Investigating the role of Non-Technical Skills in Railway Traffic Operations through Expert Knowledge Elicitation

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 262-266
Author(s):  
Iga Jarosz* ◽  
Julia Lo ◽  
Jan Lijs
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Control ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Skill Training ◽  
Technical Skills ◽  
Knowledge Elicitation ◽  
Protective Function ◽  
Nontechnical Skills ◽  
Railway Traffic ◽  
The One ◽  
Expert Classification

Many high-risk industries identify non-technical skills as safety-critical abilities of the operational staff that have a protective function against human fallibility. Based on an established non-technical skills classification system, methods for expert knowledge elicitation were used to describe non-technical skills in the specific context of train traffic control in the Netherlands. The findings offer insights regarding the skill importance for good operational outcomes, skill difficulty, categorization, and attitudes based on subject matter experts’ opinions. Substantial overlap between the employed non-technical skills framework and the observed expert classification was found, which might indicate that the experts utilize a mental model of nontechnical skills similar to the one used. Furthermore, considerations concerning the organizational culture and the attitudes towards change provide a promising outlook when introducing novel solutions to non-technical skill training and assessment.

A new approach to bracket prediction in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament based on a dual-proportion likelihood

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajay Andrew Gupta
Keyword(s):  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Expected Value ◽  
Division I ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Men's Basketball ◽  
Popular Interest ◽  
The One

AbstractThe widespread proliferation of and interest in bracket pools that accompany the National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament have created a need to produce a set of predicted winners for each tournament game by people without expert knowledge of college basketball. Previous research has addressed bracket prediction to some degree, but not nearly on the level of the popular interest in the topic. This paper reviews relevant previous research, and then introduces a rating system for teams using game data from that season prior to the tournament. The ratings from this system are used within a novel, four-predictor probability model to produce sets of bracket predictions for each tournament from 2009 to 2014. This dual-proportion probability model is built around the constraint of two teams with a combined 100% probability of winning a given game. This paper also performs Monte Carlo simulation to investigate whether modifications are necessary from an expected value-based prediction system such as the one introduced in the paper, in order to have the maximum bracket score within a defined group. The findings are that selecting one high-probability “upset” team for one to three late rounds games is likely to outperform other strategies, including one with no modifications to the expected value, as long as the upset choice overlaps a large minority of competing brackets while leaving the bracket some distinguishing characteristics in late rounds.

scholarly journals An FDA-Based Approach for Clustering Elicited Expert Knowledge

Stats ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 184-204
Author(s):  
Carlos Barrera-Causil ◽  
Juan Carlos Correa ◽  
Andrew Zamecnik ◽  
Francisco Torres-Avilés ◽  
Fernando Marmolejo-Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Functional Data ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Knowledge Elicitation ◽  
Parallel Analysis ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Dimensional Problem ◽  
Prior Distributions ◽  
Infinite Dimensional ◽  
Finite Dimensional

Expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) aims at obtaining individual representations of experts’ beliefs and render them in the form of probability distributions or functions. In many cases the elicited distributions differ and the challenge in Bayesian inference is then to find ways to reconcile discrepant elicited prior distributions. This paper proposes the parallel analysis of clusters of prior distributions through a hierarchical method for clustering distributions and that can be readily extended to functional data. The proposed method consists of (i) transforming the infinite-dimensional problem into a finite-dimensional one, (ii) using the Hellinger distance to compute the distances between curves and thus (iii) obtaining a hierarchical clustering structure. In a simulation study the proposed method was compared to k-means and agglomerative nesting algorithms and the results showed that the proposed method outperformed those algorithms. Finally, the proposed method is illustrated through an EKE experiment and other functional data sets.

An empirical investigation into intelligent cost analysis in purchasing

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Bodendorf ◽  
Manuel Lutz ◽  
Stefan Michelberger ◽  
Joerg Franke
Keyword(s):  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Cost Calculation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Intelligent Decision Support Systems ◽  
The One ◽  
Management Recommendations ◽  
Intelligent Decision Support

Purpose Cost transparency is of central importance to reach a consensus between supply chain partners. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the instrument of cost analysis which supports the link between buyers and suppliers. Design/methodology/approach Based on a detailed literature review in the area of cost analysis and purchasing, intelligent decision support systems for cost estimation are identified. Subsequently, expert interviews are conducted to determine the application possibilities for managers. The application potential is derived from the synthesis of motivation, identified applications and challenges in the industry. Management recommendations are to be derived by bringing together scientific and practical approaches in the industry. Findings On the one hand, the results of this study show that machine learning (ML) is a complex technology that poses many challenges for cost and purchasing managers. On the other hand, ML methods, especially in combination with expert knowledge and other analytical methods, offer immense added value for cost analysis in purchasing. Originality/value Digital transformation allows to facilitate the cost calculation process in purchasing decisions. In this context, the application of ML approaches has gained increased attention. While such approaches can lead to high cost reductions on the side of both suppliers and buyers, an intelligent cost analysis is very demanding.

Pfannenstiel und Quante, Effect of neosalvarsan and germanine on bactericidal activity in rabbit blood. A message to the question of the indirect action of these chemotherapeutic agents. Ztschr. f. Immunitätsf., Bd 88, H 1/2 1936)

1937 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 634-634
Keyword(s):  
Bactericidal Activity ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Chemotherapeutic Agents ◽  
The Other ◽  
Medicinal Substance ◽  
Protective Function ◽  
Decay Products ◽  
Chemotherapeutic Effect ◽  
The One ◽  
Indirect Action

The authors believe that the decisive role in the chemotherapeutic effect belongs to the organotropy, and not the parasitotropy of the medicinal substance. However, it cannot be denied that the parasite's cell is able to capture the chemotherapeutic substance or its decay products. Therefore, the chemotherapeutic index is an expression, on the one hand, of the weakening of the parasite, and on the other hand, of the strengthening of the protective function of the organism.

scholarly journals THE PRIORITY OF INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT EXPRESSES IN THE OVERLAPPING SECTION OF RFC 7 AND RFC 9 KOLÍN - CESKA TREBOVA

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Přemysl Šrámek ◽  
Tatiana Molková
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Control ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
Railway Traffic

This article deals with the railway traffic control and railway traffic equipment in terms of implementation of TSI. The main goal is to research the optimal priority of international freight expresses, especially in the overlapping sections, which represent critical line sections of European freight corridors. This article shows this problem in the context in the overlapping section of RFC 7 and RFC 9 Kolín – Ceská Trebová. There are mentioned possibilities of using of ETCS and implementation of automatic train paths.

Functional tests of the ETCS and rail traffic control systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 15-26
Author(s):  
Paweł Drózd ◽  
Adam Rosiński
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Control ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Field Tests ◽  
Base Layer ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Railway Traffic ◽  
Control Devices ◽  
Traffic Control Devices ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

The paper presents the issues of railway traffic control devices testing and focuses on European Train Control System (ETCS) devices widely implemented in railways. The functions of the ETCS system, principles of operation are described. The basic telegrams transmitted in the track-to-train relation are listed. The process of designing and verifying the implemented data and what parameters are checked at the stage of field tests using the locomotive is briefly described. The functional model of the SRK devices, including ETCS elements, was presented, and the close relationship between the base layer of the railway traffic control devices and the ETCS was shown. Equipment testing reduces the availability of the rail network, engages staff, and generates costs. A test generation method is presented to minimize the impact. Two indicators are proposed for reducing the set of checks, the cost of checking and the information effectiveness. The cost of checking due to the problematic estimate is generalized, divided into three groups taking into account the difficulty and resource consumption of bringing the devices to the initial state and their operation according to the test. Therefore, the obtained set of checks is suboptimal and ensures complete coverage of the functions with tests, which is essential when testing devices. The tests are carried out using available setting commands and the implementation of tasks - entry and exit routes at the station. The proposed method is universal and can be applied to any railway traffic control device, regardless of the manufacturing technology. It is a non-invasive method in the structure of the tested devices and does not require additional hardware resources.

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