The world economy

2000 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 3-3

•The world economy will experience a synchronised upturn for the first time since 1994, with growth accelerating in 2000 in all the major regions.•Despite global economic growth of over 4 per cent in 2000, inflation will remain under control at 2 per cent in the OECD area.•The US economy will expand by 4.5 per cent, spurring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 7 per cent by the beginning of next year.•The euro zone will grow by 3.4 per cent, prompting the European Central Bank to raise interest rates to 4 per cent by the end of 2000 and 4.5 per cent in 2001.•Although the Japanese economy has technically slipped back into recession, we expect growth of 1 per cent in 2000, strengthening to 2.4 per cent in 2001.

2002 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 2-3

The world economy is starting to pick up speed again: by 2003, it will be growing by 3.7 per cent, with world trade expanding by 8.5 per cent a year.This will prompt rises in interest rates in North America and Europe.The US will grow by 2.4 per cent this year, double the rate of last year, rising to 3.5 per cent in 2003.Recovery in the euro area will be gradual, with GDP growth rising from 1.4 per cent in 2002 to 2.5 per cent in 2003.The Japanese economy will shrink by 1.2 per cent in 2002, and recovery in 2003 will be relatively modest, with GDP growth of 1.3 per cent.


2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 2-3

• Global growth will remain rapid over the next two years, with world GDP rising by 4.8 per cent in 2006 and 4.5 per cent in 2007.• China's growing weight in the global economy is a key reason why interest rates have been unusually low.• The US economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2007.• Japan will expand by 2.9 per cent in 2006 and 2.3 per cent next year.• The Euro Area will grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent in 2007.


2010 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will expand by 3.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.8 per cent in 2011.World trade will increase by 9.6 per cent this year and 5.7 per cent in 2011.The Chinese economy will grow by 9.8 per cent in 2010 and 9 per cent next year.Japanese GDP will expand by 2 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2011.The US economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 2.7 per cent next year.The Euro Area will expand by 1.2 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2011.


2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.


2013 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

World growth remains below trend at 3.3 per cent in 2013 and 3.7 per cent in 2013, little changed from our previous forecast.World trade will only grow slightly faster, and again below trend.The Euro Area will grow only slightly next year, while Japan is forecast to grow by 1.4 per cent, the US by 2.4 per cent, and China by 7.3 per cent.Interest rates will remain extremely low by historical standards, and inflationary pressures will remain subdued.


2016 ◽  
Vol 237 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2016, an unchanged forecast from the May Review. However, world growth in 2017 is revised down to 3.3 per cent from 3.5 per cent.A number of financial sector risks remain. Many large Euro Area banks are fragile, with the banking system in Italy particularly weak. This is likely to test the viability of the Single Rulebook covering financial services.Inflation is likely to be below target in the OECD economies in 2017. The European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to ease monetary conditions while the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates very gradually.


1998 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 57-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Karen Dury ◽  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Dirk te Velde

The Asian crisis has had a marked effect on the world economy over the past fifteen months. Private sector demand has collapsed in the affected economies and reinforced the effects arising from the deflationary forces in the Japanese economy at present. Up until this summer it did not appear likely that the world economy as a whole would slide into a full scale recession, although it was clear that growth had begun to slow in the industrialised economies. There were also important downside risks in our forecasts at that time; in particular the danger that a policy of monetisation in Japan would further weaken the yen and set in motion renewed disruption by enforcing a devaluation of the Chinese yuan against the dollar. It was also clear that profit margins were coming under pressure in the US economy, raising the possibility that future dividends would be somewhat weaker than implied by the exceptionally rapid growth in real equity prices since 1994. Neither a Chinese devaluation nor an equity price collapse were however part of our central forecasts.


2010 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will expand by 5.0 per cent in 2010 and 4.4 per cent in 2011.World trade will increase by 14.2 per cent this year and 8.8 per cent in 2011.The Chinese economy will grow by 11.6 per cent in 2010 and 8.3 per cent next year.Japanese GDP will expand by 3.3 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent in 2011.The US economy will grow by 3.1 per cent in 2010 and 3.0 per cent next year.The Euro Area will expand by 1.3 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2011.


1998 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 3-3

•The most likely outlook for the world economy in 1999 is a marked slowdown, with growth slackening in the OECD from 2.4 to 1.8 per cent.•But there is also a high probability that further shocks to financial markets could induce a full blown recession in the US and a substantial reduction in European growth.•Sharp and swift cuts in interest rates are needed to avert this danger.•The ECB could cut rates by half a percentage point without compromising its inflation goals.


1999 ◽  
Vol 167 ◽  
pp. 3-3

•The prospects for the US economy in 1999 appear brighter than they did last October, but remain heavily dependent on the health of the stock market.•The Japanese economy is now expected to decline in 1999 by a further half a per cent following the 3 per cent fall in 1998.•There is a risk that Japan may enter a prolonged downward spiral without a prompt initiative to expand the money supply much more aggressively.•The Euro Area is slowing down to growth of little more than 2 per cent in 1999.•With consumer price inflation of only 1 per cent in the euro area, there is scope for a further half a percentage point cut in euro interest rates; we anticipate a quarter point reduction this spring.


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