Unjust Disparities? The Impact of Race on Juvenile Risk Assessment Outcomes

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 423-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Black Youth ◽  
Attorney General ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Racial Biases ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Robust Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Research on risk assessments has illustrated many utilitarian purposes of these tools, including the robust prediction of recidivism and uniformity in correctional decision making. Recently, however, Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder vocalized his position that actuarial risk assessments could be unintentionally contributing to disproportionate minority contact in the correctional system. This study used data from approximately 2,600 juvenile delinquents assessed with the Ohio Youth Assessment System–Disposition Instrument to examine these claims across subsamples of White and Black youth. Bivariate and multivariate analyses indicated that the instrument predicted recidivism similarly across the two groups. There were slightly more prediction errors for Black youth than White youth; however, these differences may be the result of methodological factors rather than empirical realities. The article concluded with a discussion of the implications that potential racial biases have on risk assessment research and practice.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals The belief that politics drive scientific research & its impact on COVID-19 risk assessment

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0249937
Author(s):  
Danielle M. McLaughlin ◽  
Jack Mewhirter ◽  
Rebecca Sanders
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Scientific Research ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Preventative Health ◽  
The Impact

We use survey data collected from 12,037 US respondents to examine the extent to which the American public believes that political motives drive the manner in which scientific research is conducted and assess the impact that such beliefs have on COVID-19 risk assessments. We find that this is a commonly held belief and that it is negatively associated with risk assessments. Public distrust in scientists could complicate efforts to combat COVID-19, given that risk assessments are strongly associated with one’s propensity to adopt preventative health measures.

Hormesis - Implications for risk assessment caloric intake (body weight) as an exemplar

1998 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 454-459 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Turturro ◽  
Bruce Hass ◽  
Ronald W Hart
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Caloric Intake ◽  
Toxicity Testing ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Response Curves ◽  
Hormetic Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hormetic Response

Hormesis can be considered as a parameter which has a non-monotonic relationship with some endpoint. Since caloric intake is such a parameter, and the impact of this parameter on risk assessment has been fairly well characterized, it can provide clues as to how to integrate the information from a hormetic parameter into risk assessments for toxicants. Based on the work with caloric intake, one could: (a) define a biomarker for hormetic effect; (b) integrate specific information on when in the animals lifespan the parameter is active to influence parameters such as survival; (c) evaluate component effects of the overall hormetic response; and (d) address the consequences of a non-monotonic relationship between the hormetic parameter and endpoints critical for risk assessment. These impacts on risk assessments have been characterized for chronic tests, but are also true for short-term tests. A priority is the characterization of the dose-response curves for hormetic parameters. This quantification will be critical in utilizing them in risk assessment. With this information, one could better quantitatively address the changes one expects to result from the hormetic parameter, and limit the uncertainty and variability which occurs in toxicity testing.

FDA-iRISK—A Comparative Risk Assessment System for Evaluating and Ranking Food-Hazard Pairs: Case Studies on Microbial Hazards

2013 ◽  
Vol 76 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
YUHUAN CHEN ◽  
SHERRI B. DENNIS ◽  
EMMA HARTNETT ◽  
GREG PAOLI ◽  
RÉGIS POUILLOT ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Impact

Stakeholders in the system of food safety, in particular federal agencies, need evidence-based, transparent, and rigorous approaches to estimate and compare the risk of foodborne illness from microbial and chemical hazards and the public health impact of interventions. FDA-iRISK (referred to here as iRISK), a Web-based quantitative risk assessment system, was developed to meet this need. The modeling tool enables users to assess, compare, and rank the risks posed by multiple food-hazard pairs at all stages of the food supply system, from primary production, through manufacturing and processing, to retail distribution and, ultimately, to the consumer. Using standard data entry templates, built-in mathematical functions, and Monte Carlo simulation techniques, iRISK integrates data and assumptions from seven components: the food, the hazard, the population of consumers, process models describing the introduction and fate of the hazard up to the point of consumption, consumption patterns, dose-response curves, and health effects. Beyond risk ranking, iRISK enables users to estimate and compare the impact of interventions and control measures on public health risk. iRISK provides estimates of the impact of proposed interventions in various ways, including changes in the mean risk of illness and burden of disease metrics, such as losses in disability-adjusted life years. Case studies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella were developed to demonstrate the application of iRISK for the estimation of risks and the impact of interventions for microbial hazards. iRISK was made available to the public at http://irisk.foodrisk.org in October 2012.

Professional Discretion and the Predictive Validity of a Juvenile Risk Assessment Instrument

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
James T. McCafferty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Validity ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Assessment Instrument ◽  
Adjusted Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Assessment Instrument ◽  
Actuarial Risk ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

The ability for professionals to override the results of an actuarial risk assessment tool is an essential part of effective correctional risk classification; however, little is known about how this important function affects the predictive validity of these tools. Using data from a statewide sample of juveniles from Ohio, this study examined the impact of professional adjustments on the predictive validity of a juvenile risk assessment instrument. This study found that the original and adjusted risk levels were significant predictors of recidivism, but the original risk levels were stronger predictors of recidivism than the adjusted risk levels that accounted for overrides.

scholarly journals TOOLS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT (TERA) - RUSSIAN INFORMATION-FORECASTING SYSTEMS, EXPERIENCE OF APPLICATION FOR HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 96 (11) ◽  
pp. 1088-1090
Author(s):  
Sergey M. Novikov ◽  
M. V. Fokin ◽  
T. A. Shashina ◽  
N. S. Dodina
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Health Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk Assessment ◽  
Chemical Compounds ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Environmental Objects ◽  
The Impact

There is presented a unique Russian computer information and predictive TERA (Tools for Environmental Risk Assessment) system aimed to carry on studies of the assessment of health risk related to the impact of chemical compounds that pollute the various environmental objects. There are considered main calculation modules of specialized databases, as well as the main identification table - TERAbase, allowing to observe all the methodological requirements and recommendations provided by the sanitary legislation, for doing so and for the examination of scientific and practical work on risk assessment to public health, accreditation and certification for risk assessment bodies. There is indicated the direction of solving the problem of information support for risk assessment work for health.

scholarly journals JUSTIFICATION OF RISK-ORIENTED ASSESSMENT SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC AIR POLLUTION ON POPULATION HEALTH BASED ON ASSESSMENT OF BENZENE LEVEL IN KAMIANSKE

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (16) ◽  
pp. 70-76
Author(s):  
S.V. Stepanov ◽  
N.I. Rublevskaya ◽  
M.Y. Zub
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Carcinogenic Risk ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Concentration Limit ◽  
Atmospheric Air ◽  
Assessment Techniques ◽  
Public Health Hazards ◽  
The Impact

Air pollution in industrial cities is one of the sources of the formation of non-infectious diseases of the population. Timely identification and application of preventive measures makes it possible to control and reduce the incidence rate of the population of technogenically loaded settlements. Purpose of the study. on the basis of a hygienic assessment of the concentration of benzene in the atmospheric air of Kamianske, substantiate the need for a risk-oriented approach to assessing the impact of the environment on the health of the population. Materials and research methods. Based on the monitoring studies carried out for the period 2016-2020. carried out a hygienic assessment of the quality of atmospheric benzene content in. Kamenskoe. The calculation and assessment of carcinogenic risks and analysis of the current regulatory levels in Ukraine have been carried out. Results. According to the results of the research, the tendency to increase the content of benzene in the atmospheric air of Kamianske was revealed. In 2020, the MPC was exceeded. Carcinogenic risk (CR) in Kamianske is unacceptable and requires the development of measures to reduce or eliminate the risk. The population carcinogenic risk (PCR) for city residents is 906 additional cancer cases. The analysis of the obtained results showed that the analysis of air pollution in comparison with the maximum concentration limit, which for benzene is 1.5 mg / m3 for maximum single concentrations and 0.1 mg / m3 for average daily concentrations, does not allow to identify public health hazards in time. and develop the necessary set of preventive measures, in contrast to the risk assessment system. Conclusions. The tendency to increase the concentrations of benzene in the air in Kamyanske has been established. It is proved that the calculated carcinogenic risk is unacceptable for the population of an industrial city. The necessity of calculation and risk assessment for timely identification, risk assessment and development of preventive measures is substantiated. The use of risk assessment techniques allows to identify potentially dangerous effects for the population affected by the actual concentrations of benzene within the MPC.

Fuzzy hierarchy analytic method of enterprise supply chain financial risk

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Huali Deng ◽  
Aoduo Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Supply chain finance refers to one or more companies upstream and downstream of the industrial supply chain. According to the core company of each node, based on actual transactions, use customized and standardized financing transaction methods to control capital flows or control assets. The right to provide comprehensive financial products and services between supply chain nodes. This article only needs to introduce the financial risk analysis of the enterprise supply chain based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. This paper proposes a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods to assess financial risks, and designs a financial risk assessment system by constructing a fuzzy judgment matrix. It also proposes a comprehensive judgment of the financial risk assessment method. The impact of various risk factors on financial services provides a basis for risk prevention. The experimental results of this paper show that the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process evaluation method is relatively objective and can effectively evaluate the financial risks of the enterprise supply chain. From the weight analysis, it can be concluded that the technical risk weight value is 0.47, which accounts for the largest proportion and is the most important risk.

scholarly journals Improving risk assessments for CAMHS admissions at Great Ormond Street Hospital

BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (S1) ◽  
pp. S107-S107
Author(s):  
Lisanne Stock ◽  
Sacha Evans
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Junior Doctors ◽  
List Type ◽  
Street Hospital ◽  
Great Ormond Street Hospital ◽  
Early Risk ◽  
Audit Cycle ◽  
Working Day ◽  
The Impact

AimsDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, admissions to the Mildred Creek Unit (MCU), an Inpatient CAMHS Ward at Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) changed.The MCU is a 7–10 bed unit for children aged 7–15 years based on therapeutic milieu principles. The ward accepts patients via a planned national referral pathway, however, during the COVID-19 pandemic, patients were admitted as emergencies and consequently risk assessments were missed. Risk assessment is important in all admissions and as the MCU is not a locked unit, early risk assessment is particularly important.We aimed to review whether risk assessment occurred within one working day of admission, as suggested by the ward risk assessment policy, and if this was not the case, our aim was to ensure that all risk assessments took place within this period via our audit interventions.MethodWe collated data looking at the time between admission to GOSH and the date at which first risk assessments took place. We then put in place three interventions. 1)Posters prompting doctors who were providing on-call liaison input to perform a risk assessment within one working day of admission.2)New junior doctors were provided with written and verbal information to emphasise the importance of early risk assessment.3)Guidelines also highlight that assessment of risk may need to be on-going. We therefore added a prompt section in the weekly ward round proforma with the aim of reducing the interval between risk assessments during admission.The first audit cycle was conducted on the 3/8/2020 and the second on the 28/11/21 to allow for a comparative number of inpatients between the first and second audit cycle.ResultWe found these interventions significantly reduced delays in risk assessments. Prior to the audit's first cycle the average delay between admission to GOSH/MCU and a risk assessment was 2 weeks. After the interventions there were no patients whose risk assessment was delayed outside the next working day parameters.ConclusionThis full cycle audit demonstrates the impact that prompts to clinical practice can make on patient care. It is important to recognise the need for flexible risk assessment with regular review, especially at times of clinical change. We hope that this continued trend for early risk assessment leads to improved clinical care and timely discussion of risk for all new CAMHS inpatients at GOSH.

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