scholarly journals The Effect of China’s Two-Child Policy on the Child Sex Ratio: Evidence From Shanghai, China

2022 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 004695802110679
Author(s):  
Di Tang ◽  
Xiangdong Gao ◽  
Jiaoli Cai ◽  
Peter. C. Coyte
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Pregnancy Status ◽  
The One ◽  
Male To Female ◽  
Municipal Level

Objective: The bias towards males at birth has resulted in a major imbalance in the Chinese sex ratio that is often attributed to China’s one-child policy. Relaxation of the one-child policy has the potential to reduce the imbalance in the sex ratio away from males. In this study, we assessed whether the bias towards males in the child sex ratio was reduced as a result of the two-child policy in China. Medical records data from one large municipal-level obstetrics hospital in Shanghai, East China. Design: Matching and difference-in-differences (MDID) techniques were used to investigate the effect of the two-child policy on the imbalance in the sex ratio at birth after matching for pregnancy status and socioeconomic factors. Results: Analyzing 133,358 live births suggest that the relaxation of the one-child policy had a small, but statistically significant effect in reducing the imbalance in the male to female sex ratio at birth. Conclusion: The results demonstrate that relaxation of the one-child policy reduced the imbalance in the male to female sex ratio at birth from 1.10 to 1.05 over the study period at one of the major obstetrics and gynecology hospitals in China.

Measurement of shock effect following change of one-child policy based on grey forecasting approach

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 559-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naiming Xie ◽  
Ruizhi Wang ◽  
Nanlei Chen
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
General Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Grey Verhulst Model ◽  
Verhulst Model ◽  
The One

Purpose This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development. Design/methodology/approach China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy. Findings Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously. Practical implications The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance. Originality/value The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.

China's Skewed Sex Ratio and the One-Child Policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 222 ◽  
pp. 295-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charis Loh ◽  
Elizabeth J. Remick
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
International Comparisons ◽  
Son Preference ◽  
Old Age Security ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Security Practices ◽  
Measurable Variable ◽  
The Media ◽  
The One

AbstractThe media and generalist scholarly work have created a conventional wisdom that China's one-child policy is the driver of the country's skewed sex ratio and so should be relaxed in order to ameliorate the imbalance. However, we show through historical, domestic and international comparisons that son preference, which we treat as an observable and measurable variable made up of labour, ritual, inheritance and old-age security practices and policies, is crucial to explaining the imbalanced sex ratio at birth. China's sex ratio cannot fully normalize without addressing son preference.

scholarly journals The effect of family size on education: new evidence from China's one-child policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 85 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura M. Argys ◽  
Susan L. Averett
Keyword(s):  
Family Size ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Chinese Migrants ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The One ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
New Evidence

AbstractEconomists theorize that the inverse relationship between income and family size reflects a trade-off between child quality and quantity. Testing this hypothesis requires addressing the simultaneity of the quality and quantity decisions. The unanticipated birth of twins and sex composition of the first two children have been used as the exogenous variation in family size with mixed results. We exploit the One-Child Policy (OCP) in China, which exogenously reduced fertility, and examine how the OCP affected the education of Chinese migrants to the USA. Using the American Community Survey and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find higher levels of education for Chinese migrants born after the OCP compared with their counterparts from other East Asian countries. This finding provides additional support for the existence of a quality-quantity trade-off.

scholarly journals Recent sex ratio at birth in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. e005438
Author(s):  
Quanbao Jiang ◽  
Cuiling Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sex Ratio ◽  
Normal Level ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
Sex Ratio At Birth ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Female Fetus ◽  
The Past ◽  
Multiple Data ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Second Births

BackgroundChina’s sex ratio at birth (SRB) has declined in the past decade but still exceeds the normal level. This study seeks to depict the SRB trend in the past two decades.MethodsWe depicted the SRB trend, including SRB by birth order, children composition, residence and hukou type, education, race and province using latest data available from multiple data sources and standardisation and decomposition methods.ResultsThe SRB remained around 120 in the first decade from 2000 to 2010, and recently declined and approached the normal level during 2010–2020. The SRB for second births and first births converged to the normal level, whereas the SRB for third and above births exceeded the normal level. The rising proportion of second births increased, whereas the decreasing proportion of first births reduced the overall SRB. Parents with only daughters are more likely to abort a female fetus in pursuit of a son, while parents with only sons are more likely to abort a male fetus in pursuit of a daughter. It also shows difference in SRB by residence, hukou type, educational attainment and race. Urban SRB was lower than rural SRB, by the residence and hukou type, but higher than rural SRB after being standardised. Provinces still exhibit differences by original categorised policy even after the implementation of the universal two-child policy.ConclusionsChina’s SRB has declined substantially during the past two decades, but the negative effects need to be tackled.

China's three-children policy will see limited success

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Social Control ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Content Type ◽  
One Child Policy ◽  
Limited Success ◽  
Child Policy ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
The One

Significance This year it increased the limit to three. The one-child policy has served more to exacerbate than to alleviate demographic problems, leaving China with an ageing population and shrinking workforce much sooner than other countries at this stage of economic development. Impacts Rising infertility will play a part in depressing birth rates. Vested interests and the government's proclivity for social control will prevent the wholesale abolition of family planning. National and local authorities will introduce policies to promote reproduction; not all of them will necessarily be socially liberal.

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