Predicting Offender-Patients' Reconvictions

1974 ◽  
Vol 125 (584) ◽  
pp. 60-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clive Payne ◽  
Sarah McCabe ◽  
Nigel Walker
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Criminal Courts ◽  
Oxford University ◽  
After Care ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Special Hospitals ◽  
By Products

In 1963–4 the Oxford University Penal Research Unit managed to collect information about 90 per cent of the offender-patients who were admitted to N.H.S. and Special Hospitals under hospital orders made by criminal courts: this cohort has been described in Crime and Insanity, Vol. II, by Walker and McCabe (1973). One of the by-products of the follow-up of these offender-patients was a rough and ready scoring system for predicting reconvictions (within a two-year follow-up) of 456 offender-patients who were allowed to leave hospital within a year of admission. A prediction system can be used to assist human decision-making (though it should not be a substitute for it)∗ and can also be used to assess the efficacy of measures—such as after-care—by seeing whether individuals with equal predicted reconviction-rates do better with than without the measure (Mannheim and Wilkins, 1955).

scholarly journals Money Illusion: Reconsidered in the Light of Cognitive Science

2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 191-215
Author(s):  
János Vincze
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Cognitive Bias ◽  
Optical Illusions ◽  
Money Illusion ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Economics Research ◽  
Do So

A basic principle of economics is that people always prefer a larger set of opportunities. Money illusion can be considered as the phenomenon when people may not correctly perceive their budget constraints, and may act in ways that run counter to this preference. In this interpretation, money illusion is a cognitive bias, worthwhile to overcome. Herein I argue that taking a view of human decision-making based on certain strands of cognitive psychology, one can reinterpret the evidence for money illusion in two ways. First, I claim that money illusion is inescapable to some extent, and saying that we suffer from it is similar to alleging that we experience optical illusions, only because we are unable to see, say, individual atoms. Second, taking a view on “preferences” different from the traditional one, I contend that it may bring little benefit to get rid of money illusion even in the cases where it is possible to do so. To follow up the visual analogy, even if we can improve our eyesight it is not obviously desirable. These arguments seem to lead to a Candidean disposition: there is no possible improvement on the state of affairs as far as “money illusion” is concerned. Nonetheless, I will make some positive proposals concerning economic policy and economics research.

scholarly journals Primacy, Congruence and Confidence in Diagnostic Decision-Making

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas F. Frotvedt ◽  
Øystein Bondevik ◽  
Vanessa T. Seeligmann ◽  
Bjørn Sætrevik
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Primacy Effect ◽  
Symptom Presentation ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Complex Decision Making ◽  
Disconfirming Information ◽  
Diagnostic Decision Making

Some heuristics and biases are assumed to be universal for human decision-making, and may thus be expected to appear consistently and need to be considered when planning for real-life decision-making. Yet results are mixed when exploring the biases in applied settings, and few studies have attempted to robustly measure the combined impact of various biases during a decision-making process. We performed three pre-registered classroom experiments in which trained medical students read case descriptions and explored follow-up information in order to reach and adjust mental health diagnoses (∑N = 224). We tested whether the order of presenting the symptoms led to a primacy effect, whether there was a congruence bias in selecting follow-up questions, and whether confidence increased during the decision process. Our results showed increased confidence for participants that did not change their decision or sought disconfirming information. There was some indication of a weak congruence bias in selecting follow-up questions. There was no indication of a stronger congruence bias when confidence was high, and there was no support for a primacy effect of the order of symptom presentation. We conclude that the biases are difficult to demonstrate in pre-registered analyses of complex decision-making processes in applied settings.

Mental Health Review Tribunals

1987 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 96-97
Author(s):  
D. F. Bermingham
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Psychiatric Hospital ◽  
Local Authority ◽  
White Paper ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Delayed Discharge ◽  
After Care ◽  
Special Hospitals ◽  
Health Review

Prior to the 1983 Mental Health Act (MHA), Mental Health Tribunals (MHRTs) did not have the power to order delayed discharge of a patient appealing against a section, although there was evidence that tribunals used the power of adjournment to allow time for follow-up to be arranged. This power was used more often with patients in special hospitals where the option of remaining on an informal basis did not exist. Hepworth and others advocated giving tribunals the power of delayed discharge. This was supported by the White Paper (1978) and subsequently became part of the 1983 MHA, together with some increase in the responsibility of the local authorities to provide after care for Section 3 and 37 patients. But the new Act also allowed the appeal of patients on Section 2, while giving no responsibility to the local authority for their after-care. It was difficult to see how delayed discharge could be implemented as an after-care safeguard for Section 2 patients who would often have only two weeks or so of their Section to run in any case. With this in mind, I studied all cases appearing before the MHRT in a general psychiatric hospital in the two years following the new Act.

Where Does Truth Lie? The Challenges and Imperatives of Fact-Finding in Trial, Appellate, Civil and Criminal Courts and International Commissions of Inquiry

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Criminal Courts ◽  
Appellate Courts ◽  
Relevant Fact ◽  
The Third ◽  
Civil Proceedings ◽  
Ultimate Responsibility ◽  
Human Decision ◽  
Commissions Of Inquiry ◽  
Fact Finding

The author takes three instances to illustrate the difficult but essential task of fact-finding in formal decision-making. The first concerns the residual fact-finding responsibility of appellate courts when scrutinising fact-finding in primary civil proceedings, with an emphasis on incontrovertible facts. The second involves criminal appeals where the prosecution has presented a compelling case of circumstantial evidence, but a retrial may be required because of an unbalanced judicial direction. The third involves an international commission of inquiry on human rights where the state concerned refuses to cooperate yet demonstrates faulty testimony (later acknowledged) by a witness. Human decision-making is always subject to error, whether on the facts or the law. However, that risk cannot impede the imperatives of decision-making and of explaining relevant fact-finding in the most convincing way possible, so as to discharge the ultimate responsibility of reaching a reasoned decision.

Evaluating Human Decision-Making Theories With Monkey Data

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott D. Brown ◽  
Pete Cassey ◽  
Andrew Heathcote ◽  
Roger Ratcliff
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Human Decision

Guideline for radioimmunotherapy of rituximab relapsed or refractory CD20+ follicular B-cell nonHodgkin´s lymphoma

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (05) ◽  
pp. 171-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Behr ◽  
F. Grünwald ◽  
W. H. Knapp ◽  
L. Trümper ◽  
C. von Schilling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Quality Management ◽  
Medical Physics ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Background Information ◽  
After Care ◽  
Complete Treatment ◽  
Close Cooperation ◽  
Work Up

Summary:This guideline is a prerequisite for the quality management in the treatment of non-Hodgkin-lymphomas using radioimmunotherapy. It is based on an interdisciplinary consensus and contains background information and definitions as well as specified indications and detailed contraindications of treatment. Essential topics are the requirements for institutions performing the therapy. For instance, presence of an expert for medical physics, intense cooperation with all colleagues committed to treatment of lymphomas, and a certificate of instruction in radiochemical labelling and quality control are required. Furthermore, it is specified which patient data have to be available prior to performance of therapy and how the treatment has to be carried out technically. Here, quality control and documentation of labelling are of greatest importance. After treatment, clinical quality control is mandatory (work-up of therapy data and follow-up of patients). Essential elements of follow-up are specified in detail. The complete treatment inclusive after-care has to be realised in close cooperation with those colleagues (haematology-oncology) who propose, in general, radioimmunotherapy under consideration of the development of the disease.

History among the Junipers: Hosea 14:2–10 as Metahistoriography

2019 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-116
Author(s):  
Mark W. Hamilton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Moral Formation ◽  
Divine Agency ◽  
Human Decision

Abstract The dual endings of Hosea promoted reflection on Israel’s history as the movement from destruction to restoration based on Yhwh’s gracious decision for Israel. It thus clarifies the endings of the prior sections of the book (chs. 3 and 11) by locating Israel’s future in the realm of Yhwh’s activities. The final ending (14:10) balances the theme of divine agency in 14:2–9 with the recognition of human decision-making and moral formation as aspects of history as well. The endings of Hosea thus offer a good example of metahistoriography, a text that uses non-historiographic techniques to speak of the movements of history.

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