Assessment of NOAA National Weather Service Methods to Warn for Extreme Heat Events

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle D. Hawkins ◽  
Vankita Brown ◽  
Jannie Ferrell
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Excessive Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Recent climate studies have predicted a future with longer, more intense, and more frequent heat events. Evolving challenges presented by this paradigm necessitate an assessment of current efforts to warn for extreme heat events. NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) issue Excessive Heat Watch, Excessive Heat Warning, and Heat Advisory products as conditions warrant. In the fall of 2013 the NWS conducted an internal assessment with its WFOs to 1) document variations in the usage of heat-based watch, warning, and advisory hazard messages (products) across the country; 2) learn about the degree to which locally developed criteria are applied to forecaster decision-making processes in issuing these products; and 3) gather ideas for enhancing communication of expected excessive heat events in general. Survey responses indicate that WFOs selectively use one or a combination of products, and that various methodologies are used to develop criteria for issuing heat products. Given that forecasters use meteorological and nonmeteorological factors when deciding to issue heat products, forecaster judgment is a crucial element of the warning process. Results also revealed partner confusion due to inconsistent heat product issuance criteria. Suggestions were made for eliminating or revising existing products and policies, or creating new products, policies, or issuance criteria. Results of the survey led the NWS to investigate approaches for achieving higher levels of consistency in heat product issuance criteria, and to engage health partners to examine how heat product issuance criteria could incorporate the known health impacts of heat exposure.

scholarly journals Increased hospital admissions associated with extreme-heat exposure in King County, Washington, 1990–2010

2015 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tania Busch Isaksen ◽  
Michael G. Yost ◽  
Elizabeth K. Hom ◽  
You Ren ◽  
Hilary Lyons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Renal Failure ◽  
Acute Renal Failure ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
King County ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

AbstractIncreased morbidity and mortality have been associated with extreme heat events, particularly in temperate climates. Few epidemiologic studies have considered the impact of extreme heat events on hospitalization rates in the Pacific Northwest region. This study quantifies the historic (May to September 1990–2010) heat-morbidity relationship in the most populous Pacific Northwest County, King County, Washington. A relative risk (RR) analysis was used to explore the association between heat and all non-traumatic hospitalizations on 99th percentile heat days, whereas a time series analysis using a piecewise linear model approximation was used to estimate the effect of heat intensity on hospitalizations, adjusted for temporal trends and day of the week. A non-statistically significant 2% [95% CI: 1.02 (0.98, 1.05)] increase in hospitalization risk, on a heat day vs. a non-heat day, was noted for all-ages and all non-traumatic causes. When considering the effect of heat intensity on admissions, we found a statistically significant 1.59% (95% CI: 0.9%, 2.29%) increase in admissions per degree increase in humidex above 37.4°C. Admissions stratified by cause and age produced statistically significant results with both relative risk and time series analyses for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, and natural heat exposure hospitalizations. This study demonstrates that heat, expressed as humidex, is associated with increased hospital admissions. When stratified by age and cause of admission, the non-elderly age groups (<85 years) experience significant risk for nephritis and nephrotic syndromes, acute renal failure, natural heat exposure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and asthma hospitalizations.

scholarly journals Predicting indoor heat exposure risk during extreme heat events

2014 ◽  
Vol 490 ◽  
pp. 686-693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashlinn Quinn ◽  
James D. Tamerius ◽  
Matthew Perzanowski ◽  
Judith S. Jacobson ◽  
Inge Goldstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Exposure Risk ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

scholarly journals Adapting to Extreme Heat: Social, Atmospheric, and Infrastructure Impacts of Air-Conditioning in Megacities—The Case of New York City

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold Gamarro ◽  
Luis Ortiz ◽  
Jorge E. González
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

Abstract Extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense. In cities, the urban heat island (UHI) can often intensify extreme heat exposure, presenting a public health challenge across vulnerable populations without access to adaptive measures. Here, we explore the impacts of increasing residential air-conditioning (AC) adoption as one such adaptive measure to extreme heat, with New York City (NYC) as a case study. This study uses AC adoption data from NYC Housing and Vacancy Surveys to study impacts to indoor heat exposure, energy demand, and UHI. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, coupled with a multilayer building environment parameterization and building energy model (BEP–BEM), is used to perform this analysis. The BEP–BEM schemes are modified to account for partial AC use and used to analyze current and full AC adoption scenarios. A city-scale case study is performed over the summer months of June–August 2018, which includes three different extreme heat events. Simulation results show good agreement with surface weather stations. We show that increasing AC systems to 100% usage across NYC results in a peak energy demand increase of 20%, while increasing UHI on average by 0.42 °C. Results highlight potential trade-offs in extreme heat adaptation strategies for cities, which may be necessary in the context of increasing extreme heat events.

scholarly journals Forewarned is Forearmed: Extended-Range Forecast Guidance of Recent Extreme Heat Events in Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 697-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Hudson ◽  
A. G. Marshall ◽  
O. Alves ◽  
G. Young ◽  
D. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Forecast Guidance

Abstract There has been increasing demand in Australia for extended-range forecasts of extreme heat events. An assessment is made of the subseasonal experimental guidance provided by the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system, Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), for the three most extreme heat events over Australia in 2013, which occurred in January, March, and September. The impacts of these events included devastating bushfires and damage to crops. The outlooks performed well for January and September, with forecasts indicating increased odds of top-decile maximum temperature over most affected areas at least one week in advance for the fortnightly averaged periods at the start of the heat waves and for forecasts of the months of January and September. The March event was more localized, affecting southern Australia. Although the anomalously high sea surface temperature around southern Australia in March (a potential source of predictability) was correctly forecast, the forecast of high temperatures over the mainland was restricted to the coastline. September was associated with strong forcing from some large-scale atmospheric climate drivers known to increase the chance of having more extreme temperatures over parts of Australia. POAMA-2 was able to forecast the sense of these drivers at least one week in advance, but their magnitude was weaker than observed. The reasonably good temperature forecasts for September are likely due to the model being able to forecast the important climate drivers and their teleconnection to Australian climate. This study adds to the growing evidence that there is significant potential to extend and augment traditional weather forecast guidance for extreme events to include longer-lead probabilistic information.

scholarly journals Do Inflatable Bounce Houses Pose Heat-Related Hazards to Children?

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (5) ◽  
pp. 893-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Grundstein ◽  
J. Marshall Shepherd ◽  
Sarah Duzinski
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Ambient Conditions ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Excessive Heat ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Typical Summer ◽  
Danger Level ◽  
Parents And Caregivers ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Inflatable bounce houses provide a popular summer activity for children. Injuries such as sprains and fractures are widely acknowledged, but there is less awareness about possible hazards from excessive heat exposure. This study aims to identify whether conditions in the bounce house are more oppressive than ambient conditions on a typical summer day in Athens, Georgia. Results show that maximum air temperatures in the bounce house can reach up to 3.7°C (6.7°F) greater than ambient conditions, and peak heat index values may exceed outdoor conditions by 4.5°C (8.1°F). When considered within the context of the National Weather Service heat index safety categories, the bounce house reached the “danger” level in more than half of the observations, compared with only 7% of observations for ambient conditions. Parents and caregivers should be aware of heat-related hazards in bounce houses and closely monitor children, adjusting or canceling activities as conditions become more oppressive.

scholarly journals Impact of Extreme Heat Events on Emergency Department Visits in North Carolina (2007–2011)

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 146-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher M. Fuhrmann ◽  
Margaret M. Sugg ◽  
Charles E. Konrad ◽  
Anna Waller
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
North Carolina ◽  
Emergency Department Visits ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variations of Persistent Extreme Heat Events in Eastern China Under Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naihui Zang ◽  
Junhu Zhao ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Han Zhang ◽  
Shankai Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
South China ◽  
North China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
June July ◽  
Heat Events

Abstract Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961–2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the 21st century. Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH.

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