scholarly journals Forewarned is Forearmed: Extended-Range Forecast Guidance of Recent Extreme Heat Events in Australia

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 697-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Hudson ◽  
A. G. Marshall ◽  
O. Alves ◽  
G. Young ◽  
D. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Forecast Guidance

Abstract There has been increasing demand in Australia for extended-range forecasts of extreme heat events. An assessment is made of the subseasonal experimental guidance provided by the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system, Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA, version 2), for the three most extreme heat events over Australia in 2013, which occurred in January, March, and September. The impacts of these events included devastating bushfires and damage to crops. The outlooks performed well for January and September, with forecasts indicating increased odds of top-decile maximum temperature over most affected areas at least one week in advance for the fortnightly averaged periods at the start of the heat waves and for forecasts of the months of January and September. The March event was more localized, affecting southern Australia. Although the anomalously high sea surface temperature around southern Australia in March (a potential source of predictability) was correctly forecast, the forecast of high temperatures over the mainland was restricted to the coastline. September was associated with strong forcing from some large-scale atmospheric climate drivers known to increase the chance of having more extreme temperatures over parts of Australia. POAMA-2 was able to forecast the sense of these drivers at least one week in advance, but their magnitude was weaker than observed. The reasonably good temperature forecasts for September are likely due to the model being able to forecast the important climate drivers and their teleconnection to Australian climate. This study adds to the growing evidence that there is significant potential to extend and augment traditional weather forecast guidance for extreme events to include longer-lead probabilistic information.

scholarly journals P064: Hot days make for long stays: the impact of extreme heat events on emergency department lengths of stay and volumes in two Canadian community hospitals

CJEM ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (S1) ◽  
pp. S87-S87
Author(s):  
F. Kegel ◽  
O. Luo ◽  
S. Richer
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Services ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Community Hospitals ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Heat Events

Introduction: The average temperature in Canada has risen 1.7°C between 1948-2016, increasing the frequency, severity and duration of extreme heat events. These events can exacerbate underlying health conditions, bringing patients to emergency departments (EDs). There is limited data associating sustained heat events to Canadian ED volumes and performance. This retrospective analysis assessed the impact of humidex and temperature on ED volume and length of stay (LOS). Methods: LOS is an indicator of ED overcrowding and system performance. The authors compared median and maximum LOS (hours) and patient volumes in both ambulatory and stretcher ED sections of two community hospitals (NDH, VH) in Montreal, QC to humidex and temperature during the summers of 2016-2018. Data were analyzed with one-way ANOVA and post hoc means analysis with Fisher LSD tests of a priori determined thresholds of mean three-day maximum humidex and temperature preceding ED presentation. Results: The mean maximum humidex and temperature values for the 2016-2018 summers in Montreal, QC were 30.4 and 26.1°C, respectively (n = 276 days). Elevated mean three-day maximum humidex was associated with increased ED volumes (F[3,88] = 4.2,p = 0.008) and median LOS (F[3,88] = 7.7,p = 0.0001) in the NDH. Mean three-day maximum humidex was associated with ED volumes (F[3,272) = 2.9,p = 0.03) but not with median and maximum LOS (p > 0.05) in the VH. Parallel comparisons with mean three-day maximum temperature similarly showed an association with increased ED volumes (F[3,88] = 5.0,p = 0.003) and increased duration of median LOS (F[3,88] = 3.5,p = 0.02) in the NDH. Mean three-day maximum temperature was associated with increased ED volumes (F[3,272] = 3.3,p = 0.02) but not with median and maximum LOS (p > 0.05) in the VH. Conclusion: Warming climates are associated with an increased number of ED presentations and longer median ED LOS. As heat events disproportionately impacted NDH, future investigations need to determine why these two hospitals were affected differently. This study provides local evidence that climate change can disrupt emergency services by increasing the demand for and delaying timely care. This is the first study that the authors are aware of that demonstrates these findings. Hospitals need to be climate ready. Heat waves often happen during times when summer bed closures and vacations already impact system capacity. EDs should dynamically adapt to meet community needs during periods of extreme heat.

scholarly journals Interdecadal Variations of Persistent Extreme Heat Events in Eastern China Under Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naihui Zang ◽  
Junhu Zhao ◽  
Pengcheng Yan ◽  
Han Zhang ◽  
Shankai Tang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
21St Century ◽  
South China ◽  
North China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
June July ◽  
Heat Events

Abstract Persistent extreme heat events (PEHEs) exert a more negative impact on society, including agriculture, plant phenology, power production and human health, compared to general EHEs. The temporal and spatial characteristics of summer PEHEs in eastern China were analysed based on a daily maximum temperature dataset from 759 stations over the period of 1961–2018. The results show the following: Persistent distributions of PEHEs show that they are characterized by an exponential decay with a drop in the decay rate. In terms of spatial distribution, there is an apparent regional difference in the duration of PEHEs. North China is dominated by multi-frequency and short-duration EHEs, while South China is the opposite. PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region mainly occur in June-July but mostly in July and August in South China. Strongly responding to global warming, the frequency and duration of PEHEs in North China have increased since the 1990s. However, the frequency of PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai region has shown opposite trends in June-July since the beginning of the 21st century. Affected by the atmospheric circulations, the regional differences in PEHE frequency are also apparent. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the PEHEs in North China and the Huanghuai area have shown an increasing trend in August. The short-term PEHEs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and South China increased rapidly in the 2000s, while long-term PEHEs increased in the 2010s. This study implies that attention should be paid to not only the frequency of EH days but also to the persistence of EHE which is a key characteristic of damaging EH.

A population-based case–control study of the association between weather-related extreme heat events and low birthweight

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Wayne R. Lawrence ◽  
Aida Soim ◽  
Wangjian Zhang ◽  
Ziqiang Lin ◽  
Yi Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Control Study ◽  
First Trimester ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Control Study

Abstract Although prenatal exposure to high ambient temperatures were reported to be associated with preterm birth, limited research assessed the impact of weather-related extreme heat events (EHE) on birthweight, particularly by trimester. We, therefore, investigated the impact of prenatal EHE on birthweight among term babies (tLBW) by trimester and birthweight percentile. We conducted a population-based case–control study on singleton live births at 38–42 gestational weeks in New York State (NYS) by linking weather data with NYS birth certificates. A total of 22,615 cases were identified as birthweight <2500 gram, and a random sample of 139,168 normal birthweight controls was included. EHE was defined as three consecutive days with the maximum temperatures of ≥32.2 °C/90 °F (EHE90) and two consecutive days of temperatures ≥97th percentile (EHE97) based on the distribution of the maximum temperature for the season and region. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) with multivariable unconditional logistic regression, controlling for confounders. Overall exposure to EHE97 for 2 d was associated with tLBW (OR 1.05; 95% CI 1.02, 1.09); however, the strongest associations were only observed in the first trimester for both heat indicators, especially when exposure was ≥3 d (ORs ranged: 1.06–1.13). EHE in the first trimester was associated with significant reduction in mean birthweight from 26.78 gram (EHE90) to 36.25 gram (EHE97), which mainly affected the 40th and 60th birthweight percentiles. Findings revealed associations between multiple heat indicators and tLBW, where the impact was consistently strongest in the first trimester.

scholarly journals The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO<sub>2</sub>-warmed world

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 11889-11904
Author(s):  
Jangho Lee ◽  
Jeffrey C. Mast ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6 h output from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble driven by forcing from a 1 % yr−1 CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional exposure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these variations are mostly associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. However, while the unforced variability in the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases significantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population perspective. This means that, for metrics of extreme heat and humidity analyzed here, forced variability in the climate is more important than the unforced variability at global scales. Lastly, we found that most heat wave metrics will increase significantly between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C, and that low gross domestic product (GDP) regions show significantly higher risks of facing extreme heat events compared to high GDP regions. Considering the limited economic adaptability of the population to heat extremes, this reinforces the idea that the most severe impacts of climate change may fall mostly on those least capable of adapting.

scholarly journals Human and natural drivers of the recent contrasting trends between daytime and nighttime hot extremes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Eun-Hye Lee ◽  
Seung-Ki Min
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Tropical Night ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

Abstract The frequency and duration of extreme heat events, including heat waves (HWs, daytime hot extremes) and tropical night (TNs), are increasing significantly as the climate warms, adversely affecting human health, agriculture, and energy consumption. Although many detection and attribution studies have examined extreme heat events, the underlying mechanisms associated with the recent increase in HWs and TNs remain unclear. In this study, we analyze the controlling factors behind the distinct increases in HW and TN events over the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer (June to August). We found that the occurrence of HW events has been increasing gradually since 1980, mostly due to anthropogenic forcing. However, the occurrence of TN events increased abruptly during the late 1990s and has changed little since then. We demonstrate that this sudden increase in TN events is closely associated with low frequency variability in sea surface temperature, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, indicating its natural origin. We further found that CMIP5 climate models fail to capture the observed non-linear increases in TN events, implying potentially large uncertainty in future projections of nighttime heat events and its impacts on human society and ecosystem.

scholarly journals Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (9) ◽  
pp. 1699-1712 ◽  
Author(s):  
ROBERT TESKEY ◽  
TIMOTHY WERTIN ◽  
INGVAR BAUWERAERTS ◽  
MAARTEN AMEYE ◽  
MARY ANNE MCGUIRE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Species ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Heat Events

scholarly journals The Effect of Forced and Unforced Variability on Heat Waves, Temperature Extremes, and Associated Population Risk in a CO<sub>2</sub>-Warmed World

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jangho Lee ◽  
Jeffery C. Mast ◽  
Andrew E. Dessler
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Hourly Output ◽  
Heat Extremes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Population ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6-hourly output from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble driven by forcing from a 1 %/year CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional exposure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these variations are mostly associated with ENSO variability. However, while the unforced variability of the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases significantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population perspective. This means that, for metrics of extreme heat and humidity analyzed here, forced variability of the climate is more important than the unforced variability at global scales. Lastly, we found that most heat wave metrics will increase significantly between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, and that low GDP regions shows significant higher risks of facing extreme heat events compared to high GDP regions. Considering the limited economic adaptability of population to heat extremes, this reinforces the idea that the most severe impacts of climate change may fall mostly on those least capable to adapt.

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