Predictive scoring systems for brain metastasis at diagnosis and at recurrence in non-small cell lung cancer
e19020 Background: Brain metastasis (BM) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) but large studies analyzing potential factors that could be predictive of BM at diagnosis or recurrence are lacking. We have developed 2 predictive scoring models to identify the patients at risk. Methods: A retrospective analysis on 4,294 NSCLC cases, seen between 1994 and 2006, at the Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa, FL was performed utilizing the cancer center's registry data. 477 (11.12%) patients had BM at the time diagnosis and additional 252 (5.82%) patients developed new BM as first recurrence. Results: For patients with BM at diagnosis, age younger than 63 years, non squamous histology and current or never smoking status were all significant in both univariate and multivariate analysis (N= 4174). Based on calculated odds ratios, a scoring system of 0 to 6 points was developed for these patients. Higher scores predicted higher risk for BM (0- 2=3.38%, 3- 4=9.93%, 5=13.65% and 6=21.03%; p <.0001). For patients with new BM at first recurrence, age younger than 63 years, non squamous histology, and the stage at diagnosis (i.e., BM risk in stage III>IV>II>I), were all significant in both univariate and multivariate analysis (N=4291). Based on calculated odds ratios, a scoring system of 0 to 7 points was developed for these patients. Higher scores predicted higher risk for BM (0–1=3.38%, 2–3=4.72%, 4–5= 8.76%, and 6–7=11.83%; p<.0001). Similar risk percentage results were seen after testing the 2 scoring systems in 3 chronologically divided patient groups. Conclusions: The 2 scoring systems developed based only on clinical data were predictive of BM in NSCLC at diagnosis and recurrence. These scoring systems should be helpful for establishing initial and follow up cranial imaging schedules in NSCLC patients. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.