A Close-Up on a Predictive Moment: Illusion of Knowing or Lack of Confidence in Self-Assessment?

2020 ◽  
pp. 002205742094484
Author(s):  
Maura A. E. Pilotti ◽  
Khadija El Alaoui ◽  
Huda Al Mulhem ◽  
Muamar Hasan Salameh
Keyword(s):  
College Students ◽  
Test Performance ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Final Test ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
The Past ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Illusion Of Knowing

Prediction allows learners to adjust behavior toward the future by exploiting information pertaining to the present and the past. Through a field study, we examined whether poor performing students are truly unaware of not knowing their deficiencies as the illusion of knowing (IoK) phenomenon implies. College students’ ability to predict their final test performance was surveyed as a function of experience (before and after the test), performance level, and self-efficacy. In this study, high performers’ prospective and retrospective predictions were more accurate and confident than those of poor performers. Although poor performers overestimated their grades (as predicted by IoK), they were less confident in their predictions. Furthermore, both their prediction accuracy and confidence benefited from the experience of taking the test. These findings, coupled with the lower self-efficacy of poor performers, suggest that prediction errors involving inflated estimations reflect the wishful thinking exhibited by students who are aware of their lack of competence but may have little confidence in their abilities.

scholarly journals The illusion of knowing in college: A field study of students with a teacher-centered educational past

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 789-807
Author(s):  
Maura A. E. Pilotti ◽  
Khadija El Alaoui ◽  
Huda Mulhem ◽  
Halah A. Al Kuhayli
Keyword(s):  
Test Performance ◽  
Core Curriculum ◽  
Assessment Practice ◽  
Final Test ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
Practice Condition ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Illusion Of Knowing ◽  
Teacher Centered

In the present study, the tendency to overestimate performance (illusion of knowing) was examined in college students whose educational past experiences had emphasized verbatim learning. Female students enrolled in core curriculum classes were sampled. Classes taught by the same instructor were randomly assigned to a self-assessment practice condition, where students predicted their test and class performance and were asked to reflect on discrepancies between predictions and actual performance, or to a control condition. At the end of the semester, irrespective of condition, as performance declined on the final test, predictions of final test grades became more inflated, but less confident, indicating that students were aware of their own deficiencies. Overall, students in the practice condition displayed not only greater prediction accuracy, but also greater final test performance than students in the control condition. Practice, however, benefited the most self-assessment accuracy of students whose final test grades were just above the passing grade. Although the responses to self-assessment practice of students with a teacher-centered educational past were largely similar to the responses of students from Western countries reported in the extant literature, differences in impact and meaning could be inferred.

scholarly journals Causal Attribution Preferences and Prospective Self-Assessment: The Unknowns of the Middle Eastern Learner

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 265
Author(s):  
Maura A. E. Pilotti ◽  
Khadija El Alaoui ◽  
Kerstin Hamann ◽  
Bruce Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Test Performance ◽  
Causal Attribution ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Task Demands ◽  
Metacognitive Awareness ◽  
Final Test ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Metacognitive Control ◽  
Subjective Confidence ◽  
Illusion Of Knowing

In the present field experiment, we examined the effects of a self-assessment exercise conducted in the middle of the semester on metacognitive awareness (i.e., the accuracy of self-assessment and its subjective confidence) and final test performance of college students of Middle Eastern descent. Effects were measured in the classroom against a business-as-usual control condition. It was hypothesized that if the exercise focuses students’ attention on internal causes (e.g., effort) in response to specific task demands, metacognitive awareness, metacognitive control, and, ultimately, final test performance would be enhanced. In poor performers, the exercise indeed improved the accuracy of self-assessment (as measured by grade estimates) and final performance. There was no evidence of the illusion of knowing phenomenon (i.e., the unrealistic belief that one knows or is able to perform a given task) among poor-performing students as their confidence in estimates remained low. Furthermore, the exercise did not change students’ causal attribution preferences, thereby suggesting that other dynamics are responsible for the effects of the self-assessment exercise.

An Exploration of Digital Storytelling Creation and Media Production Skill Sets in First Year College Students

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Spicer ◽  
Charles Miller
Keyword(s):  
College Students ◽  
Postsecondary Education ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Digital Storytelling ◽  
Media Production ◽  
First Year ◽  
Skill Sets ◽  
First Year College ◽  
Before And After ◽  
First Year College Students

Though recent advancements in media and computing technologies have fostered greater instructor adoption of student media assignments, few studies have examined the role these projects play in the development of student media production skill sets. This study surveyed 12 first year college students in a postsecondary education class, each responsible for producing a digital story project communicating issues related to water sustainability. Students responded to a self-efficacy survey questionnaire before and after the production process, rating their confidence on ability to perform specific required and optionally suggested production tasks related to media components in the assignment. A paired t-test was employed to compare student responses from the pre and post self-efficacy survey questionnaires. Results from this study indicate significant gains in student self-efficacy beliefs on media production tasks that were required, while response changes for the optional tasks were found to be not statistically significant. Findings from this study suggest that digital storytelling projects can be beneficial in the development of student media production skill sets. To optimize opportunities for this development, instructors are encouraged to consider specific required media components with relevant production tasks and skill sets when designing a digital storytelling assignment.

scholarly journals Assessing the Effectiveness of Programmed Instruction and Collaborative Peer Tutoring in Teaching Java

2008 ◽  
pp. 1712-1725
Author(s):  
Henry H. Emurian
Keyword(s):  
Peer Tutoring ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Programmed Instruction ◽  
Tutoring System ◽  
Program Understanding ◽  
Final Test ◽  
Java Programming ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Lecture Session ◽  
The Web

Students in two Java programming classes completed an individualized tutoring system that taught a simple applet program. Before and after using the tutor, students completed questionnaires that assessed software self-efficacy and understanding of general programming principles. The questionnaires also were administered following a lecture session on the program that included having the students successfully run the applet in a browser on the Web. For the second class, a collaborative peer tutoring session based on the applet program occurred between completion of the tutor and the lecture session. Students in both classes increased in software self-efficacy and program understanding across the assessment occasions. For students in the second class, correct answers on the final test of understanding were higher than observed in the first class. Collaborative peer tutoring used in combination with a programmed instruction tutoring system may potentiate learning for novitiate students.

scholarly journals Self-efficacy assessment hinders improvement on a deliberate cricket bowling practice task

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhruv Raman ◽  
Bittu Kaveri Rajaraman
Keyword(s):  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Deliberate Practice ◽  
Sport Performance ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
Impact Performance ◽  
Practice Task ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Cricket Bowling ◽  
Experimental Group

Self-related thoughts such as performance worries or attention to one’s own body movements during sport have been known to impact performance negatively. However, self-assessment is often encouraged during learning tasks, especially when being coached on sporting tasks. In this study we examined how attention directed towards an internal psychological aspect, self-efficacy, affected performance in a cricket bowling task. We hypothesised that cricketers who are asked to assess their own ability on a bowling task would show a deterioration in performance compared to control subjects who are asked to assess the ability of another. Participants were asked to rate their self- efficacy levels in the middle of a deliberate practice task. In the pre-test phase, participants attempted to bowl in a game-standard designated “good length” zone across twelve trials. Following this, experimental group members rated their own general and task-specific self-efficacy using Bandura’s self-efficacy questionnaire, while the control group rated someone else’s ability. They each then bowled for twelve more trials, and their performance was measured before and after the self-assessment based on the number of trials that were bowled within the standard “good length” zone. Paired t-tests showed that while the performance of the control group improved significantly from pre-test to post-test, t = 2.613, p = 0.008; the experimental group did not show a significant improvement, t = 1.156, p = 0.131. Results indicate that asking people to rate their confidence level may hinder their improvement on a deliberate practice task. This has implications for sport performance where athletes or coaches might be tempted to self-evaluate before performance, as well as for researchers who consider administering self-efficacy questionnaires prior to performance.

scholarly journals Traffic Status Evolution Trend Prediction Based on Congestion Propagation Effects under Rainy Weather

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Yongjie Xue ◽  
Rui Feng ◽  
Shaohua Cui ◽  
Bin Yu
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Trend Prediction ◽  
Traffic Demand ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rainy Weather ◽  
Evolution Trend

In rainy weather, the accurate prediction of traffic status not only helps road traffic managers to formulate traffic management methods but also helps travelers design travel routes and even adjust travel time. In this paper, based on six-dimensional data (e.g., past and present spatiotemporal traffic status, road network structure, pavement type, water accumulation, and rainfall level), a fuzzy neural network (FNN) prediction system is proposed to predict traffic status. The traffic status evolution trend is related not only to the existing traffic but also to the new traffic demand. Therefore, the FNN prediction system designed includes offline and online parts using the data of the past and the day separately and avoids the forecast of new traffic demand. The fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is applied to cluster traffic status data under similar rainy weather in the past to form an offline initial dataset, which is used to train FNN weight parameters. The online part uses real-time detection data and the parameters trained by the offline part to further predict the traffic status and returns the prediction errors to the offline part to correct the weight parameters to further improve prediction accuracy. Finally, the FNN prediction system is verified using real Beijing expressway network data. The verification results show that the prediction system can guarantee prediction accuracy and can be used to effectively identify traffic status.

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