The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 237 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
List Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Temporary Rise ◽  
The Uk

GDP is expected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2016, slowing to just 1 per cent in 2017. GDP is likely to decline by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year and there is a risk of a further deterioration.Inflation is forecast to increase significantly, peaking at just over 3 per cent at the end of 2017. The Bank of England is expected to ‘look through’ this temporary rise and ease monetary policy substantially in the coming months.Government announcements have effectively ‘over-ridden’ the Fiscal Charter and borrowing is expected to increase by an additional £47 billion over the period 2016–17 to 2020–21.

The UK Economy

2016 ◽  
Vol 236 ◽  
pp. 49-49
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

The UK economy is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2016, down from the 2.3 per cent predicted in the February Review. Growth will pick up to 2.7 per cent in 2017.We expect the Bank of England to start raising interest rates in November. Rates will then continue rising throughout 2017, ending the year at 1.5 per cent.Although broadly unaffected in 2016, GDP is projected to be 1 per cent lower than our baseline forecast in 2017 if the UK votes to leave the European Union in next month's referendum. In the longer run, GDP is expected to be between 1.5 and 3.7 per cent lower than our baseline forecast.

The UK economy

1999 ◽  
Vol 169 ◽  
pp. 8-30
Author(s):  
Richard Kneller ◽  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Letter ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk ◽  
New Framework ◽  
Policy Committee

It is now just over two years since the new framework for monetary policy was announced and operational responsibility for the setting of interest rates was devolved to the independent Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England. A key component of the new arrangements is their accountability. One of the ways in which this is meant to be achieved is by the ‘open letter’ system, whereby the Governor is to write to the Chancellor whenever inflation is one percentage point higher or lower than the target. It is remarkable that no open letters have yet had to be written.

The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2016 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee

The economy will grow 2 per cent in 2016 before slowing to 1.4 per cent in 2017: with the triggering of Article 50 there are downside risks to next year's outlook.Consumer price inflation will accelerate, peaking at around 4 per cent in the second half of 2017, and this will impact on real disposable incomeThe Monetary Policy Committee is expected to look through this near-term inflation and hold Bank Rate at ¼ per cent until 2019.Sterling is expected to remain at around $1.22 and €1.11 this year and next.

The UK Economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 247 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Student Loans ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Public Deficit ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Eu

The UK's future relationship with the European Union (EU) remains undecided even though the Article 50 exit date is less than two months away. Brexit uncertainty has intensified since our last forecast and is now evident in various indicators.Our main forecast is conditional on a ‘soft’ Brexit scenario. Under this scenario, GDP growth stabilises at around 1.5 per cent this year before recovering to 1.7 per cent in 2020. CPI inflation eases to the target level of 2 per cent over this period.We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points in August. We also expect the Chancellor to spend more than the latest OBR forecast. That, together with the reclassification of student loans in public deficit data, will mean that the Chancellor is set to breach the fiscal mandate.There is a chance that the UK exits the EU without a deal at the end of March. Policymakers will have more room to inject stimulus if inflation expectations remain anchored.

scholarly journals The UK Economy: Forecast Summary

2018 ◽  
Vol 244 ◽  
pp. F2-F2
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Rate ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

We have revised lower our GDP forecast for 2018 to just under 1.5 per cent mainly due to weak performance in the first quarter. But the slowdown is likely to be temporary.The Commentary in this Review builds a case for higher government spending. We have, as a result, allowed for higher total managed expenditure resulting in a somewhat slower fiscal adjustment than presently planned.Following the exchange rate depreciation of June 2016, annual consumer price inflation peaked at 3.1 per cent in November 2017 and is forecast to ease back to the target rate of 2 per cent over the next eight quarters.Because of the dip in economic performance we expect the timing of our next increase in Bank Rate to be delayed to August but reiterate that the MPC should remain on a gentle path of monetary policy normalisation.

The UK Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
List Type ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk

The economy will grow by 2.4 per cent this year and 2.3 per cent in 2016.Unemployment rate to remain at 5¼ per cent throughout the rest of this year and next year.The rate of consumer price inflation rises from close to zero per cent in 2015 to 1.1 per cent in 2016.The Bank of England to raise interest rates at the start of 2016 and then gradually increase by 50 basis points a year, reaching 2 per cent by the end of 2018.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee: A View from a Parlimentary Specialist Advisor

2006 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 77-91
Author(s):  
Mike Wickens
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Select Committee ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Monetary Policy Committee ◽  
House Of Lords ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Policy Committee ◽  
The Way

This article assesses the new monetary policy regime introduced in the UK in 1997. It discusses the original remit given to the Bank of England, how it has been interpreted by the Bank and the conduct of monetary policy by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) subsequently. The article draws heavily on my experience as Specialist Adviser to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs over this whole period. I conclude that the MPC has been very successful in fulfilling its remit, but that a puzzle remains at the heart of the policy over whether the way inflation targeting has worked in practice is consistent with how it is said to work in theory.

The UK Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 233 ◽  
pp. F3-F3
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
List Type ◽  
Forecast Period ◽  
Bank Of England ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Future Path

Growth will be 2.5 per cent this year, and will remain close to this rate throughout the forecast period.The Bank of England will begin to raise rates in early 2016.The key domestic unknown for the UK economy over the next few years is the future path of productivity growth.

Forced migration and psychosocial health: meaning-making through autobiographical narratives in the UK

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Psoinos
Keyword(s):  
Social Context ◽  
Meaning Making ◽  
Forced Migration ◽  
Psychosocial Health ◽  
Autobiographical Narratives ◽  
Narrative Interviews ◽  
Negative Stereotypes ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Autobiographical Narrative

This paper explores how refugees in the UK perceive the relation between their experience of migration and their psychosocial health. Autobiographical narrative interviews were carried out with fifteen refugees residing in the UK. The findings reveal a contrast between the negative stereotypes concerning refugees’ psychosocial health and the participants’ own perceptions. Two of the three emerging narratives suggest a more balanced view of refugees’ psychosocial health, since- in contrast to the stereotypes- most participants did not perceive this through the lens of ‘vulnerability’. The third narrative revealed that a hostile social context can negatively shape refugees’ perceptions of their psychosocial health. This runs counter to the stereotype of refugees as being exclusively responsible for their ‘passiveness’ and therefore for the problems they face. 

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