scholarly journals Biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of land-use change simulated by MIROC-ES2L

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
Tomohiro Hajima
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Carbon Stock ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Model Complexity ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Land Use Impacts ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks

Abstract Land-use change is one of the focal processes in Earth system models because it has strong impacts on terrestrial biogeophysical and biogeochemical conditions. However, modeling land-use impacts is still challenging because of model complexity and uncertainty. This study examined the results of simulations of land-use change impacts by the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System version 2 for long-term simulations (MIROC-ES2L) conducted under the Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project protocol. In a historical experiment, the model reproduced biogeophysical impacts such as decreasing trends in land-surface net radiation and evapotranspiration by about 1970. Among biogeochemical impacts, the model captured the global decrease of vegetation and soil carbon stocks caused by extensive deforestation. By releasing ecosystem carbon stock to the atmosphere, land-use change shortened the mean residence time of terrestrial carbon and accelerated its turnover rate, especially in low latitudes. Future projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways indicated substantial alteration of land conditions caused primarily by climatic change and secondarily by land-use change. Sensitivity experiments conducted by exchanging land-use data between different future projection baseline experiments showed that, at the global scale, the anticipated extent of land-use conversion would likely play a modest role in the future terrestrial radiation, water, and carbon budgets. Regional investigations revealed that future land use would exert a considerable influence on runoff and vegetation carbon stock. Further model refinement is required to improve its capability to analyze its complicated terrestrial linkages or nexus (e.g., food, bioenergy, and carbon sequestration) to climate-change impacts.

scholarly journals MIROC-INTEG-LAND version 1: a global biogeochemical land surface model with human water management, crop growth, and land-use change

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 4713-4747
Author(s):  
Tokuta Yokohata ◽  
Tsuguki Kinoshita ◽  
Gen Sakurai ◽  
Yadu Pokhrel ◽  
Akihiko Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Earth System

Abstract. Future changes in the climate system could have significant impacts on the natural environment and human activities, which in turn affect changes in the climate system. In the interaction between natural and human systems under climate change conditions, land use is one of the elements that play an essential role. On the one hand, future climate change will affect the availability of water and food, which may impact land-use change. On the other hand, human-induced land-use change can affect the climate system through biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. To investigate these interrelationships, we developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND (MIROC INTEGrated LAND surface model version 1), an integrated model that combines the land surface component of global climate model MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) with water resources, crop production, land ecosystem, and land-use models. The most significant feature of MIROC-INTEG-LAND is that the land surface model that describes the processes of the energy and water balance, human water management, and crop growth incorporates a land use decision-making model based on economic activities. In MIROC-INTEG-LAND, spatially detailed information regarding water resources and crop yields is reflected in the prediction of future land-use change, which cannot be considered in the conventional integrated assessment models. In this paper, we introduce the details and interconnections of the submodels of MIROC-INTEG-LAND, compare historical simulations with observations, and identify various interactions between the submodels. By evaluating the historical simulation, we have confirmed that the model reproduces the observed states well. The future simulations indicate that changes in climate have significant impacts on crop yields, land use, and irrigation water demand. The newly developed MIROC-INTEG-LAND could be combined with atmospheric and ocean models to develop an integrated earth system model to simulate the interactions among coupled natural–human earth system components.

Improving the representation of soil and vegetation carbon stocks at the sub-national scale in a global land data system.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kanishka Narayan ◽  
Chris Vernon ◽  
Alan Di Vittorio
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Carbon Stock ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Systems ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks ◽  
Vegetation Carbon

<p>Accurately representing historical soil and vegetation carbon stocks in land data systems is important when evaluating outcomes of land use change decisions (e.g. land use change emissions). Moreover, carbon stocks (especially soil carbon stocks) are subject to uncertainty and vary significantly based on assumptions used by different data sets. For this reason, when representing carbon stocks in data systems, it is important to present a range of values based on the distribution of carbon stock observations for a given unit (region/country/basin) at the grid cell level.</p><p>We updated the moirai land data system (LDS) to generate historical estimates of soil carbon stocks (at a depth of 0-30 cms) and vegetation carbon stocks (broken down into above ground and below ground biomass) at the sub-national (basin) level based on global fine resolution raster input data. The LDS has also been programmed to calculate soil carbon stock values based on multiple data sets (such as SoilGrids database maintained by the ISRIC and the harmonized world soil database maintained by the FAO) to enable efficient comparisons of carbon stock estimates by end users between data sets. Moreover, to account for uncertainty, carbon stocks are calculated for 6 “states” based on 5 arcmin grid cell level observations of carbon stocks (The states are -weighted average, median, minimum, maximum, quartile 1 and quartile 3).  This provides a robust representation of soil and vegetation carbon stocks at the sub-national level which are differentiated by data sources and the above-mentioned states, which can be used to represent more realistic outcomes from land use change decisions. To demonstrate the utility of this data, we also implemented the same in the land module of a multi sector dynamics model, Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to observe the impacts on land use change decision outcomes with different initializations of carbon stock data.   </p>

Agriculture in the Boreal Forest: Understanding the Impact of Land Use Change on Soil Carbon for Developing Sustainable Community Food Systems 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bysouth ◽  
Merritt Turetsky ◽  
Andrew Spring
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks ◽  
Carbon Losses

<p>Climate change is causing rapid warming at northern high latitudes and disproportionately affecting ecosystem services that northern communities rely upon. In Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT), climate change is impacting the access and availability of traditional foods that are critical for community health and well-being. With climate change potentially expanding the envelope of suitable agricultural land northward, many communities in the NWT are evaluating including agriculture in their food systems. However, the conversion of boreal forest to agriculture may degrade the carbon rich soils that characterize the region, resulting in large carbon losses to the atmosphere and the depletion of existing ecosystem services associated with the accumulation of soil organic matter. Here, we first summarize the results of 35 publications that address land use change from boreal forest to agriculture, with the goal of understanding the magnitude and drivers of carbon stock changes with time-since-land use change. Results from the literature synthesis show that conversion of boreal forest to agriculture can result in up to ~57% of existing soil carbon stocks being lost 30 years after land use change occurs. In addition, a three-way interaction with soil carbon, pH and time-since-land use change is observed where soils become more basic with increasing time-since-land use change, coinciding with declines in soil carbon stocks. This relationship is important when looking at the types of crops communities are interested in growing and the type of agriculture associated with cultivating these crops. Partnered communities have identified crops such as berry bushes, root vegetables, potatoes and corn as crops they are interested in growing. As berry bushes grow in acidic conditions and the other mentioned crops grow in more neutral conditions, site selection and management practices associated with growing these crops in appropriate pH environments will be important for managing soil carbon in new agricultural systems in the NWT. Secondly, we also present community scale soil data assessing variation in soil carbon stocks in relation to potential soil fertility metrics targeted to community identified crops of interest for two communities in the NWT.  We collected 192 soil cores from two communities to determine carbon stocks along gradients of potential agriculture suitability. Our field soil carbon measurements in collaboration with the partnered NWT communities show that land use conversions associated with agricultural development could translate to carbon losses ranging from 2.7-11.4 kg C/m<sup>2</sup> depending on the type of soil, agricultural suitability class, and type of land use change associated with cultivation. These results highlight the importance of managing soil carbon in northern agricultural systems and can be used to emphasize the need for new community scale data relating to agricultural land use change in boreal soils. Through the collection of this data, we hope to provide northern communities with a more robust, community scale product that will allow them to make informed land use decisions relating to the cultivation of crops and the minimization of soil carbon losses while maintaining the culturally important traditional food system.</p>

scholarly journals Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

2014 ◽  
Vol 291 ◽  
pp. 152-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prasanth Meiyappan ◽  
Michael Dalton ◽  
Brian C. O’Neill ◽  
Atul K. Jain
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Modeling ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Agricultural Land Use

scholarly journals Long-term impact of chronosequential land use change on soil carbon stocks on a Swedish farm

2007 ◽  
Vol 81 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Kätterer ◽  
Liselotte Andersson ◽  
Olof Andrén ◽  
Jan Persson
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks ◽  
Long Term Impact

Changes in soil carbon stocks after land-use change from native vegetation to pastures in the Atlantic forest region of Brazil

Geoderma ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 337 ◽  
pp. 394-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camila A. dos Santos ◽  
Claudia de P. Rezende ◽  
Érika F. Machado Pinheiro ◽  
José M. Pereira ◽  
Bruno J.R. Alves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Atlantic Forest ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Native Vegetation ◽  
Forest Region ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks

scholarly journals Effects of Urbanization on Watershed Evapotranspiration and Its Components in Southern China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 645 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingzhou Zheng ◽  
Lu Hao ◽  
Xiaolin Huang ◽  
Lei Sun ◽  
Ge Sun
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Water Evaporation ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

Understanding the effects of land use change on evapotranspiration (ET) and its partitioning to transpiration and evaporation is important for accurately evaluating the likely environmental impacts on watershed water supply, climate moderation, and other ecosystem services (e.g., carbon sequestration and biodiversity). This study used a distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to partition evapotranspiration into soil evaporation, transpiration, ponded water evaporation, and interception, and examined how the ET partitions affected the water balance in the Qinhuai River Basin from 2000 to 2013. Simulated daily ET was compared to measurements at an eddy flux research site during 2016–2017 (R2 = 0.72). Degradation in rice-wheat rotation fields and expansion of impervious surfaces impacted not only total watershed evapotranspiration, which showed a significant downward trend (p < 0.05), but also its partitioning. A significant (p < 0.01) decrease in transpiration was detected. Ponded water evaporation was the only ET partition that exhibited a significant positive trend (p < 0.05). We concluded that the reduced transpiration as a result of land use and land cover change was the primary factor driving the variation of watershed scale evapotranspiration. In addition, there was an increase in annual water yield (23%) as a response to significant reduction in ET (7%) due to a 175% expansion of urban area in the study watershed. Our study provided insights to the mechanisms of land surface–water cycle interaction and better understanding of the effects of land use change on urban micro-climate such as “urban dry island” and “urban heat island” effects.

scholarly journals Representation of fire, land-use change and vegetation dynamics in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn4.9 (JULES)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chantelle Burton ◽  
Richard Betts ◽  
Manoel Cardoso ◽  
Ted R. Feldpausch ◽  
Anna Harper ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Vegetation Cover ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Fire Disturbance ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Disturbance of vegetation is a critical component of land cover, but is generally poorly constrained in land surface and carbon cycle models. In particular, land-use change and fire can be treated as large-scale disturbances without full representation of their underlying complexities and interactions. Here we describe developments to the land surface model JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) to represent land-use change and fire as distinct processes which interact with simulated vegetation dynamics. We couple the fire model INFERNO (INteractive Fire and Emission algoRithm for Natural envirOnments) to dynamic vegetation within JULES and use the HYDE (History Database of the Global Environment) land cover dataset to analyse the impact of land-use change on the simulation of present day vegetation. We evaluate the inclusion of land use and fire disturbance against standard benchmarks. Using the Manhattan metric, results show improved simulation of vegetation cover across all observed datasets. Overall, disturbance improves the simulation of vegetation cover by 35 % compared to vegetation continuous field (VCF) observations from MODIS and 13 % compared to the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) from the ESA. Biases in grass extent are reduced from −66 % to 13 %. Total woody cover improves by 55 % compared to VCF and 20 % compared to CCI from a reduction in forest extent in the tropics, although simulated tree cover is now too sparse in some areas. Explicitly modelling fire and land use generally decreases tree and shrub cover and increases grasses. The results show that the disturbances provide important contributions to the realistic modelling of vegetation on a global scale, although in some areas fire and land use together result in too much disturbance. This work provides a substantial contribution towards representing the full complexity and interactions between land-use change and fire that could be used in Earth system models.

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