Sensitivity Analysis and Estimation of Extreme Tail Behavior in Two-Dimensional Monte Carlo Simulation

Risk Analysis ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 31 (10) ◽  
pp. 1597-1609 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. J. Roelofs ◽  
M. C. Kennedy
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Tail Behavior

Risk Management of Construction Schedule by PERT with Monte Carlo Simulation

2014 ◽  
Vol 548-549 ◽  
pp. 1646-1650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Yan Li
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Critical Path ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Control Points ◽  
Schedule Management ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Critical Paths ◽  
Construction Schedule

It has been proved that the construction schedule management was an uncertain problem. Traditional CPM method was a good way to define the total duration and critical paths but can not solve uncertainty. The paper use CPM to define the duration and critical path firstly, then defined the parameters with Delphi and make Monte Carlo simulation. Through simulation results, it is found that the probability to finish the work on time was only 35.3%. The following step is to make sensitivity analysis, through the calculation, the work which has large influence was found and treat as key control points. It is proved that Monte Carlo simulation is useful to solve the problem of construction schedule management.

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