scholarly journals The Impact of Private Investment in Public Expenditure on Economic Growth in Jiangxi Province—Empirical Analysis Based on State Space Model and SVAR Model

Author(s):  
Yong-bing YANG ◽  
Meng-shi DING
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
james mukoki ◽  
John B Oryema ◽  
James Wokadala

Abstract Background: As part of public expenditure, empirical studies on the impact of military/defense expenditure on the economic growth, particularly in the case of a developing country like Uganda remain still abstruse to both policymakers, researchers, and academicians. There is a scanty agreement in this regard today. For the case of Uganda, a country that has had a fair share of its instabilities and wars, the subject of military expenditure and national security becomes a topic of national importance. And although the country has registered some progress in economic growth, hovering at around 5% annually, its military expenditure as a percentage of GDP has also been raising at an average of 2.5%, and it is projected to continue rising if the present uncertainty in the country remains unabated. Thus, in this study, a time series model is estimated to analyze the association between military/defense expenditure (as % of GDP) and economic growth in Uganda for the period 1970 through 2019. By employing the augmented Solow growth model parameterized through the ARDL model, we test the impact of military expenditure on economic growth in Uganda for both short and long-run scenarios.Results: The findings are indicative that military expenditure does affect economic growth in Uganda although the effect is not significant. Also, the impact of security-related factors such as military expenditure by the neighbors, election year, and conflict type on growth rates seem to be mixed in both short and long-run scenarios. In addition the results reveal that a percentage point change in the level and first lag of military expenditure (Milex) is associated with 0.30 and 2.81 percentage point reduction in GDP growth in Uganda. A similar result is reported in (Islam, 2015; Saba and Ngepah, 2019). However, the impact of military expenditure on the economy has been uncertain depending on the role of the expenditure, for instance, according to (D’Agostino et al., 2012) military expenditure can be growth-enhancing if it is meant to create a peaceful environment for businesses to thrive but it can be detrimental if such expenditure is to finance external wars and internal conflicts, where productive resources like labor and capital are lost thus affecting growth. Conclusion: Several take-home points emerge especially on public expenditure regarding the military versus other productive sectors. For instance governments in developing countries should keenly watch over their respective defense budgets and should thus allocate financial resources in tandem with both internal and external threats to the national security of their countries but also in line with resources allocated to other productive investment sectors like health, education and food productivity, such as agricultural sector in case of Uganda which seem to have direct multiplier growth effects. Besides reduction in military expenditure will avoid the crowding-out effect of productive private investment by government. For the case of Uganda, if such alarming defense expenditures are left unabated, Uganda’s previously registered rates of growth may either stagnate or even deteriorate. Thus an urgent solution is needed. JEL Code: E62 & H5


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji ◽  
Anthony Orji ◽  
Jonathan E. Ogbuabor ◽  
Emmanuel Nwosu

The current decline in global oil prices and the attendant economic distortions it has caused in many oil-dependent economies, such as Nigeria, have become a cause of concern to researchers and economic managers alike. This research work, therefore, investigates the impact of non-oil export (NOIL) on capital formation and economic growth in Nigeria. It adopts a classical linear macroeconomic model using aggregate data time series from 1980 to 2013. Empirical results from the estimated model show that NOIL has a positive impact on capital formation and economic growth in Nigeria, respectively. However, the level of statistical significance differs between capital formation and economic growth. The study, therefore, recommends that there is a need for diversification of the economy as this will go a long way in boosting the growth of the Nigerian economy. Furthermore, the government should create an enabling environment that will ensure the survival and functioning of the ailing industries in order to diversify the economy. Finally, the problem of infrastructural deficits (water supply, transport system, telecommunication and energy) should be tackled by massive public expenditure and private investment, as this will enhance productivity in the non-oil sectors.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Maguire ◽  
Craig Stow ◽  
Casey Godwin

Abstract. Collecting water quality data across large lakes is often done under regulatory mandate, however it is difficult to connect nutrient concentration observations to sources of those nutrients and to quantify this relationship. This difficulty arises from the spatial and temporal separation between observations, the impact of hydrodynamic forces, and the cost involved in discrete samples collected aboard vessels. These challenges are typified in Lake Erie, where binational agreements regulate riverine loads of total phosphorus (TP) to address the impacts from annual harmful algal blooms (HABs). While it is known that the Maumee River supplies 50 % of the nutrient load to Lake Erie, the details of how the Maumee River TP load changes Lake Erie TP concentration have not been demonstrated. We developed a hierarchical spatially referenced Bayesian state-space model with an adjacency matrix defined by surface currents. This was applied to a 2 km-by-2 km grid of nodes, to which observed lake and river TP concentrations were joined. The model generated posterior samples describing the unobserved nodes and observed nodes on unobserved days. We quantified the impact plume of the Maumee River by experimentally changing concentration data and tracking the change of in-lake predictions. Our impact plume represents the spatial and temporal variation of how river concentrations correlate with lake concentrations. We used the impact plume to scale the Maumee River spring TP load to an effective Maumee River TP spring load for each node in the lake. By assigning an effective load to each node the relationship between load and concentration is consistent throughout our sampling locations. A linear model of annual lake node mean TP concentration and effective Maumee River load estimated that in the absence of the Maumee River load lake concentrations at the sampled nodes would be 23.1 µg l−1 (±1.75, 95 % credible interval, CI) and that for each 100 tons of spring TP effective load delivered to Lake Erie, mean TP concentrations increase by 11 µg l−1 (±1, 95 % CI). Our proposed modelling technique allowed us to establish these quantitative connections between Maumee TP load and Lake Erie TP concentrations which otherwise would be masked by the movement of water through space and time.


Green Finance ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-137
Author(s):  
Mengxin Wang ◽  
◽  
Ran Gu ◽  
Meng Wang ◽  
Junru Zhang ◽  
...  

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