Prospects for the UK Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 202 ◽  
pp. 42-60
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khoman ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
The Third ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Domestic Impact

GDP growth in the second quarter of this year remained robust at a quarterly rate of growth of 0.8 per cent. With revisions to previous quarters, economic growth has been maintained at this rate since the end of 2006. NIESR's monthly estimate of GDP showed this robust growth continuing into the third quarter of this year. The official preliminary estimate confirms the pattern of robust growth continuing into the third quarter of this year (figure 1). In light of this we have revised our forecast for GDP growth this year up from 2.8 per cent to 3.1 per cent. We have revised down our forecast for GDP growth in 2008 from 2.6 to 2.2 per cent. This reflects weaker net trade, with the recent financial turmoil having only a small domestic impact.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2011 ◽  
Vol 217 ◽  
pp. F46-F67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Rachel Whitworth
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
The Third ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Weak Growth ◽  
The Uk

The persistent weakness of UK economic growth figures has dominated recent economic commentary. This debate continued with the release of the Office for National Statistics‘ (ONS) preliminary estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter of this year. The ONS estimates that the economy enjoyed only a modest expansion in the second quarter: 0.2 per cent per quarter. This implies the level of output is little changed from the third quarter of 2010. ‘One-off effects’ are partly responsible for the weak growth in the second quarter. We expect GDP growth to accelerate in the third quarter of this year (see figure 1), but this increase is likely to be flattered by the events of the second quarter.

The UK Economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 34-40
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Rebecca Riley ◽  
Martin Weale
Keyword(s):  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
The Third ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Bounce Back ◽  
Low Rate

The underlying pattern of growth over the course of last summer has proven difficult to interpret from the national accounts data. What at first appears to be a recovery, from the low rate of growth seen at the beginning of last year, gaining momentum over the summer, is instead likely to be an initial bounce back in the second quarter followed by further weakness in growth. The Office for National Statistics estimates that without the disruption associated with the Jubilee holiday, quarterly GDP growth would have decelerated from 0.8–1.3 per cent in the second quarter to 0.2–0.5 per cent in the third quarter last year. This is in contrast with the acceleration in growth from 0.6 to 0.9 per cent per quarter over the same period suggested by the national accounts, portraying a rather different picture of the economic recovery. Preliminary estimates of GDP suggest that the economy expanded by 0.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year. This is as we anticipated when preparing the forecast, which was completed before the fourth quarter estimates of GDP were released. Taken together, the figures for the fourth quarter and the estimates of growth in the absence of the disruption associated with the Jubilee holiday suggests that the recovery has been slow to gather pace in the second half of the year. In the year as a whole, GDP grew by an estimated 1.7 per cent.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2011 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. F39-F61
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Rachel Whitworth
Keyword(s):  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
The Third ◽  
National Statistics ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Uk

The performance of the UK economy has deteriorated markedly since autumn 2010. The volatility of output due to the adverse weather experienced last winter masks the underlying weakness in the UK economy. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) preliminary estimate of GDP suggests the underlying level of output has been flat since the third quarter of 2010. We expect the economy to grow from the second quarter of this year onwards, as we can see from figure 1, but we continue to expect this growth to be relatively weak. We expect GDP growth of 1.4 per cent per annum this year, rising to 2 per cent in 2012.

UK Economy Forecast

2006 ◽  
Vol 198 ◽  
pp. 40-58
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Rebecca Riley
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Annual Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Central Projection ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The Third

GDP growth accelerated from 1.6 per cent in the year to the second quarter of 2005 to 2.6 per cent in the year to the second quarter of 2006. At the time of writing the official preliminary estimates suggest economic growth was 0.7 per cent in the third quarter of this year. This is a little stronger than implied by our forecast, which is based on monthly estimates of GDP. But, taking on board the preliminary estimate in our forecast would have only a small effect on the annual growth figure for this year. Looking further forward we expect relatively stable GDP growth at around the economy's trend rate (figure 1). Our central projection is for growth of 2.6 per cent in 2007, 2008 and over the medium term. The outlook for GDP growth is not very different from our previous forecast published in the July Review.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2007 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 34-52
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Uk

GDP growth in 2006 is estimated to have been 2.8 per cent per annum. This rate of growth is above our estimates of the trend rate of growth in the UK. On a quarterly basis the latest estimates suggest that growth above the trend rate occurred in the first half of 2006, with both quarters' growth rates at 0.8 per cent (see figure 1). The second half of the year saw quarterly growth rates at around the trend rate of 0.6 to 0.7 per cent. NIESR's estimate of monthly GDP implied that quarterly growth in the first quarter of this year was somewhat lower at 0.5 per cent because of a weak January. After this poor quarterly performance we expect an increase in economic growth due to household and government demand. Overall, this suggests a downward revision to our January forecast of 0.1 percentage points, although this is of little economic importance. We continue to expect the economy to moderate over the next three years. Our forecast is for GDP to grow by 2.7 per cent per annum this year, slowing to 2.6 and 2.4 per cent per annum in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

Prospects for the UK economy

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 39-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Volume Growth ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Retail Sales ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Uk

The economy is slowing as expected. NIESR's estimate of monthly GDP suggests that the rate of economic growth slowed from 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year to 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year (figure 1), the weakest rate of growth since the second quarter of 2001. Recent data on the state of the economy is mixed. Retail sales volume growth surged to 1.8 per cent per quarter in the three months to May 2008, up from a rate of growth of 1.2 per cent in the preceding three months. The index of production, however, recorded a fall of 0.5 per cent in the three months to May 2008. The index of services suggests services output growth has continued to be relatively subdued. The quarterly rate of growth in the three months to April was 0.3 per cent, half the rate of growth in the final quarter of 2007. While the retail sales data are not yet consistent with a consumer led slowdown, the decline of hotel and restaurant output in the three months to April suggests that other components of consumer spending are slowing.

Prospects for the UK Economy

2010 ◽  
Vol 211 ◽  
pp. F43-F62
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Nathan Foley-Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Household Sector ◽  
Standard Rate ◽  
Distribution Sector ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Car Scrappage ◽  
The Impact

The preliminary estimate of GDP confirms that the UK economy finally stopped contracting in the fourth quarter of 2009, bringing to an end six quarters of continuous contraction (figure 1) but 0.1 per cent growth is disappointing. The estimate suggested that the economy contracted by 4.8 per cent in 2009. Growth was driven by the distribution and government sectors. The main contributors from the distribution sector were the retail and motor trades. This is consistent with the impact of the cut in the standard rate of VAT and the car scrappage scheme, both of which should have brought durables purchases forward into the last quarter of 2009. It also highlights the risk that, as the fiscal stimulus ends, the UK economy could stall and possibly even contract for a quarter or two. As figure 1 shows, we do not expect this to happen. We expect growth of 1.1 per cent per annum this year; stronger growth is inconsistent with a household sector undergoing a period of retrenchment and increased savings. Contributions to economic growth are expected to be the result of the inventory cycle and the influence of net trade.

The UK Economy

2002 ◽  
Vol 182 ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Martin Weale
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Uk

After a pronounced slowdown at the turn of the year, economic growth has recovered during the course of 2002. Revised estimates now suggest that GDP rose by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter and, based on our monthly GDP projections, we estimate that growth was 0.5 per cent in the third quarter, marginally below trend rates. It now appears increasingly unlikely that the Budget forecast of 2-2½ per cent growth in 2002 can be attained, and we expect to see growth of 1.4 per cent for the year as a whole.

Prospects for the UK economy

2008 ◽  
Vol 203 ◽  
pp. 35-53
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khoman ◽  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Preliminary Estimate ◽  
Fixed Investment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trend Growth

Despite the turmoil in global financial markets during the second half of 2007, UK GDP continued to grow at a robust pace. The above trend growth of 2006 continued into the first three quarters of last year and the preliminary estimate of GDP growth shows only a limited moderation into the fourth quarter of last year (figure 1). This suggests we will see a growth rate of 3.1 per cent for 2007 as a whole, a slight acceleration from 2.9 per cent in 2006. This robust growth has been sustained by household consumption and, to a lesser extent, gross fixed investment.

Does Manufacturing Matter?

1987 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 47-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
David G. Mayes
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
High Technology ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Second Line ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Uk

It is a trivial truth that manufacturing matters while at current relative prices there are plenty of willing purchasers of manufactured goods. The question addressed in this article is whether it is important how much of that demand for manufactures is met from UK sources. There seem to be three general lines of argument which have been pursued. The first is that if manufacturing is low in relative importance then, since the UK is an open economy, it is relatively difficult for other sectors to generate the foreign exchange necessary to pay for the desired net imports of manufactures. In these circumstances the balance of payments acts as a brake on economic growth. The second line of argument is that because of its inherently faster rate of growth of productivity, particularly at the high technology end of the spectrum, an emphasis on manufacturing allows the economy to grow faster. The third argument is largely distributional; namely, that a decline in manufacturing would have wide knock-on effects on other firms and on employment.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document