Development of comprehensive earthquake loss scenarios for a Greek and a Turkish city: seismic hazard, geotechnical and lifeline aspects

In recent years, a number of research efforts conducted through the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER) have focused on assessing seismic hazard and vulnerability in the Central United States. These multi-year, coordinated multi-investigator research efforts culminated in two loss estimation demonstration projects for Memphis (Shelby County), Tennessee, that evaluate losses associated with buildings and lifelines, respectively. While conducted independently, these two loss estimation studies share similar approaches, such as the emphasis on using detailed local data. Furthermore, the significance of the projects derives not only from the advances made by individual investigators, but also from the innovations developed in synthesizing the various studies into a coordinated loss estimation effort. This paper discusses the NCEER buildings and lifelines loss estimation projects with emphasis on methodological advances and insights from the loss estimation results.

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The Treatment of Earthquake Portfolio Uncertainty: A Focus on Issues of Asset Distribution

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1193/1.1585983 ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 833-849 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Gordon Woo

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Statistical Methods ◽

Single Site ◽

Earthquake Loss ◽

Asset Distribution ◽

Lack Of Knowledge

In estimating the earthquake loss at a given site, procedures have been developed by earthquake engineers for treating the uncertainty arising from lack of knowledge and intrinsic stochastic variability in the local seismic hazard, and in the vulnerability of the property occupying the site. However, in estimating the earthquake loss, not just for a single site, but for a town or county, or for a group of regionally dispersed properties, or for a collection of mobile or portable assets, the treatment of portfolio uncertainty presents an additional statistical challenge to current methodology and practice. Spatial statistical methods are here applied to address portfolio uncertainty; an issue which is particularly important for insurance catastrophe management.

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Expected Annual Earthquake Loss Analysis Based on CMR of Structures

Applied Mechanics and Materials ◽

10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.580-583.1763 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 580-583 ◽

pp. 1763-1766

Author(s):

Li Na Xian ◽

Xiao Ying Ou

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Simulation Models ◽

Incremental Dynamic Analysis ◽

Earthquake Intensity ◽

Nonlinear Simulation ◽

Loss Analysis ◽

Rc Frames ◽

Seismic Loss ◽

Earthquake Loss ◽

Collapse Margin Ratio

Incorporating the probability of seismic hazard, expected annual earthquake loss with different collapse margin ratio (CMR) has been studied in this paper. Nonlinear simulation models of reinforced concrete (RC) frames were analyzed using incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) under continuous earthquake intensity. The analytic results from four examples of RC frames show that the expected annual loss has negative correlation with theCMRof the concerned structures, and seismic loss basically decreases with increasingCMRat given ground motion intensity. The proposed idea herein could be regarded as a promising improvement on the quantification of earthquake loss estimation by utilizingCMRof structures.

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Modelling Seismic Hazard in Earthquake Loss Models with Spatially Distributed Exposure

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.1007/s10518-006-9011-4 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 275-275 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Helen Crowley ◽

Julian J. Bommer

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Spatially Distributed ◽

Earthquake Loss ◽

Loss Models

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Estimating Annualized Earthquake Losses for the Conterminous United States

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1193/010915eqs005m ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 31 (1_suppl) ◽

pp. S221-S243 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Kishor S. Jaiswal ◽

Douglas Bausch ◽

Rui Chen ◽

Jawhar Bouabid ◽

Hope Seligson

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Census Data ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Hazard Maps ◽

Building Stock ◽

Seismic Hazard Maps ◽

Earthquake Losses ◽

Earthquake Loss

We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated Census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous United States has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012 dollars), roughly 80%of which can be attributed to the states of California, Oregon, and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10% to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic states of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for the Central and Eastern United States.

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Modelling Seismic Hazard in Earthquake Loss Models with Spatially Distributed Exposure

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.1007/s10518-006-9009-y ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 249-273 ◽

Cited By ~ 90

Author(s):

Helen Crowley ◽

Julian J. Bommer

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Spatially Distributed ◽

Earthquake Loss ◽

Loss Models

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Seismic Vulnerability Evaluation of Essential Facilities in Memphis and Shelby County, Tennessee

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1193/1.1585826 ◽

1995 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 527-544 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

T. S. Chang ◽

S. Pezeshk ◽

K. C. Yiak ◽

H. T. Kung

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Evaluation System ◽

Seismic Vulnerability ◽

Structural Characteristics ◽

Seismic Zone ◽

Seismic Evaluation ◽

Study Results ◽

Earthquake Loss ◽

Shelby County ◽

Fire Stations

This study is designed to assess potential seismic vulnerability of highly occupied or heavily used essential facilities, including 202 schools, 22 hospitals, and 74 fire stations, in Memphis and Shelby County, Tennessee which may be strongly affected by earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). The seismic evaluation system uses existing data such as site, subsurface condition, foundation, structural characteristics, and results of previous site-specific seismic hazard studies. Results of the study reveal the current overall risk of damage of the essential facilities subject to the recognized seismic hazard in the study area and identify a preliminary pool of the most vulnerable facilities for the highest priority to be used in developing a detailed study to identify retrofit/replacement plans in the near future. Results also provide useful information for long-term upgrade strategies for essential facilities and general buildings in the Memphis area. The study results are important for future detailed study, facility maintenance and improvement, earthquake loss estimates, seismic hazard/risk reduction, and earthquake preparedness/rescue plans in the region.

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PEMETAAN DAERAH RENTAN GEMPA BUMI SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN TATA RUANG DAN WILAYAH DI PROVINSI SULAWESI BARAT

KURVATEK ◽

10.33579/krvtk.v1i2.417 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 41-47

Author(s):

Marinda noor Eva

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Penelitian mengenai daerah rawan gempa bumi ini menggunakan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat, dengan tujuan untuk memetakan tingkat kerawanan bahaya gempa bumi di Kabupaten Mamasa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kejadian gempa bumi di Pulau Sulawesi dan sekitarnya dari tahun 1900 – 2015. Hasil pengolahan PSHA menggunakan Software Ez-Frisk 7.52 yang menghasilkan nilai hazard di batuan dasar pada kondisi PGA (T = 0,0 sekon), dengan periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun berkisar antara (149,54 – 439,45) gal dan (287,18 – 762,81) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 0,2 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun adalah (307,04 – 1010,90) gal dan (569,48 – 1849,78) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 1,0 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun diperoleh nilai (118,01 – 265,75) gal dan (223,74 – 510,92) gal. Berdasarkan analisis PSHA, nilai PGA di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat dominan dipengaruhi oleh sumber gempa sesar.

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