EVOLUTIONARY GAME ANALYSIS FOR RENT-SEEKING BEHAVIOR SUPERVISION OF MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS BASED ON PROSPECT THEORY

Major infrastructure projects (MIPs) possess significant strategic positions in the national economy and social development. However, recently, the rent-seeking behavior between supervision units and project contractors has intensified in project construction. This paper aims to study the behavior decision-making of stakeholders in rent-seeking behavior supervision system of MIPs. In the complex and uncertain environment of MIPs, game players have cognitive bias and value perception preference. Therefore, this study introduced prospect theory and constructed the perceived return matrix and evolutionary game model of MIP rent-seeking behavior supervision among project owners, supervision units, and project contractors. From the perspective of risk perception theory, the reasons for the behavioral tendencies of game participants and the conditions for the steady state of strategy selection were explored through system dynamics simulations. The results showed that the stable state of the optimal strategy in the rent-seeking behavior supervision system of MIPs is related to the cognitive bias of the game players and is influenced by the level of regulation cost, the intensity of punishment and the size of accident losses. The contribution of this study lies in providing theoretical basis and decision support for constructing a long-term preventive mechanism for rent-seeking activities in MIPs.

新型コロナウイルス感染症のヘルスリテラシーとリスクテイク行動および予防行動との関連

In our previous study Survey 1, we found infection prevention behaviors were characterized by health literacy and found to be divided into six segments: "majority/social defense”, “self-judgment/self-protection”, "threat denying”, "hoax affinity/optimism," "vigilance/self-protection”, and "hyper-vigilance/social defense”.The purpose of this study is to confirm the validity of segmentation by health literacy and to examine its relationship with risk-taking behavior and infection prevention behavior.The 6,000 respondents to Survey 1 were asked to answer again, and the 3,800 who responded were targeting in the study.In the results, we found that the fear of infectious diseases and the cognitive bias to believe that they will not be infected led to a regression to each segment, with significant differences between the segments. Significant differences in risk-taking and infection prevention behaviors were also found among the segments. In addition, there was no significant difference in the use of the “ Go to campaign “ among the segments.In risk-taking behavior, "self-judgment and self-protection" is considered to be a risk-taking behavior if the risk of infection is judged to be low based on accurate information obtained by the individual. Threat denial" has the lowest level of infection prevention behavior and is considered to take high-risk behaviors without hesitation. Over-vigilance and social defense" is considered to be a preventive behavior instead of risk-taking behavior due to over-vigilance against infection. In the “Go to campaign” , even if the respondents were highly susceptible to infection and felt threatened by infectious diseases, and even if they had no cognitive bias against infectious diseases, they would use this campaign.

Der Einsatz von Virtueller Realität in der Psychotherapeutischen Praxis: Aktueller Forschungsstand, Chancen, Risiken und Herausforderungen

ZusammenfassungIn den letzten Jahren sind durch die Fortschritte der Digitalisierung neue psychotherapeutische Behandlungsmöglichkeiten und Unterstützungsangebote entstanden. Während sich bestimmte Innovationen wie die Videotherapie im letzten Jahr stark verbreitet haben, sind andere Formate wie z. B. Psychotherapieanwendungen in der Virtuellen Realität (VR) zwar sehr gut wissenschaftlich untersucht, aber dennoch kaum in die (tägliche) Praxis implementiert worden.Der folgende Artikel gibt einen Überblick über den aktuellen Forschungsstand zum Einsatz von VR im Kontext Psychotherapie. Hierbei wird auf zwei wichtige (kognitiv-verhaltenstherapeutische) Interventionsmethoden fokussiert, bei denen VR oft eingesetzt und untersucht wurde: (1) Behaviorale Exposition bei Angsterkrankungen und (2) Modifikation von Informationsverarbeitungsprozessen (Cognitive Bias Modification, CBM). Es werden aktuelle Studien zur Wirksamkeit sowie weitere aktuelle Ergebnisse zur Nutzung und dem Einsatz diskutiert. Weiterhin beschreibt der Artikel die grundsätzliche Nutzung der Virtuellen Realität und definiert wichtige Begriffe und Anwendungen.

Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview

Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management. First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias, as is common. Cognitive bias is half the story; political bias the other half. Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1) strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7) availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10) escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project management are explained, with examples. Third, base rate neglect is identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. This is supported by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in conventional theory.

Impacts of Visualizations on Decoy Effects

The decoy effect is a well-known, intriguing decision-making bias that is often exploited by marketing practitioners to steer consumers towards a desired purchase outcome. It demonstrates that an inclusion of an alternative in the choice set can alter one’s preference among the other choices. Although this decoy effect has been universally observed in the real world and also studied by many economists and psychologists, little is known about how to mitigate the decoy effect and help consumers make informed decisions. In this study, we conducted two experiments: a quantitative experiment with crowdsourcing and a qualitative interview study—first, the crowdsourcing experiment to see if visual interfaces can help alleviate this cognitive bias. Four types of visualizations, one-sided bar chart, two-sided bar charts, scatterplots, and parallel-coordinate plots, were evaluated with four different types of scenarios. The results demonstrated that the two types of bar charts were effective in decreasing the decoy effect. Second, we conducted a semi-structured interview to gain a deeper understanding of the decision-making strategies while making a choice. We believe that the results have an implication on showing how visualizations can have an impact on the decision-making process in our everyday life.