increased inner core wind observations, even if the observations are only available once daily. Domain-wide root-mean-square errors are significantly reduced when the TC is observed during a period of structural change, like rapid intensification. The experiments suggest the importance of wind observations and the role of inner-core surveillance when analyzing and forecasting realistic TC structure.