scholarly journals Role of eyewall and rainband eddy forcing in tropical cyclone intensification

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Zhu ◽  
Bryce Tyner ◽  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Eric Aligo ◽  
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Turbulent Mixing ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Flow Feature ◽  
Pbl Scheme ◽  
Operational Models ◽  
Fundamental Mechanism

Abstract. The fundamental mechanism underlying tropical cyclone (TC) intensification may be understood from the conservation of absolute angular momentum, where the primary circulation of a TC is driven by the torque acting on air parcels resulting from asymmetric eddy processes, including turbulence. While turbulence is commonly regarded as a flow feature pertaining to the planetary boundary layer (PBL), intense turbulent mixing generated by cloud processes also exists above the PBL in the eyewall and rainbands. Unlike the eddy forcing within the PBL that is negative definite, the sign of eyewall/rainband eddy forcing above the PBL is indefinite and thus provides a possible mechanism to spin up a TC vortex. In this study, we show that the Hurricane Weather Research & forecasting (HWRF) model, one of the operational models used for TC prediction, is unable to generate appropriate sub-grid-scale (SGS) eddy forcing above the PBL due to lack of consideration of intense turbulent mixing generated by the eyewall and rainband clouds. Incorporating an in-cloud turbulent mixing parameterization in the PBL scheme notably improves HWRF's skills on predicting rapid changes in intensity for several past major hurricanes. While the analyses show that the SGS eddy forcing above the PBL is only about one-fifth of the model-resolved eddy forcing, the simulated TC vortex inner-core structure and the associated model-resolved eddy forcing exhibit a substantial dependence on the parameterized SGS eddy processes. The results highlight the importance of eyewall/rainband SGS eddy forcing to numerical prediction of TC intensification, including rapid intensification at the current resolution of operational models.

scholarly journals Role of eyewall and rainband eddy forcing in tropical cyclone intensification

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 14289-14310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Zhu ◽  
Bryce Tyner ◽  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Eric Aligo ◽  
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Turbulent Mixing ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Flow Feature ◽  
Secondary Circulations ◽  
Vertical Turbulent Mixing ◽  
Operational Models

Abstract. While turbulence is commonly regarded as a flow feature pertaining to the planetary boundary layer (PBL), intense turbulent mixing generated by cloud processes also exists above the PBL in the eyewall and rainbands of a tropical cyclone (TC). The in-cloud turbulence above the PBL is intimately involved in the development of convective elements in the eyewall and rainbands and consists of a part of asymmetric eddy forcing for the evolution of the primary and secondary circulations of a TC. In this study, we show that the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model, one of the operational models used for TC prediction, is unable to generate appropriate sub-grid-scale (SGS) eddy forcing above the PBL due to a lack of consideration of intense turbulent mixing generated by the eyewall and rainband clouds. Incorporating an in-cloud turbulent-mixing parameterization in the vertical turbulent-mixing scheme notably improves the HWRF model's skills in predicting rapid changes in intensity for several past major hurricanes. While the analyses show that the SGS eddy forcing above the PBL is only about one-fifth of the model-resolved eddy forcing, the simulated TC vortex inner-core structure, secondary overturning circulation, and the model-resolved eddy forcing exhibit a substantial dependence on the parameterized SGS eddy processes. The results highlight the importance of eyewall and rainband SGS eddy forcing to numerical prediction of TC intensification, including rapid intensification at the current resolution of operational models.

scholarly journals The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (7) ◽  
pp. 2315-2324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel ◽  
Fuqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Storm Intensity ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Abstract Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are dominated by initial-condition errors out to at least a few days. Initialization errors are usually thought of in terms of position and intensity, but here it is shown that growth of intensity error is at least as sensitive to the specification of inner-core moisture as to that of the wind field. Implications of this finding for tropical cyclone observational strategies and for overall predictability of storm intensity are discussed.

Numerical Study on the Extremely Rapid Intensification of an Intense Tropical Cyclone: Typhoon Ida (1958)

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (11) ◽  
pp. 4194-4217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sachie Kanada ◽  
Akiyoshi Wada
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Central Pressure ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract Extremely rapid intensification (ERI) of Typhoon Ida (1958) was examined with a 2-km-mesh nonhydrostatic model initiated at three different times. Ida was an extremely intense tropical cyclone with a minimum central pressure of 877 hPa. The maximum central pressure drop in 24 h exceeded 90 hPa. ERI was successfully simulated in two of the three experiments. A factor crucial to simulating ERI was a combination of shallow-to-moderate convection and tall, upright convective bursts (CBs). Under a strong environmental vertical wind shear (>10 m s−1), shallow-to-moderate convection on the downshear side that occurred around the intense near-surface inflow moistened the inner-core area. Meanwhile, dry subsiding flows on the upshear side helped intensification of midlevel (8 km) inertial stability. First, a midlevel warm core appeared below 10 km in the shallow-to-moderate convection areas, being followed by the development of the upper-level warm core associated with tall convection. When tall, upright, rotating CBs formed from the leading edge of the intense near-surface inflow, ERI was triggered at the area in which the air became warm and humid. CBs penetrated into the upper troposphere, aligning the areas with high vertical vorticity at low to midlevels. The upper-level warm core developed rapidly in combination with the midlevel warm core. Under the preconditioned environment, the formation of the upright CBs inside the radius of maximum wind speeds led to an upright axis of the secondary circulation within high inertial stability, resulting in a very rapid central pressure deepening.

scholarly journals Reassessing the Use of Inner-Core Hot Towers to Predict Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification*

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1265-1279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Yong Zhuge ◽  
Jie Ming ◽  
Yuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Prediction Scheme ◽  
Skill Scores

Abstract The hot tower (HT) in the inner core plays an important role in tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI). With the help of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme dataset, the potential of HTs in operational RI prediction is reassessed in this study. The stand-alone HT-based RI prediction scheme showed little skill in the northern Atlantic (NA) and eastern and central Pacific (ECP), but yielded skill scores of >0.3 in the southern Indian Ocean (SI) and western North Pacific (WNP) basins. The inaccurate predictions are due to four scenarios: 1) RI events may have already begun prior to the TRMM overpass. 2) RI events are driven by non-HT factors. 3) The HT has already dissipated or has not occurred at the TRMM overpass time. 4) Large false alarms result from the unfavorable environment. When the HT was used in conjunction with the TC’s previous 12-h intensity change, the potential intensity, the percentage area from 50 to 200 km of cloud-top brightness temperatures lower than −10°C, and the 850–200-hPa vertical shear magnitude with the vortex removed, the predictive skill score in the SI was 0.56. This score was comparable to that of the RI index scheme, which is considered the most advanced RI prediction method. When the HT information was combined with the aforementioned four environmental factors in the NA, ECP, South Pacific, and WNP, the skill scores were 0.23, 0.32, 0.42, and 0.42, respectively.

Impact of Parameterized Boundary Layer Structure on Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Forecasts in HWRF

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (4) ◽  
pp. 1413-1426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun A. Zhang ◽  
Robert F. Rogers ◽  
Vijay Tallapragada
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Boundary Layer Structure ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study evaluates the impact of the modification of the vertical eddy diffusivity (Km) in the boundary layer parameterization of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model on forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI). Composites of HWRF forecasts of Hurricanes Earl (2010) and Karl (2010) were compared for two versions of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme in HWRF. The results show that using a smaller value of Km, in better agreement with observations, improves RI forecasts. The composite-mean, inner-core structures for the two sets of runs at the time of RI onset are compared with observational, theoretical, and modeling studies of RI to determine why the runs with reduced Km are more likely to undergo RI. It is found that the forecasts with reduced Km at the RI onset have a shallower boundary layer with stronger inflow, more unstable near-surface air outside the eyewall, stronger and deeper updrafts in regions farther inward from the radius of maximum wind (RMW), and stronger boundary layer convergence closer to the storm center, although the mean storm intensity (as measured by the 10-m winds) is similar for the two groups. Finally, it is found that the departure of the maximum tangential wind from the gradient wind at the eyewall, and the inward advection of angular momentum outside the eyewall, is much larger in the forecasts with reduced Km. This study emphasizes the important role of the boundary layer structure and dynamics in TC intensity change, supporting recent studies emphasizing boundary layer spinup mechanism, and recommends further improvement to the HWRF PBL physics.

Understanding the response of tropical cyclone structure to the assimilation of synthetic wind profiles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa R. Bucci ◽  
Sharanya J. Majumdar ◽  
Robert Atlas ◽  
G. David Emmitt ◽  
Steve Greco
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Error Statistics ◽  
Once Daily ◽  
Structural Differences ◽  
Wind Profiles ◽  
Parent Domain ◽  
Mean Square Errors

AbstractThis study examines how varying wind profile coverages in the tropical cyclone (TC) core, near-environment and broader synoptic environment affect the structure and evolution of a simulated Atlantic hurricane through data assimilation. Three sets of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are examined in this paper. The first experiment establishes a benchmark for the case study specific to the forecast system used by assimilating idealized profiles throughout the parent domain. The second presents how TC analyses and forecasts respond to varying the coverage of swaths produced by polar-orbiting satellites of idealized wind profiles. The final experiment assesses the role of TC inner-core observations by systematically removing them radially from the center. All observations are simulated from a high-resolution regional “Nature Run” of a hurricane and the tropical atmosphere, assimilated an Ensemble Square-Root Kalman Filter and the Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast (HWRF) regional model. Results compare observation impact to the analyses, domain-wide and TC centric error statistics, and TC structural differences among the experiments. The study concludes that the most accurate TC representation is a result of the assimilation of collocated and uniform thermodynamic and kinematics observations. Intensity forecasts are improved with increased inner core wind observations, even if the observations are only available once daily. Domain-wide root-mean-square errors are significantly reduced when the TC is observed during a period of structural change, like rapid intensification. The experiments suggest the importance of wind observations and the role of inner-core surveillance when analyzing and forecasting realistic TC structure.

scholarly journals Forecast Uncertainty of Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Dujuan (201521) Induced by Uncertainty in the Boundary Layer

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1263
Author(s):  
Xiaohao Qin ◽  
Wansuo Duan
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Tangential Wind ◽  
Typhoon Intensity

Using ensemble forecast experiments generated by the weather research and forecasting model, the forecast uncertainties of intensity and its rapid intensification (RI) induced by the uncertainty occurring in the boundary layer are investigated for Typhoon Dujuan (201521). The results show that the uncertainty in the boundary layer in the typhoon area, compared with that in other areas of the model domain, not only leads to a much larger forecast uncertainty of the typhoon intensity but also considerably perturbs the RI forecast uncertainty. Particularly, the uncertainty in the gale area in the boundary layer, compared with that in the inner-core and other areas, makes a much larger contribution to the forecast uncertainty of typhoon intensity, with the perturbations including moisture component being most strongly correlated with the occurrence of RI. Further analyses show that such perturbations increase the maximum tangential wind in the boundary layer and enhance the vorticity in the eyewall, which then facilitate the spin-up of the inner-core and induce the occurrence of RI. It is inferred that more observations, especially those associated with the moisture, should be preferentially assimilated in the gale area within the boundary layer of a tropical cyclone, which will help improve the forecast skill of the RI. These results also tell us that the boundary layer parameterization scheme should be further developed to improve the forecast skill of tropical cyclone intensity and its RI behavior.

scholarly journals Role of Advection of Parameterized Turbulence Kinetic Energy in Idealized Tropical Cyclone Simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomin Chen ◽  
George H. Bryan
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Turbulence Kinetic Energy ◽  
Predictive Equations ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Vertical Advection ◽  
Pbl Scheme

AbstractHorizontal homogeneity is typically assumed in the design of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations in weather prediction models. Consistent with this assumption, PBL schemes with predictive equations for subgrid turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) typically neglect advection of TKE. However, tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layers are inhomogeneous, particularly in the eyewall. To gain further insight, this study examines the effect of advection of TKE using the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL scheme in idealized TC simulations. The analysis focuses on two simulations, one that includes TKE advection (CTL) and one that does not (NoADV). Results show that relatively large TKE in the eyewall above 2 km is predominantly attributable to vertical advection of TKE in CTL. Interestingly, buoyancy production of TKE is negative in this region in both simulations; thus, buoyancy effects cannot explain observed columns of TKE in TC eyewalls. Both horizontal and vertical advection of TKE tends to reduce TKE and vertical viscosity (Km) in the near-surface inflow layer, particularly in the eyewall of TCs. Results also show that the simulated TC in CTL has slightly stronger maximum winds, slightly smaller radius of maximum wind (RMW), and ~5% smaller radius of gale-force wind than in NoADV. These differences are consistent with absolute angular momentum being advected to smaller radii in CTL. Sensitivity simulations further reveal that the differences between CTL and NoADV are more attributable to vertical advection (rather than horizontal advection) of TKE. Recommendations for improvements of PBL schemes that use predictive equations for TKE are also discussed.

A Climatological Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in Environments of Upper-Tropospheric Troughs

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (10) ◽  
pp. 3693-3719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Fischer ◽  
Brian H. Tang ◽  
Kristen L. Corbosiero
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
The North ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Dimensionality Reduction Technique ◽  
Intensity Changes ◽  
Cutoff Low ◽  
Environmental Air

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC)–trough interactions are a common occurrence in the North Atlantic basin and lead to a variety of TC intensity changes, from rapid intensification (RI) to rapid weakening. To test whether certain TC–trough configurations are more favorable for RI than others, the upper-tropospheric troughs involved in such interactions were objectively classified into one of three clusters through the implementation of a machine-learning, dimensionality-reduction technique in conjunction with a k-means clustering algorithm. Through composite analyses, the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity structure, the TC convective structure, and the TC environment were examined for both rapidly intensifying TCs and nonrapidly intensifying (non-RI) TCs. As a whole, RI episodes were associated with upper-tropospheric troughs of shorter zonal wavelengths and greater upstream TC–trough displacements than non-RI episodes. RI was found to occur most frequently when an upper-tropospheric cutoff low was located approximately 500–1000 km southwest of the TC location. RI occurred preferentially in environments associated with less ventilation of the TC warm core with low-entropy environmental air. An examination of potential trough-induced forcing for convection revealed little relationship between RI and eddy flux convergence of angular momentum. Nonetheless, RI episodes were associated with anomalously vigorous convective activity within the TC inner core, as diagnosed by infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery.

scholarly journals Assimilation of All-Sky Infrared Radiances from Himawari-8 and Impacts of Moisture and Hydrometer Initialization on Convection-Permitting Tropical Cyclone Prediction

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (10) ◽  
pp. 3241-3258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masashi Minamide ◽  
Fuqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Geostationary Satellite ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Brightness Temperatures ◽  
Sensing Technology ◽  
Infrared Radiances ◽  
Cyclone Prediction

Abstract This study explores the impacts of assimilating all-sky infrared satellite radiances from Himawari-8, a new-generation geostationary satellite that shares similar remote sensing technology with the U.S. geostationary satellite GOES-16, for convection-permitting initialization and prediction of tropical cyclones with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). This case studies the rapid intensification stages of Supertyphoon Soudelor (2015), one of the most intense tropical cyclones ever observed by Himawari-8. It is found that hourly cycling assimilation of the infrared radiance improves not only the estimate of the initial intensity, but also the spatial distribution of essential convective activity associated with the incipient tropical cyclone vortex. Deterministic convection-permitting forecasts initialized from the EnKF analyses are capable of simulating the early development of Soudelor, which demonstrates encouraging prospects for future improvement in tropical cyclone prediction through assimilating all-sky radiances from geostationary satellites such as Himawari-8 and GOES-16. A series of forecast sensitivity experiments are designed to systematically explore the impacts of moisture updates in the data assimilation cycles on the development and prediction of Soudelor. It is found that the assimilation of the brightness temperatures contributes not only to better constraining moist convection within the inner-core region, but also to developing a more resilient initial vortex, both of which are necessary to properly capture the rapid intensification process of tropical cyclones.

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