Role of Storm Erosion Potential and Beach Morphology in Controlling Dune Erosion

Coastal erosion is controlled by two sets of factors, one related to storm intensity and the other related to a location’s vulnerability. This study investigated the role of each set in controlling dune erosion based on data compiled for eighteen historical events in New Jersey. Here, storm intensity was characterized by the Storm Erosion Index (SEI) and Peak Erosion Intensity (PEI), factors used to describe a storm’s cumulative erosion potential and maximum erosive power, respectively. In this study, a direct relationship between these parameters, beach morphology characteristics, and expected dune response was established through a classification tree ensemble. Of the seven input parameters, PEI was the most important, indicating that peak storm conditions with time scales on the order of hours were the most critical in predicting dune impacts. Results suggested that PEI, alone, was successful in distinguishing between storms most likely to result in no impacts (PEI < 69) and those likely to result in some (PEI > 102), regardless of beach condition. For intensities in between, where no consistent behavior was observed, beach conditions must be considered. Because of the propensity for beach conditions to change over short spatial scales, it is important to predict impacts on a local scale. This study established a model with the computational effectiveness to provide such predictions.

Transport of Water Vapor from Tropical Cyclones to the Upper Troposphere

This paper investigates the influence of tropical cyclones on water vapor concentrations in the upper atmosphere above these storms. We use independent data sets of tropical storm intensity, water vapor and lightning activity to investigate this relationship. Water vapor in the upper troposphere is a key greenhouse gas, with direct impacts on surface temperatures. Both the amount and altitude of water vapor impact the radiative balance and the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. The water vapor enters the upper troposphere through deep convective storms, often associated with lightning activity. The intensity of the lightning activity represents the intensity of the convection in these storms, and hence the amount of water vapor transported aloft. In this paper, we investigate the role of tropical cyclones on the contribution of water vapor to the upper atmosphere moistening. Tropical cyclones are the largest most intense storms on Earth and can last for up to two weeks at a time. There is also evidence that the intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing, and will continue to increase, due to global warming. In this study we find that the maximum moistening of the upper atmosphere occurs at the 200 hPa level (~12 km altitude), with a lag of 1–2 days after the maximum sustained winds in the tropical cyclone. While the water vapor peaks after the maximum of the storm intensity, the lightning activity peaks before the maximum intensity of the storms, as shown previously. We show here that the absolute amount of water vapor in the upper troposphere above tropical storms increases linearly with the intensity of the storms. For every 10 hPa decrease in the minimum pressure of tropical storms, the specific humidity increases around 0.2 g/kg at the 200 hPa level.

Can Existing Theory Predict the Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity to Idealized Landfall?

Tropical cyclones cause significant inland hazards, including wind damage and freshwater flooding, that depend strongly on how storm intensity evolves after landfall. Existing theoretical predictions for storm intensification and equilibrium storm intensity have been tested over the open ocean but have not yet been applied to storms after landfall. Recent work examined the transient response of the tropical cyclone low-level wind field to instantaneous surface roughening or drying in idealized axisymmetric f -plane simulations. Here, experiments testing combined surface roughening and drying with varying magnitudes of each are used to test theoretical predictions for the intensity response. The transient response to combined surface forcings can be reproduced by the product of their individual responses, in line with traditional potential intensity theory. Existing intensification theory is generalized to weakening and found capable of reproducing the time-dependent inland intensity decay. The initial (0-10min) rapid decay of near-surface wind caused by surface roughening is not captured by existing theory but can be reproduced by a simple frictional spin-down model, where the decay rate is a function of surface drag coefficient. Finally, the theory is shown to compare well with the prevailing empirical decay model for real-world storms. Overall, results indicate the potential for existing theory to predict how tropical cyclone intensity evolves after landfall.

Effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions on Pluvial Flood Hazard Mitigation: The Case Study of the City of Eindhoven (The Netherlands)

Urbanization leads to changes in the surface cover that alter the hydrological cycle of cities, particularly by increasing the impervious area and, thereby, reducing the interception, storage and infiltration capacity of rainwater. Nature-based solutions (NBS) can contribute to flood risk mitigation in urbanized areas by restoring hydrological functions. However, the effects of NBS on flood risk mitigation are complex and can differ substantially with the type of the NBS. Therefore, the effectiveness of NBS at the urban catchment scale is still subject to much debate, especially at the scale of urban catchments. In this study, the effects of different NBS on urban flood mitigation were evaluated for the city of Eindhoven in The Netherlands, as it has a history of urban flood events. To this end, various NBS scenarios were defined by municipal stakeholders and their impacts modelled with the numerical model Infoworks ICM. This was done for design storms with short, medium and long return periods (5, 10 and 100 years). Overall, the simulated NBS were effective in flood risk mitigation, reducing the flooded area as well as flood depth. The effectiveness of the individual NBS scenarios, however, depended strongly on the location and extension of the NBS, as well as on storm intensity. The effectiveness tended to increase with the increase in NBS surface area, while it tended to decrease with increasing storm intensity and, hence, return period. The NBS solution increasing street water storage was revealed to be more effective than those involving green car parks and green roofs. This study showed that numerical flooding models can be useful tools to assess the effects of NBS to reduce flood extent, water depth and/or velocity, providing insights that can support city planners to design and compare alternative strategies and plans for urban flood risk mitigation.

Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise and increased storm intensity

&lt;p&gt;Salt marshes are widely recognised as ecosystems with high economic and environmental value. However, it is still unclear how salt marshes will respond to the combined impact of future sea-level rise and possible increases in storm intensity (Schuerch et al. 2013). This study investigates marsh resilience under the combined impact of various storm surge and sea-level scenarios by using a sediment budget approach. The current paradigm is that a positive sediment budget supports the accretion of salt marshes and, therefore, its survival, while a negative sediment budget causes marsh degradation (Ganju et al. 2015). The Ribble Estuary, North-West England, was used as test case, and the hydrodynamic model Delft3D was used to simulate the response of the salt marsh system to the above scenarios. We conclude that the resilience of salt marshes and estuarine systems is enhanced under the effect of storm surges, as they promote flood dominance and trigger a net import of sediment.&amp;#160; Conversely, sea-level rise threatens marsh stability, by promoting ebb dominance and triggering a net export of sediment. Ultimately, when storm surge and sea-level scenarios are combined, results show that storms with the highest intensities have the potential to counteract the negative impact of sea-level rise by masking its effects on the sediment budget.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Acknowledgements&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;We acknowledge the support of the School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;References&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Ganju, N.K., Kirwan, M.L., Dickhudt, P.J., Guntenspergen, G.R., Cahoon, D.R. and Kroeger, K.D. 2015. &amp;#8220;Sediment transport-based metrics of wetland stability&amp;#8221;. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(19), 7992-8000.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Schuerch, M., Vafeidis, A., Slawig, T. and Temmerman, S. 2013. &amp;#8220;Modeling the influence of changing storm patterns on the ability of a salt marsh to keep pace with sea level rise&amp;#8221;.&amp;#160;Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 118(1),&lt;strong&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/strong&gt;84-96.&lt;/p&gt;