Prospects for the UK economy

2008 ◽  
Vol 203 ◽  
pp. 35-53
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khoman ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
Fixed Investment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trend Growth

Despite the turmoil in global financial markets during the second half of 2007, UK GDP continued to grow at a robust pace. The above trend growth of 2006 continued into the first three quarters of last year and the preliminary estimate of GDP growth shows only a limited moderation into the fourth quarter of last year (figure 1). This suggests we will see a growth rate of 3.1 per cent for 2007 as a whole, a slight acceleration from 2.9 per cent in 2006. This robust growth has been sustained by household consumption and, to a lesser extent, gross fixed investment.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 202 ◽  
pp. 42-60
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khoman ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
The Third ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Domestic Impact

GDP growth in the second quarter of this year remained robust at a quarterly rate of growth of 0.8 per cent. With revisions to previous quarters, economic growth has been maintained at this rate since the end of 2006. NIESR's monthly estimate of GDP showed this robust growth continuing into the third quarter of this year. The official preliminary estimate confirms the pattern of robust growth continuing into the third quarter of this year (figure 1). In light of this we have revised our forecast for GDP growth this year up from 2.8 per cent to 3.1 per cent. We have revised down our forecast for GDP growth in 2008 from 2.6 to 2.2 per cent. This reflects weaker net trade, with the recent financial turmoil having only a small domestic impact.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2010 ◽  
Vol 211 ◽  
pp. F43-F62
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nathan Foley-Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Household Sector ◽  
Standard Rate ◽  
Distribution Sector ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Car Scrappage ◽  
The Impact

The preliminary estimate of GDP confirms that the UK economy finally stopped contracting in the fourth quarter of 2009, bringing to an end six quarters of continuous contraction (figure 1) but 0.1 per cent growth is disappointing. The estimate suggested that the economy contracted by 4.8 per cent in 2009. Growth was driven by the distribution and government sectors. The main contributors from the distribution sector were the retail and motor trades. This is consistent with the impact of the cut in the standard rate of VAT and the car scrappage scheme, both of which should have brought durables purchases forward into the last quarter of 2009. It also highlights the risk that, as the fiscal stimulus ends, the UK economy could stall and possibly even contract for a quarter or two. As figure 1 shows, we do not expect this to happen. We expect growth of 1.1 per cent per annum this year; stronger growth is inconsistent with a household sector undergoing a period of retrenchment and increased savings. Contributions to economic growth are expected to be the result of the inventory cycle and the influence of net trade.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2005 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 37-53
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Robert Metz ◽  
Rebecca Riley
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Poor ◽  
The Uk

GDP growth slowed below trend in the second half of last year. At the time of writing, before the initial estimates of GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2004 are released, we estimate that GDP expanded by 0.4 per cent in the final quarter of last year. The weakness in GDP growth reflects in large part the poor performance of industrial production in the second half of last year.

Implications for Growth

2019 ◽  
pp. 88-89
Author(s):  
Andrew Smithers
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The Us ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Hurdle Rate ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trend Growth

Without policy measures to offset the negative impact of the bonus culture, investment, productivity, and growth are likely to remain depressed. Given the slow growth of the working age population, the UK’s trend growth rate will thus be 1 per cent and that of the US 0.87 per cent, unless productivity improves. An alternative method of estimating US trend growth from the value data for tangible capital stock provides a slightly better rate of 1.1 per cent per annum. The prospects for the UK and US are so poor that policy measures to stimulate growth are vital. All growth is the result of changes in either TFP or NTV, so one or other must improve to avoid stagnation. There is no way to improve the former, but changes in NTV can be brought about through a lower hurdle rate, which requires the damage from the bonus culture to end.

Czech economy in 1998: risks and challenges

1998 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Janáček ◽  
Martin Čihák ◽  
Marie Frýdmanová ◽  
Tomáš Holub ◽  
Eva Zamrazilová
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation ◽  
Main Components ◽  
Double Digit

Characteristic for 1997 was a significant slowdown of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth: within the first three quarters, GDP grew by 1.1 %, and our estimate for the whole year is 1.4 %. At the same time 1997 was a turning year with respect to some components of Gross Domestic Product. The growth rate of household consumption decreased substantially (by almost one half). After three years of very dynamic, double-digit growth of gross fixed capital formation, in 1997 investment in fixed capital was falling (a decrease of almost 5%). Government consumption practically stagnated. Growing exports were among the main components of GDP growth, especially in the second halt of 1997.

Section II. The forecast in detail

2003 ◽  
Vol 184 ◽  
pp. 45-57
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Rates Of Growth ◽  
Trend Growth

Annual GDP in 2002 grew by 1.8 per cent as compared to a trend growth rate of about 2½ per cent. The weakness of the economy was due to falling private investment and exports. A reasonable rate of growth was sustained due to the strength of household consumption expenditure, which grew by 3.8 per cent. Our estimate of growth in the first quarter of this year of 0.3 per cent does not suggest that the economy has recovered to trend rates of growth.

The UK Economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 34-40
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Rebecca Riley ◽  
Martin Weale
Keyword(s):  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
The Third ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Bounce Back ◽  
Low Rate

The underlying pattern of growth over the course of last summer has proven difficult to interpret from the national accounts data. What at first appears to be a recovery, from the low rate of growth seen at the beginning of last year, gaining momentum over the summer, is instead likely to be an initial bounce back in the second quarter followed by further weakness in growth. The Office for National Statistics estimates that without the disruption associated with the Jubilee holiday, quarterly GDP growth would have decelerated from 0.8–1.3 per cent in the second quarter to 0.2–0.5 per cent in the third quarter last year. This is in contrast with the acceleration in growth from 0.6 to 0.9 per cent per quarter over the same period suggested by the national accounts, portraying a rather different picture of the economic recovery. Preliminary estimates of GDP suggest that the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. This is as we anticipated when preparing the forecast, which was completed before the fourth quarter estimates of GDP were released. Taken together, the figures for the fourth quarter and the estimates of growth in the absence of the disruption associated with the Jubilee holiday suggests that the recovery has been slow to gather pace in the second half of the year. In the year as a whole, GDP grew by an estimated 1.7 per cent.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2011 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. F39-F61
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Rachel Whitworth
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
The Third ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Uk

The performance of the UK economy has deteriorated markedly since autumn 2010. The volatility of output due to the adverse weather experienced last winter masks the underlying weakness in the UK economy. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) preliminary estimate of GDP suggests the underlying level of output has been flat since the third quarter of 2010. We expect the economy to grow from the second quarter of this year onwards, as we can see from figure 1, but we continue to expect this growth to be relatively weak. We expect GDP growth of 1.4 per cent per annum this year, rising to 2 per cent in 2012.

The UK Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 157 ◽  
pp. 11-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Inflationary Pressure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trend Growth

Since the beginning of 1995 output has been growing at a quarterly rate of just under ½ per cent, slightly less than most estimates of the trend growth rate that the economy can sustain in the long run. As a consequence, there has been no progress in closing any pre-existing output gap. Over this period, there has been a lack of any domestically generated inflationary pressure. Indeed, if import prices had not risen sharply in 1995, the underlying rate of inflation would have remained below 2½ per cent.

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