The Clinical Prediction of Dangerousness

1978 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murray L. Cohen ◽  
A. Nicholas Groth ◽  
Richard Siegel
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Violent Behavior ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Critical Studies ◽  
Dangerous Offenders ◽  
Statistical Studies ◽  
Success Of Treatment

Laws committing dangerous sexual offenders indefinitely are legitimate only insofar as "dangerousness" can be predicted and treated. The court has relied on the clinician to identify and measure the crucial variables in violent behavior and assign a probability of occurrence. Yet most critical studies have concluded that not only has predictive accuracy not been demonstrated but also that such accuracy cannot be achieved. We argue that any conclusion at this time is premature. There are data indicating the soundness of clinical as opposed to statistical prediction of dangerous ness. Both approaches show high false positive error rates, but the im provement in accuracy of clinical studies over statistical studies cannot be denied. In examining the success of treatment, the authors present data indi cating that a program of psychological rehabilitation can have a profound effect on the majority of dangerous sexual offenders. The authors conclude that the indefinite commitment of dangerous offenders is legitimate and appropriate, but the policy carries with it heavy responsibilities. Enforcing such an approach means that the clinician must play an important role in his relationship to the court.

Forensic science evidence: Naive estimates of false positive error rates and reliability

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristy Martire ◽  
Agnes Bali ◽  
Kaye Ballantyne ◽  
Gary Edmond ◽  
Richard Kemp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forensic Science ◽  
False Positive ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Forensic Sciences ◽  
Positive Error ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Reliability Estimates ◽  
Positive Report ◽  
Science Evidence ◽  
Science Disciplines

We do not know how often false positive reports are made in a range of forensic science disciplines. In the absence of this information it is important to understand the naive beliefs held by potential jurors about forensic science evidence reliability. It is these beliefs that will shape evaluations at trial. This descriptive study adds to our knowledge about naive beliefs by: 1) measuring jury-eligible (lay) perceptions of reliability for the largest range of forensic science disciplines to date, over three waves of data collection between 2011 and 2016 (n = 674); 2) calibrating reliability ratings with false positive report estimates; and 3) comparing lay reliability estimates with those of an opportunity sample of forensic practitioners (n = 53). Overall the data suggest that both jury-eligible participants and practitioners consider forensic evidence highly reliable. When compared to best or plausible estimates of reliability and error in the forensic sciences these views appear to overestimate reliability and underestimate the frequency of false positive errors. This result highlights the importance of collecting and disseminating empirically derived estimates of false positive error rates to ensure that practitioners and potential jurors have a realistic impression of the value of forensic science evidence.

scholarly journals The Predictive Accuracy of the Violent Offender Treatment Program Risk Assessment Scale

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
ANN WARD ◽  
JOHN DOCKERILL
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Treatment Program ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Violent Behavior ◽  
Violent Offenders ◽  
Assessment Scale ◽  
Violent Offender ◽  
Offender Treatment ◽  
Cutoff Score

Current methods for screening violent offenders for program eligibility are expensive and time consuming. Developers of the Violent Offender Treatment Program (VOTP) have designed a brief and economical instrument to screen offenders for program eligibility. The present study was undertaken to assess the reliability and predictive accuracy of the VOTP Risk Assessment Scale (RAS). An interrater reliability of 20 court histories attained a mean kappa of .81. The RAS was applied to court histories of 202 violent offenders released between 1985 and 1987. A 10-year follow-up of convictions for violent behavior yielded a 47% base rate. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves showed that for varying time-at-risk periods, the predictive accuracy remained between .72 and .76. The recommended cutoff score for all time-at-risk periods was 11. The relatively high accuracy rate of the VOTP RAS indicated that it was accurate enough to aid program eligibility decisions.

Error Rates in Competency Testing When Test Retaking Is Permitted

1990 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huynh Huynh
Keyword(s):  
Conditional Probability ◽  
False Positive ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Rasch Models ◽  
Positive Error ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Competency Testing ◽  
Negative Error ◽  
False Negative Error

False positive and false negative error rates are studied for competency testing where examinees are permitted to retake the test if they fail to pass. Formulae are provided for the beta-binomial and Rasch models, and estimates based on these two models are compared for several typical situations. Although Rasch estimates are expected to be more accurate than beta-binomial estimates, differences among them are found not to be substantial in a number of practical situations. Under relatively general conditions and when test retaking is permitted, the probability of making a false negative error is zero. Under the same situation, and given that an examinee is a true nonmaster, the conditional probability of making a false positive error for this examinee is one.

Derivation and Validation of Risk Scores for Cause-Specific Mortality using Verbal Autopsy Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tshifhiwa Nkwenika ◽  
Samuel Manda
Keyword(s):  
Verbal Autopsy ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Vital Statistics ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Developmental Policies ◽  
Burden Of Diseases

Abstract BackgroundDeaths certification remains a challenge mostly in the low-resources countries which results in poor availability and incompleteness of vital statistics. In such sceneries, public health and developmental policies concerning the burden of diseases are limited in their derivation and application. The study aimed at developing and evaluating appropriate cause-specific mortality risk scores using Verbal Autopsy (VA) data. MethodsA logistic regression model was used to identify independent predictors of NCDs, AIDS/TB, and CDs specific causes of death. Risk scores were derived using a point scoring system. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to validate the models by matching the number of reported deaths to the number of deaths predicted by the models. ResultsThe models provided accurate prediction results with sensitivities of 86%, 46%, and 40% and false-positive error rates of 44%, 11%, and 12% for NCDs, AIDS/TB, and CDs respectively. ConclusionThis study has shown that, in low- and medium-income countries, simple risk scores using information collected using verbal autopsy questionnaire could be adequately used to assign causes of death for Non-Communicable Diseases and AIDS/TB

Forensic science evidence: Naive estimates of false positive error rates and reliability

2019 ◽  
Vol 302 ◽  
pp. 109877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristy A. Martire ◽  
Kaye N. Ballantyne ◽  
Agnes Bali ◽  
Gary Edmond ◽  
Richard I. Kemp ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forensic Science ◽  
False Positive ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Positive Error ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Science Evidence

Factors Predicting Desistance From Reoffending: A Validation Study of the SAPROF in Sexual Offenders

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 697-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dahlnym Yoon ◽  
Daniel Turner ◽  
Verena Klein ◽  
Martin Rettenberger ◽  
Reinhard Eher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Interrater Reliability ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Incremental Validity ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Limited Extent ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools

The present study aims at validating the German version of the Structured Assessment of PROtective Factors (SAPROF) for violence risk in a representative sample of incarcerated adult male sexual offenders. Sexual offenders ( n = 450) were rated retrospectively with the SAPROF using the database of the Federal Evaluation Centre for Violent and Sexual Offenders (FECVSO) in the Austrian Prison System. Interrater reliability and predictive validity of the SAPROF scores concerning desistance from recidivism were calculated. Concurrent and incremental validity were tested using the combination of the SAPROF and the Sexual Violence Risk–20 (SVR-20). Interrater reliability was moderate to excellent, and predictive accuracy for various types of recidivism was rather small to moderate. There was a clear negative relationship between the SAPROF and the SVR-20 risk factors. Whereas the SAPROF revealed itself as a significant predictor for various recidivism categories, it did not add any predictive value beyond the SVR-20. Although the SAPROF itself can predict desistance from recidivism, it seems to contribute to the risk assessment in convicted sexual offenders only to a limited extent, once customary risk assessment tools have been applied. Implications for clinical use and further studies are discussed.

Errors in prostate core biopsy diagnosis in an era of specialisation and double reporting

2020 ◽  
pp. jclinpath-2020-206726
Author(s):  
Cornelia Margaret Szecsei ◽  
Jon D Oxley
Keyword(s):  
Error Rate ◽  
False Positive ◽  
Core Biopsy ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Diagnostic Error ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Biopsy Diagnosis ◽  
False Negative Error ◽  
False Positive Error Rate

AimTo examine the effects of specialist reporting on error rates in prostate core biopsy diagnosis.MethodBiopsies were reported by eight specialist uropathologists over 3 years. New cancer diagnoses were double-reported and all biopsies were reviewed for the multidisciplinary team (MDT) meeting. Diagnostic alterations were recorded in supplementary reports and error rates were compared with a decade previously.Results2600 biopsies were reported. 64.1% contained adenocarcinoma, a 19.7% increase. The false-positive error rate had reduced from 0.4% to 0.06%. The false-negative error rate had increased from 1.5% to 1.8%, but represented fewer absolute errors due to increased cancer incidence.ConclusionsSpecialisation and double-reporting have reduced false-positive errors. MDT review of negative cores continues to identify a very low number of false-negative errors. Our data represents a ‘gold standard’ for prostate biopsy diagnostic error rates. Increased use of MRI-targeted biopsies may alter error rates and their future clinical significance.

Dangerous Mistakes

1991 ◽  
Vol 158 (6) ◽  
pp. 752-757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nigel Walker
Keyword(s):  
Moral Reasoning ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Dangerous Offenders

The shortening of the periods of detention for treatment, deterrence or retribution have made a live issue of whether (or when) it is justifiable to detain violent and sexual offenders solely for the protection of others. Anti-protectionist arguments have made ‘dangerousness' a dirty word, but are based either on actuarial statistics of doubtful relevance or on confused moral reasoning. A typology of ‘dangerousness' is tentatively offered, and the impossibility of adequately supervising some dangerous offenders in the community is emphasised. That said, offenders detained solely for the sake of others are entitled to more than merely ‘humane containment’.

scholarly journals TKGWV2: An ancient DNA relatedness pipeline for ultra-low coverage whole genome shotgun data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel M Fernandes ◽  
Olivia Cheronet ◽  
Pere Gelabert ◽  
Ron Pinhasi
Keyword(s):  
Ancient Dna ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Whole Genome Shotgun ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
Kinship Analysis ◽  
Methodological Improvement ◽  
Low Coverage

Estimation of genetically related individuals is playing an increasingly important role in the ancient DNA field. In recent years, the numbers of sequenced individuals from single sites have been increasing, reflecting a growing interest in understanding the familial and social organisation of ancient populations. Although a few different methods have been specifically developed for ancient DNA, namely to tackle issues such as low-coverage homozygous data, they require a 0.1 - 1x minimum average genomic coverage per analysed pair of individuals between. Here we present an updated version of a method that enables estimates of 1st and 2nd-degrees of relatedness with as little as 0.026x average coverage, or around 1.3 million aligned reads per sample - 4 times less data than 0.1x. By using simulated data to estimate false positive error rates, we further show that a threshold even as low as 0.012x, or around 600,000 reads, will always show 1st-degree relationships as related. Lastly, by applying this method to published data, we are able to identify previously undocumented relationships using individuals previously excluded from kinship analysis due to their very low coverage. This methodological improvement has the potential to enable relatedness estimation on ancient whole genome shotgun data during routine low-coverage screening, and therefore improve project management when decisions need to be made on which individuals are to be further sequenced.

The Predictive Validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and Static-2002/R: Which One to Use?

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 887-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie G. Reeves ◽  
James R. P. Ogloff ◽  
Melanie Simmons
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sexual Offenders ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Sexual Offending ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Risk Categories

The use of Static tools (Static-99, Static-99R, Static-2002, and Static-2002R) in risk decision making involving sexual offenders is widespread internationally. This study compared the predictive accuracy and incremental validity of four Static risk measures in a sample of 621 Australian sexual offenders. Results indicated that approximately 45% of the sample recidivated (with 18.8% committing sexual offenses). All of the Static measures investigated yielded moderate predictive validity for sexual recidivism, which was comparable with other Australian and overseas studies. Area under the curve (AUC) values for the four measures across the 5-, 10-, and 15-year intervals ranged from .67 to .69. All of the Static measures discriminated quite well between low-risk and high-risk sexual offenders but less well for the moderate risk categories. When pitted together, none of the tools accounted for additional variance in sexual recidivism, above and beyond what the other measures accounted for. The overall results provide support for the use of Static measures as a component of risk assessment and decision making with Australian sexual offending populations. The limitations of this study and recommendations for further research are also discussed.

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