scholarly journals Analysis of financial contagion in influential African stock markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwatosin Mary Aderajo ◽  
Oladotun Daniel Olaniran
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Variance Estimation ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Multivariate Garch Model ◽  
The Us

AbstractDrawing from the experience of the global financial crisis that sprang forth from the US stock market, an empirical assessment of the dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion with evidence from (5) African countries (South African, Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Tunisia) is presented. Monthly stock prices indices from 2004 to 2018 was analyzed using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model to ascertain the contagious effect of the US to the selected African markets. By analyzing the correlation coefficient series, three phases of the crisis periods were identified {pre-crisis (2004–2007); crisis (2007–2009) and post-crisis (2009–2018), respectively}. The study revealed that a significant relationship exists between the returns of the US market and the African markets. The inspection of the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis mean and variance estimation shows that the crisis period is characterized by substantial increases in volatility, establishing that the shock experienced in the US posed a threat to the African markets being examined. Further, evidence revealed that in the crisis period, an increase in correlation (contagion) existed, while a continued correlation (herding) existed in the post-crisis period.

scholarly journals Crisis determination and financial contagion: an analysis of the Hong Kong and Tokyo stock markets using an MSBVAR approach

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haytem Troug ◽  
Matt Murray
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Using Data

PurposeThe purpose of this paper then, is to add to the existing literature on financial contagion. While a vast amount of the debate has been made using data from the late 1990s, this paper differentiates itself by analysing more current data, centred around the most recent global financial crisis, with specific focus on the stock markets of Hong Kong and Tokyo.Design/methodology/approachEmploying Pearson and Spearman correlation measures, the dynamic relationship of the two markets is determined over tranquil and crisis periods, as specified by an Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression (MSBVAR) model.FindingsThe authors find evidence in support of the existence of financial contagion (defined as an increase in correlation during a crisis period) for all frequencies of data analysed. This contagion is greatest when examining lower-frequency data. Additionally, there is also weaker evidence in some data sub-samples to support “herding” behaviour, whereby higher market correlations persist, following a crisis period.Research limitations/implicationsThe intention of this paper was not to analyse the cause or transmission mechanism of contagion between financial markets. Therefore future studies could extend the methodology used in this paper by including exogenous macroeconomic factors in the MSBVAR model.Originality/valueThe results of this paper serve to explain why the debate of the persistence and in fact existence of financial contagion remains alive. The authors have shown that the frequency of a time series dataset has a significant impact on the level of observed correlation and thus observation of financial contagion.

scholarly journals Transmission Of The Subprime Crisis: Evidence From Industrial And Financial Sectors Of BRIC Countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 1469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jussi Nikkinen ◽  
Kashif Saleem ◽  
Minna Martikainen
Keyword(s):  
Equity Markets ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Industrial Sectors ◽  
Contagion Effects ◽  
The Us

Although, there is an apparent consensus about the contagion effects of the current US subprime crisis. However, the transmission and repercussions of US subprime crisis, as well as the nature of the transformation suffered by different economic sectors between the US and other markets are such empirical questions that have not been dealt with comprehensively, yet. In this paper, by utilizing the multivariate GARCH analysis of Engle and Kroner (1995) for which a BEKK representation is adopted, we examine the transmission of the US subprime crisis across BRIC financial markets. Moreover, to identify the extent of contagion, we also inspect the diffusion of US subprime crisis to BRIC equity markets financial and industrial sectors. We found interesting evidence of volatility spillovers from US financial sector to all the BRIC markets financial sectors both in the full sample and crisis period. Similarly, except Chinese industrial sector, we observe contagion effects from US to Brazilian, Russian and Indian equity markets industrial sectors. Our results exhibit direct linkage for both returns and volatility between the US equity market and the BRIC markets. Equity markets of Russia and India, however, were found hardly hit during the crisis period among the BRIC countries. Finally, we found no support for the decoupling view while investigating the fastest growing emerging markets, the BRIC countries.

scholarly journals Currency Risk Hedging With Time-Varying Correlations

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Binbin Guo
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Dynamic Structure ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Risk Hedging ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
Multivariate Garch Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Optimal Dynamic

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: x-small;">This paper studies currency risk hedge when volatilities and correlations of forward currency contracts and underlying assets returns are all time-varying.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>A multivariate GARCH model with time-varying correlations is adopted to fit the dynamic structure of the conditional volatilities and correlations. The conditional risk-minimizing hedge strategies are estimated for an international portfolio of the US, UK and Switzerland stocks, for the period of February of 1973 to March of 2002. The empirical results show that the optimal dynamic hedging strategies can capture partially the currency fluctuations, and greatly reduce the currency risk and enhance the risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio with significant foreign currency exposures. </span></p>

scholarly journals The source of financial contagion and spillovers: An evaluation of the covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0261835
Author(s):  
Samet Gunay ◽  
Gokberk Can
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the reaction of stock markets to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC) and compares their influence in terms of risk exposures. The empirical investigation is conducted using the modified ICSS test, DCC-GARCH, and Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness analysis to examine financial contagion and volatility spillovers. To further reveal the impact of these two crises, the statistical features of tranquil and crisis periods under different time intervals are also compared. The test results show that although the outbreak’s origin was in China, the US stock market is the source of financial contagion and volatility spillovers during the pandemic, just as it was during the GFC. The propagation of shocks is considerably higher between developed economies compared to emerging markets. Additionally, the results show that the COVID-19 pandemic induced a more severe contagious effect and risk transmission than the GFC. The study provides an extensive examination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the GFC in terms of financial contagion and volatility spillovers. The results suggest the presence of strong co-movements of world stock markets with the US equity market, especially in periods of financial turmoil.

scholarly journals Dynamic correlation analysis in the ASEAN equity markets during 2009–2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-259
Author(s):  
Vesarach Aumeboonsuke
Keyword(s):  
Equity Markets ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Correlations ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
International Investors ◽  
Mean Variance Portfolio

This study examines the static and dynamic correlations in the ASEAN equity markets. The importance of this research appears from the fact that practitioners can get the benefit if their investments yield the same or higher returns given lower or the same risk in their portfolio. Firstly, this advantage comes from including the assets that decrease volatility of the portfolio. Hence, the correlation between the ASEAN markets should be examined. Secondly, co-movements in market realizations may increase global financial instability. Its existence is important for international investors, financial institutions, and policy makers. The study locates the relationship between ASEAN and its major trading partners, including Japanese, US, and UK markets, in order to find more rational results. This study utilizes alternative multivariate GARCH forms to provide useful information on the dynamic evolution and implications of return volatilities. The results show that the volatilities of all the equity markets under study are persistent over time. The estimates from VEC model indicate that the movements of the US and UK equity market returns have some degree of influence on several of the ASEAN equity markets. The results imply that, first, most of the developing ASEAN equity markets work by its own information with small relation to the developed world. Second, it is still convincing to state that investing in ASEAN equity markets should provide investors a better mean-variance portfolio. And, third, buy-and-hold strategy seems to be more beneficial than readjusting the ASEAN equities portfolio.

scholarly journals Random Walk in Emerging Asian Stock Markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Muneer Shaik ◽  
S. Maheswaran
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Optimal Test ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
Random Walk Hypothesis

<p>The random walk hypothesis is an important area of research in finance and many tools have been proposed to investigate the behaviour of the fluctuations in stock prices. However, a detail study on emerging Asian stock markets which employ the various unit root tests has not been done. In this paper, we employ six different unit root tests such as the Augmented Dickey and Fuller test (1979), Phillips and Perron test (1988), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test(1992), Dickey-Fuller GLS (ERS) test (1996), Elliot-Rothenberg-Stock Point-Optimal test (1996) and Ng and Perron (2001) unit root tests on 10 emerging Asian stock markets to detect for the presence of a random walk in stock prices. We have conducted the unit root tests during different sub-sample time periods of global financial crisis to check for robustness. To be specific, we have found that during the overall sample period (2001-2015) 8 out of 10 Asian stock markets and during the pre-crisis period (2001-2007) all the 10 Asian stock market prices do follow random walk according to the unit root tests under consideration. However, during the crisis &amp; post-crisis period (2008-2015) we have found only 5 out of 10 Asian markets follow the random walk movement based on unit root tests.</p>

Spillover effects of the US monetary policy normalization on African stock markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-19
Author(s):  
Ebere Kalu ◽  
Chinwe Okoyeuzu ◽  
Angela Ukemenam ◽  
Augustine Ujunwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Economic Bloc ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

PurposeWe study the contemporaneous effects of US monetary policy normalization on African stock market using panel data from six African countries.Design/methodology/approachDaily data from May 1, 2013 to December 31, 2018 were used in order to accommodate the announcement effects since the US monetary policy normalization announcement was made in May 2013, while the rate hike was in December 2015. The study used the FE, RE and PMG models.FindingsThe results revealed that US 10-year bond yield and Treasury bill rate shocks negatively affect stock prices in Africa. S$P500 shock positively affects African stock prices.The result revealed that the integration of African financial market to the global financial market is a major source of vulnerability. The finding that US Treasury bill rate is a major depressant of the African stock prices reveals the short-termism of foreign polio inflows into African economies.Originality/valueWe provide inexorably insight into the interplay of financial systems globally. It can be useful for the purposes of generalization in developing economies in the shape of African countries. More so, this study could be replicated in another economic bloc or region with the aim of further exposing the far-reaching spillover effects of the US monetary policy normalization.

scholarly journals An empirical examination of the determinant of the US financial CEOs’ compensation for the post-financial crisis period

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 251-258
Author(s):  
Eunsup Daniel Shim ◽  
Jooh Lee
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Financial Crisis Of 2008

The US financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent Global Financial Crisis were considered by many economists the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. As a results, Dodd-Frank Act has passed and aims “(1) to promote the financial stability of the United States by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system, to end "too big to fail", (2) to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts, (3) to protect consumers from abusive financial services practices, and for other purposes.” The enactment of Dodd-Frank Act, in part, intended to significantly influence accountability on executive compensation especially for the financial institutions. This paper empirically investigates the changes in Financial CEOs’ compensation since the Financial Crisis of 2008. Our findings show that in the post- Financial Crisis period financial leverage is significant factor influencing the CEOs’ total compensation. In addition market based performance such as stock price and market-to-book ratio shows significant positive relationship with CEO compensation. This change can be interpreted an attempt to reduce opportunistic behavior of top executives after the financial crisis and the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act

scholarly journals Financial Contagion in EFA Markets in Crisis Periods: A Multivariate GARCH Dynamic Conditional Correlation Framework

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-151
Author(s):  
Mobeen Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crises ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Us ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis

This paper uses the multivariate GARCH dynamic conditional correlation framework proposed by Engle (2002) to investigate time-varying conditional correlation between developed markets and emerging and frontier Asian (EFA) markets. It employs monthly returns data for 2000–14 to capture the potential contagion in developed (the US, Europe and Japan) and EFA stock markets. A key finding is the increasing conditional correlation among EFA and developed markets, especially during the 2008 financial crisis. The study finds that, during periods of financial turmoil, EFA markets are exposed to shocks and spillover effects from developed markets along with a substantial shift in the regime of conditional correlation. This has important implications for investors interested in diversifying portfolios in EFA markets during financial crises.

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