The world economy

1999 ◽  
Vol 167 ◽  
pp. 3-3

•The prospects for the US economy in 1999 appear brighter than they did last October, but remain heavily dependent on the health of the stock market.•The Japanese economy is now expected to decline in 1999 by a further half a per cent following the 3 per cent fall in 1998.•There is a risk that Japan may enter a prolonged downward spiral without a prompt initiative to expand the money supply much more aggressively.•The Euro Area is slowing down to growth of little more than 2 per cent in 1999.•With consumer price inflation of only 1 per cent in the euro area, there is scope for a further half a percentage point cut in euro interest rates; we anticipate a quarter point reduction this spring.

2002 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 2-3

The world economy is starting to pick up speed again: by 2003, it will be growing by 3.7 per cent, with world trade expanding by 8.5 per cent a year.This will prompt rises in interest rates in North America and Europe.The US will grow by 2.4 per cent this year, double the rate of last year, rising to 3.5 per cent in 2003.Recovery in the euro area will be gradual, with GDP growth rising from 1.4 per cent in 2002 to 2.5 per cent in 2003.The Japanese economy will shrink by 1.2 per cent in 2002, and recovery in 2003 will be relatively modest, with GDP growth of 1.3 per cent.


2000 ◽  
Vol 172 ◽  
pp. 3-3

•The world economy will experience a synchronised upturn for the first time since 1994, with growth accelerating in 2000 in all the major regions.•Despite global economic growth of over 4 per cent in 2000, inflation will remain under control at 2 per cent in the OECD area.•The US economy will expand by 4.5 per cent, spurring the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to 7 per cent by the beginning of next year.•The euro zone will grow by 3.4 per cent, prompting the European Central Bank to raise interest rates to 4 per cent by the end of 2000 and 4.5 per cent in 2001.•Although the Japanese economy has technically slipped back into recession, we expect growth of 1 per cent in 2000, strengthening to 2.4 per cent in 2001.


2007 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 2-3 ◽  

•Global GDP will rise by 5.0 per cent in 2007 and by 4.8 per cent in 2008.•Chinese GDP growth will remain around 10 per cent a year in 2007 ard 2008.•The US economy will expand by 2.6 per cent a year in 2007 and 2008.•The Euro Area will grow by 2.5 per cent in 2007 and 2.3 per cent in 2008; consumer-price inflation will be fall to 1.8•The Euro Area fiscal deficit will narrow to 1.2 per cent of GDP in 2007, down from 3.1 per cent in 2003.•Japan will grow by 2.3 per cent in 2007 and 2.4 per cent in 2008.•Housing investment growth propects are a risk to this forecast, with Spain and the US being the most vulnerable.


2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 2-3

• Global growth will remain rapid over the next two years, with world GDP rising by 4.8 per cent in 2006 and 4.5 per cent in 2007.• China's growing weight in the global economy is a key reason why interest rates have been unusually low.• The US economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year and 2.9 per cent in 2007.• Japan will expand by 2.9 per cent in 2006 and 2.3 per cent next year.• The Euro Area will grow by 2.1 per cent this year and 2.0 per cent in 2007.


2010 ◽  
Vol 212 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will expand by 3.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.8 per cent in 2011.World trade will increase by 9.6 per cent this year and 5.7 per cent in 2011.The Chinese economy will grow by 9.8 per cent in 2010 and 9 per cent next year.Japanese GDP will expand by 2 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent in 2011.The US economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 2.7 per cent next year.The Euro Area will expand by 1.2 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2011.


2013 ◽  
Vol 223 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

World growth remains below trend at 3.3 per cent in 2013 and 3.7 per cent in 2013, little changed from our previous forecast.World trade will only grow slightly faster, and again below trend.The Euro Area will grow only slightly next year, while Japan is forecast to grow by 1.4 per cent, the US by 2.4 per cent, and China by 7.3 per cent.Interest rates will remain extremely low by historical standards, and inflationary pressures will remain subdued.


2010 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy will expand by 5.0 per cent in 2010 and 4.4 per cent in 2011.World trade will increase by 14.2 per cent this year and 8.8 per cent in 2011.The Chinese economy will grow by 11.6 per cent in 2010 and 8.3 per cent next year.Japanese GDP will expand by 3.3 per cent this year and 1.1 per cent in 2011.The US economy will grow by 3.1 per cent in 2010 and 3.0 per cent next year.The Euro Area will expand by 1.3 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2011.


2012 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

World growth is expected to remain below trend at 3.1 per cent in 2012 and 3.4 per cent in 2013.The Euro Area is forecast to contract by 0.5 per cent this year and grow only marginally next year with unemployment reaching ‘depression-era’ rates in some periphery economies. The US is likely to grow by 2 per cent in each year.Growth in Brazil, Russia, India and China will be below long-term potential next year, although ‘hard-landings’ will be avoided; the impact on advanced economies will be offset by a large gain in competitiveness.Debt to GDP ratios in OECD countries will, on average, be higher in 2014 than at present.


2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.


2011 ◽  
Vol 56 (189) ◽  
pp. 7-26
Author(s):  
Djordje Djukic ◽  
Malisa Djukic

Despite the anti-crisis measures in the US and the euro area that were the policy response to the global financial crisis in 2007 and 2008, the stress on the interbank money market was still present in 2009 and 2010. The increasing inflationary pressures will require an increase in the ECB key interest rate in the second half of 2011. The over indebted euro area countries will have to raise funds by issuing and selling bonds with high yields. Taking into account such an environment, in this paper we analyze the relevant interbank money market stress indicators during 2010 and the beginning of 2011, in order to estimate the effects of money markets interest rate movements on credit market interest rates, primarily in the euro area, during the post-crisis period.


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