scholarly journals Estimating probability of fatigue failure of steel structures

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. Kala
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Fatigue Crack ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Bending Moment ◽  
Steel Structures ◽  
Fatigue Properties ◽  
Linear Fracture ◽  
Importance Ranking

The article deals with the analysis of failure probability of the effect of random factors in uencing fatigue crack propagation in a steel element under bending moment. The theoretical model of fatigue crack progression is based on linear fracture mechanics. When determining the required degree of failure probability, it is possible to specify the time of the first inspection of the construction, which will focus on the fatigue damage. Using a conditional probability, subsequent inspection times are specified. The failure probability is examined using a fairly new sensitivity analysis subordinated to a contrast. The importance ranking of the input random variables to the failure probability is investigated. Fatigue properties of steel are taken from recent experimental research. Numerical results are obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation.

Risk Management of Construction Schedule by PERT with Monte Carlo Simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 548-549 ◽  
pp. 1646-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Yan Li
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Control Points ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Critical Paths ◽  
Construction Schedule

It has been proved that the construction schedule management was an uncertain problem. Traditional CPM method was a good way to define the total duration and critical paths but can not solve uncertainty. The paper use CPM to define the duration and critical path firstly, then defined the parameters with Delphi and make Monte Carlo simulation. Through simulation results, it is found that the probability to finish the work on time was only 35.3%. The following step is to make sensitivity analysis, through the calculation, the work which has large influence was found and treat as key control points. It is proved that Monte Carlo simulation is useful to solve the problem of construction schedule management.

Reliability Estimation of Buried Pipeline Using FORM, SORM and Monte Carlo Simulation

2006 ◽  
Vol 326-328 ◽  
pp. 597-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Exposure Time ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Reliability Estimation ◽  
Buried Pipeline ◽  
First Order Reliability Method ◽  
First Order ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
The Difference

In this paper, the failure probability is estimated by using the FORM (first order reliability method), the SORM (second order reliability method) and the Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the reliability of the corroded pipeline. It is found that the FORM technique is more effective in estimating the failure probability than the SORM technique for B31G and MB31G models with three different corrosion models. Furthermore, it is noted that the difference between the results of the FORM, the SORM and the Monte Carlo simulation decreases with the increase of the exposure time.

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