scholarly journals Perceptions, Uses, and Interpretations of Uncertainty in Current Weather Forecasts by Spanish Undergraduate Students

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-94
Author(s):  
I. Gómez ◽  
S. Molina ◽  
J. Olcina ◽  
J. J. Galiana-Merino
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Precautionary Action

AbstractThis quantitative study evaluates how 71 Spanish undergraduate students perceive and interpret the uncertainty inherent to deterministic forecasts. It is based on several questions that asked participants what they expect given a forecast presented under the deterministic paradigm for a specific lead time and a particular weather parameter. In this regard, both normal and extreme weather conditions were studied. Students’ responses to the temperature forecast as it is usually presented in the media expect an uncertainty range of ±1°–2°C. For wind speed, uncertainty shows a deviation of ±5–10 km h−1, and the uncertainty range assigned to the precipitation amount shows a deviation of ±30 mm from the specific value provided in a deterministic format. Participants perceive the minimum night temperatures as the least-biased parameter from the deterministic forecast, while the amount of rain is perceived as the most-biased one. In addition, participants were then asked about their probabilistic threshold for taking appropriate precautionary action under distinct decision-making scenarios of temperature, wind speed, and rain. Results indicate that participants have different probabilistic thresholds for taking protective action and that context and presentation influence forecast use. Participants were also asked about the meaning of the probability-of-precipitation (PoP) forecast. Around 40% of responses reformulated the default options, and around 20% selected the correct answer, following previous studies related to this research topic. As a general result, it has been found that participants infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts, and they are mostly used to take action in the presence of decision-making scenarios. In contrast, more difficulties were found when interpreting probabilistic forecasts.

Study on Description of Plant Status at Fukushima Accident by Emergency Action Level

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazufumi Nagashima ◽  
Nakahiro Yasuda
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Fukushima Accident ◽  
Reporting Scheme ◽  
Accident Management ◽  
Precautionary Action ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
Potential Improvement

Abstract This paper aims at verifying the current Japanese Emergency Response Guideline, especially the “notification” (reporting) scheme of emergency action level (EAL), through the analysis of the progress of Fukushima nuclear accident. We compared timing and emergency classification between two datasets of the plant statuses which expressed by the old prediction-based notification and the latest EAL-based notification, in order to assess the current EAL scheme along the effectiveness of protective action for the local residents. We observed that the plant statuses expressed by the current EAL-based notification gave more engineering insights in the earliest accident phase to identify the accident scenario. However, potential improvement area of the guideline was also observed in the following severe accident management (SAM) phase after the trigger of first precautionary action, where we are required to reduce uncertainties in both processes of the operator's notification and the government's decision making by evaluating the progression speed of the severe accident.

Study on Description of Plant Status at Fukushima Accident by Emergency Action Level

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazufumi Nagashima ◽  
Nakahiro Yasuda
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Protective Action ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Fukushima Accident ◽  
Accident Management ◽  
Precautionary Action ◽  
Local Residents ◽  
Potential Improvement

This paper aims at verifying the current Japanese Emergency Response Guideline, especially the notification scheme of Emergency Action Level (EAL), through the analysis of the progress of Fukushima nuclear accident. We compared timing and emergency classification between two data sets of the plant statuses which expressed by the old prediction-based notification and the latest EAL-based notification, in order to assess the current EAL scheme along the effectiveness of protective action for the local residents. We observed that the plant statuses expressed by the current EAL-based notification gave more engineering insights in the earliest accident phase. We also identified a potential improvement area of the guideline in the following severe accident management (SAM) phase after the trigger of first precautionary action, where we are required to reduce uncertainties in both processes of the operator’s notification and the government’s decision-making, in order to compensate for the abstention of utilizing predictive information.

scholarly journals IEA Wind Task 36 “Probabilistic Forecasting Games and Experiments” Initiative

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinna Möhrlen ◽  
Ricardo Bessa ◽  
Gregor Giebel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Power System ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
End Users ◽  
Interdisciplinary Teams ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Max Planck ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts

<p>One key strategy to fight climate change worldwide is to invest in renewable energy sources (RES) and increase their integration into the power system. In recent years, we observed how extreme weather conditions, together with growing penetration levels of RES, are increasingly affecting the power system operation and planning, as well as electricity markets. The inherent uncertainty of such events and the associated uncertainty in the power generation from RES can no longer be ignored by the energy industry. In other words, current deterministic methods have reached their limit due to the inherent inability to model and convey forecast uncertainties.</p><p>Probabilistic information and forecasts have been shown to improve decision-making in many weather-related processes. By dealing with uncertainties, the end-user takes responsibility, but also gets the possibility to harvest the benefits of knowing and being able to calculate what is at stake. Last but not least, knowing the uncertainty of an event in advance opens the possibility to act upon such uncertainty rather than acting on the event itself and thereby mitigating costly side effects or being able to secure safety.</p><p>In 2020, the IEA Wind Task 36 “Wind Energy Forecasting” has for this reason started an initiative “Probabilistic Forecasting Games and Experiments” in collaboration with the Max-Planck Institute for Human Development. The main goal of this initiative is to empirically investigate the psychological barriers to the adoption of probabilistic forecasts and to enable stakeholders to understand and explore their benefit and use.  With the initiative, the IEA Wind Task 36 wants to establish interdisciplinary teams to promote testing and playing with forecast games and experiments to give end-users a “feel” of where the hidden possibilities are to improve decisions and developers a platform to:</p><ul><li>Discuss</li> <li>Educate</li> <li>Inspire</li> </ul><p>the energy and meteorology community for the development, deployment and communication of uncertainties of weather and energy forecasts to end-users for better decision making.</p><p>The task leaders have started to setup a platform with a list of forecasting games and experiments  developed by the task, in cooperation or by cooperating institutions, researchers or companies as well as invite others outside the tasks community to share links or data to games and experiments.</p><p>The initiative will be presented and the first experience with the task’s own games and experiments briefly discussed. The many open questions and considerations when looking forward towards the establishment of training and educational tools for probabilistic forecasts will be formulated and posed to the meteorological and psychological/behaviorism research community to enhance the collaboration and establish a stronger link for this interdiciplinary work. </p>

scholarly journals Memory and Decision Making: Determining Action when the Sirens Sound

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Drost
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Episodic Memory ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Personal Experiences ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Precautionary Behavior ◽  
Precautionary Action ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Episodic Memories ◽  
Memory Group

Abstract Memories, both semantic, or learned knowledge, and episodic, or personal experiences, play an important role in an individual’s decision making under risk. In addition, varying levels of knowledge and experience exist in each individual. These memories enable individuals to make informed decisions based on previous knowledge or experience, and ultimately influence one’s behavior under risk. In this study, 49 undergraduate students participated in a 1-h, classroom-based experiment focusing on decision making. The sample contained n = 23 “episodic” participants, referred to as “high episodic,” who reported having personally experienced a tornado and n = 24 participants, referred to as “low episodic,” who had no reported tornado experience. Incomplete data reported by the remaining participants were not included in this study. All participants completed a decision-making task both before and after viewing a 5-min slideshow stimulus related to tornadoes and associated damage. This decision-making task prompted participants to describe the actions they would anticipate taking during an actual tornado warning. Prior to the stimulus, high episodic participants exhibited a marginally higher tendency to ignore a tornado warning than those participants without episodic (low episodic) memories. After the tornado stimulus, all participants reported a greater likelihood to engage in precautionary action than reported prior to the stimulus. It is also found that 1) those participants with low episodic memory showed greater precaution than the high episodic memory group, and 2) participants with greater knowledge of tornadoes showed the greatest gains in anticipated precautionary behavior. This study suggests that increasing a population’s general knowledge of tornadoes could result in greater individual precaution and overall safety during a tornadic event.

scholarly journals Role of Rain as Perception Aid in Assessing Wind Speeds and Associated Personal Risks

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duzgun Agdas ◽  
Forrest J. Masters ◽  
Gregory D. Webster
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Event Perception ◽  
Household Decision ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Intensity Perception

Abstract Extreme event perception drives personal risks and, consequently, dictates household decision-making before, during, and after extreme events. Given this, increasing the extreme event perception accuracy of the public is important to improving decision-making in extreme event scenarios; however, limited research has been done on this subject. Results of a laboratory experiment, in which 76 human participants were exposed to hurricane-strength weather conditions and asked to estimate their intensities and associated personal risks, are presented in this article. Participants were exposed to a range of identical wind speeds [20, 40, 60 mph (1 mph = 1.61 km h−1)] with [8 in. h−1 (1 in. = 2.54 cm)] and without rain. They then provided estimates of the perceived wind and rain (when present) speeds, and associated personal risks on a nominal scale of 0 to 10. Improvements in the accuracy of wind speed perception at higher speeds were observed when rain was present in the wind field (41.5 and 69.1 mph) than when it was not (45.2 and 75.8 mph) for 40- and 60-mph wind speed exposures, respectively. In contrast, risk perceptions were similar for both rain and nonrain conditions. This is particularly interesting because participants failed to estimate rain intensities (both horizontal and wind-driven rain) by a significant margin. The possible implications of rain as a perception aid to wind and the viability of using perception aids to better convey extreme weather risks are discussed. The article concludes by revisiting discussions about the implications of past hurricane experience on wind intensity perception, personal risk assessment, and future directions in extreme weather risk perception research.

scholarly journals An Experiment to Measure the Value of Statistical Probability Forecasts for Airports

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 928-935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ross Keith ◽  
Stephen M. Leyton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Operating Costs ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Decision Threshold ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Additional Fuel ◽  
American Airlines

Abstract The economic value of weather forecasts for airports for commercial aviation is investigated by introducing financial data into the decision-making process for fuel carriage by aircraft. Using specific operating costs for a given flight, an optimal decision probability threshold can be calculated that identifies whether that flight should carry extra fuel, in case of adverse weather conditions and subsequent diversion. Forecasts of these adverse conditions can then be applied to a critical threshold to make a real-time decision regarding the carriage of additional fuel. This study focuses on forecasts of low ceiling and/or reduced visibility and their corresponding impact on forecast value for flights arriving at three major airports in the United States. Eighteen daily flights by American Airlines were examined during a 14-month period, a total of approximately 7500 flights. Using operating cost data from this period, a critical decision threshold was derived for each daily flight. Two sets of forecasts, statistically derived probabilistic forecasts and National Weather Service terminal aerodrome forecasts (TAFs), were then applied to each flight’s fuel carriage decision-making process. The probabilistic forecasts, which utilize regional surface observations, were generated for the destination airport with a lead time appropriate to the airline’s flight planning time. If the forecast probability of adverse weather was greater than the critical decision threshold for a given flight, then additional fuel was deemed necessary for that flight. The categorical TAFs that corresponded timewise to the developed probabilistic forecasts were obtained for each location. For this study, a categorical “yes” forecast denotes the expectation that the visibility and/or cloud ceiling conditions are such that extra fuel is required, while a categorical “no” forecast does not require extra fuel. The analysis presented herein indicates that by using statistical, probabilistic forecasts rather than categorical forecasts, a significant saving is made in operating costs. This is probably because of a more optimal balance between false alarms and misses for each flight, rather than more “accurate” forecasts per se. This is the mechanism by which probabilistic forecasts create value, rather than increasing the number of hits and correct rejections and/or decreasing the number of false alarms and misses. For each of the flights investigated in this study, the total cost of using probabilistic forecasts was less than that of using TAFs. An average of $23,000 is saved per flight during this 14-month period. Projecting these figures over all American Airlines flights, a potential annual savings of approximately $50 million in operating costs would be realized by using probabilistic forecasts of adverse landing weather conditions instead of the traditional TAF.

scholarly journals Odds Ratio Forecasts Increase Precautionary Action for Extreme Weather Events

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 263-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared LeClerc ◽  
Susan Joslyn
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Road Maintenance ◽  
Odds Ratios ◽  
Temperature Forecast ◽  
Single Target ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Precautionary Action

Abstract What is the best way to communicate the risk of rare but extreme weather to the public? One suggestion is to communicate the relative risk of extreme weather in the form of odds ratios; but, to the authors’ knowledge, this suggestion has never been tested systematically. The experiment reported here provides an empirical test of this hypothesis. Participants performed a realistic computer simulation task in which they assumed the role of the manager of a road maintenance company and used forecast information to decide whether to take precautionary action to prevent icy conditions on a town’s roads. Participants with forecasts expressed as odds ratios were more likely to take appropriate precautionary action on a single target trial with an extreme low temperature forecast than participants using deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. However, participants using probabilistic forecasts performed better on trials involving weather within the normal range than participants with only deterministic forecast information. These results may provide insight into how best to communicate extreme weather risk. This paper offers clear evidence that people given relative risk information are more inclined to take precautionary action when threatened with an extreme weather event with a low probability than people given only single-value or probabilistic forecasts.

scholarly journals The Use of Weather Website Data for Construction Project Decision-Making in The Short Term

2022 ◽  
Vol 961 (1) ◽  
pp. 012038
Author(s):  
Safaa S. Mohammed ◽  
Noor R. Kadhim ◽  
Abdulrasool Thamer Abdulrasool ◽  
Hasan Ibrahim Al Shaikhli
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Uv Index ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Location Data

Abstract In most work sites, it is a priority to keep the work going well and to avoid unforeseen incidents. Fluctuations in weather conditions are one of the factors affecting the continuity of work in construction projects. Indeed, for example, the temperature is important in concrete and asphalt works, and wind speed is important in lifting and high construction works. Therefore, taking the appropriate decision, starting and completing the work, is very important to maintain the quality of the project. This research aims to demonstrate the reliability of short-term decision-making through data taken from the weather site five days before the time to work. The data was collected for a month, five days before the intended day and on the same day, day and night, for different weather factors by weather location such as temperature, humidity, possibility of rain, Uv index, wind speed. By analyzing the data, it was found that there was little difference in those predictors of all the factors recorded. To conclude at the end of the study that it is possible to rely on the decision-making on the weather location in small and medium projects, but in large and sensitive projects, they need to rely on more accurate data than relying on weather location data.

The Legislative Decision-Making Process

1982 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 7-8
Author(s):  
Richard DeGraw ◽  
Bette F. DeGraw
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
American Indians ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Community Organization ◽  
Role Play ◽  
The Political ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
List Type ◽  
Provision Of Services ◽  
Legislative Decision

The Legislative Decision Making Process is an educational role play for graduate or undergraduate students concerning the political and pressure relationships involved in the political decision-making process. The role play reviews the implications of the decision-making processes upon the provision of services by governmental agencies.The role play engages from twenty to sixty students in a simulated budget-making and lobbying experience and utilizes this experience to teach students:1.The values and pressures considered by bureaucracies and the Legislature in decision-making;2.The relationships which exist between clients, community groups, administrators and politicians;3.The various techniques of Community Organization for lobbying and Legislative influence.The role play consists of various groups of students in roles which include legislators, administrators of three major state departments, two minor state departments, parent groups, Concerned Citizen groups, American Indians disabled individuals and ex-clients.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document