Risk in Public Sector Project Appraisal: It Mostly Does Not Matter!

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. Moore ◽  
Anthony E. Boardman ◽  
Aidan R. Vining
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Public Project ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Project Appraisal ◽  
Expected Values ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Special Circumstances

Public project appraisal using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) requires analysts to project risky net benefits and to convert these into present values using a social discount rate (SDR). We consider which types of risk matter for CBA. For small projects with only idiosyncratic risks, expected net benefits should be discounted at a risk-free SDR. If projects are large or expected net benefits are correlated with aggregate consumption, the alternatives are to replace expected net benefits with their certainty equivalents (CEs) and to discount these at a risk-free SDR, or to discount expected net benefits using a higher SDR that includes a risk premium. These methods are equivalent under special circumstances that are unlikely; the first approach is the correct one. We examine when replacing expected values with CEs will matter, and how this might be done. For most projects, analysts should discount expected values of net benefits at a risk-free SDR.

Quaranta anni di valutazione delle politiche e degli investimenti pubblici: lezioni dall'esperienza

2009 ◽  
pp. 57-75
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Pennisi
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Review Article ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Project Appraisal ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Italian Government ◽  
Evaluation Techniques

- This is a review article based on 40 years of experience in the field of policy and project appraisal and evaluation. The author has had an extensive career in this area in the World Bank, the European Commission, Italian Government Ministries and in academia. The review concludes that cost benefit analysis extended to "real options" and applied jointly with the "effects method" helps solve certain critical issue of traditional financial and economic appraisal and evaluation techniques. More significantly, it contributes to better integrate financial and economic evaluation and appraisal techniques with organizational and sociological evaluation techniques. Key words: appraisal, evaluation, World Bank, distribution weights.

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Wetland Drainage

1983 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
J K Bowers
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Agricultural Improvement ◽  
Wetland Drainage ◽  
Project Appraisal ◽  
Land Drainage ◽  
Imminent Threat ◽  
Agricultural Yields ◽  
Second Use

The wetland areas of England are under imminent threat of drainage for agricultural improvement. The immediate cause is the local drainage surveys produced under the Water Act 1973. Problems identified in these surveys are subjected to cost-benefit appraisal. Examination of a selection shows that these appraisals are technically defective and result in an overstatement of the benefits and in an overinvestment in land drainage. The main defects are: first, a failure to assess amenity and conservation losses; second, use of prices that contain a substantial element of income transfer which is not netted out; third, a failure to properly calculate the rate of land conversion—a crucial variable; fourth, the project appraisal period is arbitrarily chosen or treated as a variable; fifth, the use of theoretical rather than expected agricultural yields; sixth, the level of flood protection aimed at is too high for the stated objective; and, last, anticipated flood losses are not deducted.

scholarly journals "Shadow Prices for Pakistan: An Assessment of Alternative Estimates" - A Reply

1980 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-77
Author(s):  
John Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Shadow Prices ◽  
Social Analysis ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Weighting System ◽  
Project Appraisal ◽  
Shadow Pricing ◽  
General Thrust

Ms. Tsakok (I) has done a useful job in summarising and commenting on the various estimates of shadow prices which appeared in the symposium on shadow pricing in Pakistan, published in the Summer 1979 issue of this Review. However, her discussion of my paper in the symposium (3) 1 is misleading regarding a number of points of detail, and, more seriously, obscures the general thrust of the argument. Considering the detailed points first, Ms. Tsakok is concerned with a comparison of the values of the key shadow prices given in the different studies as well as with the explanations for the variations between the different estimates. However, JW discusses not the estimation of a set of shadow prices for Pakistan, but the broader question of the implications of the use of an income-weighting system, described conventionally as 'social' analysis, in project appraisal. The shadow prices attributed to my work in Table I of Ms. Tsakok's paper (II are not in fact contained in JW. but are taken from an earlier mimeographed paper written in 1977. These shadow prices are preliminary estimates, which are not used in my more detailed study on cost benefit analysis in Pakistan [2]. Furthermore, It is strange to find these estimates cited, since they conflict with the analysis of JW, which is the paper under review.

scholarly journals A Non-Market Valuation Approach to Environmental Cost-Benefit Analysis for Sanitary Landfill Project Appraisal

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7718
Author(s):  
Nik Nor Rahimah Nik Ab Rahim ◽  
Jamal Othman ◽  
Norlida Hanim Mohd Salleh ◽  
Norshamliza Chamhuri
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Environmental Values ◽  
Market Valuation ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
Sanitary Landfill ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Project Appraisal ◽  
Implicit Prices ◽  
Non Market Valuation

Extensive non-engineered landfilling practice in developing countries has raised environmental concerns, but operating a sanitary landfill appears infeasible due to financial incapability. This study aims to determine the feasibility of a sanitary landfill project by including its environmental values into the project appraisal while simultaneously applying three policy-relevant methods—non-market valuation, benefits transfer, and cost-benefit analysis—in two study areas in Peninsular Malaysia. The non-market valuation study used choice modeling, a questionnaire-based technique, to elicit willingness to pay among 624 households toward the environmental attributes of the sanitary landfill. Their responses resulted in the monetary values of the environmental attributes by referring to implicit prices of leachate discharge, bad odor, disease vector and view. The implicit prices of bad odor (RM2.29 per month) and view (RM3.59 per month) in the two study areas were transferable and used as a proxy of additional solid waste disposal payment in environmental cost-benefit analysis. Positive net present value offers empirical evidence of the feasibility of the sanitary landfill project. The findings show that the inclusion of environmental values in project appraisals increases the chances of implementing sanitary landfills, providing a new approach to address the environmental concerns in developing countries. Future research should consider the external costs along with the external benefits to allow for a comprehensive comparison between environmental values in environmental cost-benefit analysis.

scholarly journals Estimating Shadow Wage Rates for Economic Project Appraisal

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 253-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iraj Saleh
Keyword(s):  
Wage Rate ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Scarce Resources ◽  
Project Appraisal ◽  
Wage Rates ◽  
Market Wage ◽  
The Difference

One of the central concerns in cost benefit analysis is the adjustment of distortions in markets to provide a better guide to a more effective allocation of scarce resources. The objectives of this paper are to develop a model for the estimation of the shadow wage rate (SWR) for groups of occupations and to estimate the SWRs for the major groups of occupations in Australia. The main findings of the analysis indicate that estimated SWRs for major groups of occupations are different from the corresponding market wage rates, and that estimated SWRs of the groups are different. The results of the study demonstrate the importance of estimation of the SWR as a part of the appraisal process of investment projects. The ratio analysis indicates the significance of the difference between SWR and market wage rate, which is recommended to be adjusted is economic analysis of projects.

scholarly journals Cost-Benefit Analysis of a Children's Spectacle Reimbursement Scheme: Evidence for Including Children's Spectacles in Mongolia's Social Health Insurance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ai Chee Yong ◽  
Chimgee Chuluunkhuu ◽  
Ving Fai Chan ◽  
Tai Stephan ◽  
Nathan Congdon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Insurance ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Social Health Insurance ◽  
Vision Impairment ◽  
Social Health ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
Reimbursement Scheme ◽  
Net Benefits

Background and aim: Globally, 12.8 million children have vision impairment due to uncorrected refractive error (URE). In Mongolia, one in five children needs but do not have access to spectacles. This cost-benefit analysis aims to estimate the net benefits of a children's spectacles reimbursement scheme in Mongolia. Methods: A willingness-to-pay (WTP) survey using the contingent valuation method was administered to rural and urban Mongolia respondents. The survey assessed WTP in additional annual taxes for any child with refractive error to be provided government-subsidised spectacles. Net benefits were then calculated based on mean WTP (i.e. benefit) and cost of spectacles. Results: The survey recruited 50 respondents (mean age 40.2 +/- 9.86 years; 78.0% women; 100% response rate) from rural and urban Mongolia. Mean WTP was US$24.00 +/- 5.15 (95% CI US$22.55 to 25.35). The average cost of a pair of spectacles in Mongolia is US$15.00. Subtracting the average cost of spectacles from mean WTP yielded a mean positive net benefit of US$9.00. Conclusion: A spectacle reimbursement scheme is a potentially cost-effective intervention to address childhood vision impairment due to URE in Mongolia. These preliminary findings support the inclusion of children's spectacles into existing Social Health Insurance. A much larger random sample could be employed in future research to increase the precision and generalisability of findings.

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