Differences in the Predictive Validity of Actuarial Risk Assessments in Relation to Sex Offender Type

2003 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 422-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darci L. Bartosh ◽  
Tina Garby ◽  
Deborah Lewis ◽  
Steve Gray
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Actuarial Risk

scholarly journals Use and perceived utility of structured violence risk assessments in English medium secure forensic units

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 129-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reena Khiroya ◽  
Tim Weaver ◽  
Tony Maden
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offender ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Risk Appraisal ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist ◽  
Perceived Utility ◽  
Dynamic Factors ◽  
Psychopathy Checklist Revised

Aims and MethodWe surveyed the usage and perceived utility of standardised risk measures in 29 forensic medium secure units (a 62% response rate).ResultsThe most common instruments were Historical Clinical Risk–20 (HCR–20) and Psychopathy Checklist – revised (PCL–R); both were rated highly for utility. the Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000), Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG) and Static-99 were the most common sex offender assessments, but the Sexual Violence Risks–20 (SVR–20) was rated more positively for its use of dynamic factors and relevance to treatment.Clinical ImplicationsMost medium secure units use structured risk assessments and staff view them positively. As HCR–20 and PCL–R/PCL–SV (Psychopathy Checklist – Screening Version) are so widely used they should be the first choices considered by other services.

Long-Term Predictive Validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II: Research and Practice Implications

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (5) ◽  
pp. 499-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca A. Schwartz-Mette ◽  
Sue Righthand ◽  
Jeffrey Hecker ◽  
Gregory Dore ◽  
Rachael Huff
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Treatment Needs ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Protocol ◽  
Sexual Offenses ◽  
Offender Assessment ◽  
Sexually Offended

The current study evaluated the predictive validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II) scores in a sample of juveniles who recidivated sexually or nonsexually as adults. Participants included 166 juveniles who had previously sexually offended and were followed into adulthood for an average of 10.75 years. Results of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses supported the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II Total Score, Scale 1, and Static Score in regard to adult sexual recidivism, and predictive validity was found for all J-SOAP-II scores (except Scale 1) in regard to adult nonsexual recidivism. Implications for future research on the assessment of risk factors and treatment needs for adolescents who commit sexual offenses are discussed.

Another Piece of the Puzzle

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 378-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda M. Fanniff ◽  
Elizabeth J. Letourneau
Keyword(s):  
Psychometric Properties ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Protocol ◽  
Sexual Drive ◽  
Treatment Data ◽  
Offender Assessment

The authors reviewed nine studies examining psychometric properties of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–II (J-SOAP-II) and examined the psychometric properties of the J-SOAP-II when items were scored based on probation records obtained at or near disposition and prior to treatment. Data from 73 boys ages 12 to 17 who participated in a larger randomized clinical trial informed this study. Reliability (internal consistency and interrater agreement) and validity (concurrent, discriminant, and predictive) were examined. Scale 1, Sexual Drive/Preoccupation, was characterized by adequate reliability and concurrent validity but did not predict scores on a measure of concerning sexual behavior. This is consistent with seven studies that failed to find evidence of predictive validity using measures of sexual recidivism. Also consistent with the literature, Scale 2, Impulsive/Antisocial Behavior, performed well with respect to nearly all psychometric properties including predictive validity. Review of remaining scales and scores and clinical policy implications are discussed.

Unjust Disparities? The Impact of Race on Juvenile Risk Assessment Outcomes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 423-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Black Youth ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Racial Biases ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Robust Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Research on risk assessments has illustrated many utilitarian purposes of these tools, including the robust prediction of recidivism and uniformity in correctional decision making. Recently, however, Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder vocalized his position that actuarial risk assessments could be unintentionally contributing to disproportionate minority contact in the correctional system. This study used data from approximately 2,600 juvenile delinquents assessed with the Ohio Youth Assessment System–Disposition Instrument to examine these claims across subsamples of White and Black youth. Bivariate and multivariate analyses indicated that the instrument predicted recidivism similarly across the two groups. There were slightly more prediction errors for Black youth than White youth; however, these differences may be the result of methodological factors rather than empirical realities. The article concluded with a discussion of the implications that potential racial biases have on risk assessment research and practice.

Sex Offender Treatment Outcome, Actuarial Risk, and the Aging Sex Offender in Canadian Corrections

Sexual Abuse ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 396-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark E. Olver ◽  
Terry P. Nicholaichuk ◽  
Deqiang Gu ◽  
Stephen C. P. Wong
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Outcome ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Offender Treatment ◽  
Sex Offender Treatment ◽  
Actuarial Risk

The Influence of Age and Sexual Drive on the Predictive Validity of the Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–Revised

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 150-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charity Wijetunga ◽  
Ricardo Martinez ◽  
Barry Rosenfeld ◽  
Keith Cruise
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Correctional Facility ◽  
Sexual Recidivism ◽  
Juvenile Sex Offender ◽  
Assessment Protocol ◽  
Sexual Drive ◽  
Mixed Support ◽  
Summary Scale ◽  
Offender Assessment

The Juvenile Sex Offender Assessment Protocol–Revised (J-SOAP-II) is the most commonly used measure in the assessment of recidivism risk among juveniles who have committed sexual offenses (JSOs), but mixed support exists for its predictive validity. This study compared the predictive validity of the J-SOAP-II across two offender characteristics, age and sexual drive, in a sample of 156 JSOs who had been discharged from a correctional facility or a residential treatment program. The J-SOAP-II appeared to be a better predictor of sexual recidivism for younger JSOs (14-16 years old) than for older ones (17-19 years old), with significant differences found for the Dynamic Summary Scale and Scale III (Intervention). In addition, several of the measure’s scales significantly predicted sexual recidivism for JSOs with a clear pattern of sexualized behavior but not for those without such a pattern, indicating that the J-SOAP-II may have greater clinical utility for JSOs with heightened sexual drive. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Similar Predictive Accuracy of the Static-99R Risk Tool for White, Black, and Hispanic Sex Offenders in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (9) ◽  
pp. 1125-1140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung C. Lee ◽  
R. Karl Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Sex Offenders ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Sex Offender ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Cultural Bias ◽  
Recidivism Rates ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Although considerable research has found overall moderate predictive validity of Static-99R, a sex offender risk prediction tool, relatively little research has addressed its potential for cultural bias. This prospective study evaluated the predictive validity of Static-99R across the three major ethnic groups (White, n = 789; Black, n = 466; Hispanic, n = 719) in the state of California. Static-99R was able to discriminate recidivists from nonrecidivists among White, Black, and Hispanic sex offenders (all area under the curve [AUC] values >.70; odds ratios >1.39). Base rates (at a Static-99R score of 2) with a fixed 5-year follow-up across ethnic groups were very similar (2.4%-3.0%) but were significantly lower than the norms (5.6%). The current findings support the use of Static-99R in risk assessment procedures for sex offenders of White, Black, and Hispanic heritage, but it should be used with caution in estimating absolute sexual recidivism rates, particularly for Hispanic sex offenders.

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