scholarly journals Short-Term Rentals and the Residential Housing System: Lessons from Berlin

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-140
Author(s):  
Adam Crowe ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Residential Housing ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
A Site ◽  
Tourist Accommodation ◽  
Municipal Level ◽  
Market Pressure ◽  
Hotel Accommodation

The increasing professionalisation of Airbnb-style short-term rentals has emerged within a grey space between residential housing and hotel accommodation. Subsequently, an array of contestations have arisen, due in no small part to the intangibility of online short-term rental platforms as well as the absence of clear regulation at the municipal level. In urban settings already confronted with housing issues such as supply shortages and reduced affordability, recent studies show how the proliferation of short-term rentals can amplify housing market pressure while feeding into the broader urban processes of gentrification, touristification, and displacement. Using Berlin, Germany, as a site of analysis, this paper explores the expansion of short-term rentals in relation to various policy interventions designed to regulate the conversion of residential housing into tourist accommodation.

Misuse through short-term rentals on the Berlin housing market

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Schäfer ◽  
Nicole Braun
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Urban Housing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Online Data ◽  
Innovative Design ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tourist Accommodation ◽  
German Cities

Purpose Short-term rentals are mainly of small flats, which are offered to tourists. Currently, the providers of short-term rentals, in particular Airbnb (ABB), are being criticized in several German cities, on the grounds that shares of residential flats are being removed from the housing market, due to illegitimate misuse as tourist accommodation. Thus, the conventional urban housing markets are contending with a decline in housing supply and increasing rents. This paper aims to support these findings empirically. Design/methodology/approach The paper opted first for a spatial analysis with ArcGIS for ABB in Berlin. Second, different online data requests of periods of up to two months were used to analyze the extent of misuse with regard to the Zweckentfremdungsverbot (misuse prohibition law). Third, analysis of variance was used to analyze rental growth on the ABB markets. The data were collected in different approaches from the website of airbnb.com. Findings The paper provides evidence that 5,555 residential flats are presently being misused by ABB (0.30 per cent of the total housing stock in Berlin) and that many providers of entire flats have more than one offer simultaneously. Moreover, the paper provides the first entire-market overview of ABB in Berlin. It is evident that the ABB market is mainly located centrally and that only a few neighborhoods have large ABB markets. Rental growth is higher in the ABB markets which have a significant share of misused flats, than in the ABB markets which have insignificant shares of misused flats. Originality/value To the authors’ best knowledge, the paper provides the first empirical approach regarding misuse through short-term rentals on a housing market with an innovative design and first-hand data.

scholarly journals THE VALUE OF ROBUST STATISTICAL FORECASTS IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 256 ◽  
pp. 19-43
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Castle ◽  
Jurgen A. Doornik ◽  
David F. Hendry
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Measurement ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Changing Trends ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Uk

The Covid-19 pandemic has put forecasting under the spotlight, pitting epidemiological models against extrapolative time-series devices. We have been producing real-time short-term forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths using robust statistical models since 20 March 2020. The forecasts are adaptive to abrupt structural change, a major feature of the pandemic data due to data measurement errors, definitional and testing changes, policy interventions, technological advances and rapidly changing trends. The pandemic has also led to abrupt structural change in macroeconomic outcomes. Using the same methods, we forecast aggregate UK unemployment over the pandemic. The forecasts rapidly adapt to the employment policies implemented when the UK entered the first lockdown. The difference between our statistical and theory based forecasts provides a measure of the effect of furlough policies on stabilising unemployment, establishing useful scenarios had furlough policies not been implemented.

Regulating short-term rentals: Joined cases C-724/18 and C-727/18 Cali Apartments

2021 ◽  
pp. 1023263X2110146
Author(s):  
Tania Pantazi
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Protection ◽  
European Court Of Justice ◽  
Short Term ◽  
European Regulation ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Online Platforms ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
European Court ◽  
Tourist Accommodation ◽  
First Time

The increase in short-term rentals via online platforms has captured the attention of scholars and regulators. Short-term letting is now considered a considerable alternative to traditional tourist accommodation contracts, challenging matters such as conditions in the housing market and consumer protection. Online platforms, such as Airbnb, Booking.com , Expedia and Tripadvisor, now provide offers for short-term accommodation contracts along with traditional accommodation options (hotels, hostels, apartments). The recent decision of the European Court of Justice in Joined cases C-724/18 and C-727/18 addresses for the first time the issue of regulation of short-term rentals in Member States and evaluates a national authorization scheme in light of the Services Directive. The present paper provides a brief background of European regulation affecting short-term rentals and discusses the judgment and its implications for future developments.

Conditions for the Introduction of Regulation for Short-Term Rentals

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-170
Author(s):  
Vilim Brezina ◽  
◽  
Jan Polívka ◽  
Martin Stark ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Stock ◽  
Qualitative Comparative Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Market Situation ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
German Cities

Most cities in major agglomerations in Europe started to address the rise of short-term accommodation rentals by introducing regulation designed to protect the local housing stock. The momentum behind the widespread introduction of such regulations can be attributed to qualitative and quantitative factors. This article examines selected fields related to short-term rentals in order to uncover the (structural) triggers or conditions that are necessary and sufficient for municipalities to initiate the regulation of their housing market. The study is based on the systematic examination of the effects of those triggers and their combinations using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). With this method, we explore the implementation or non-implementation of regulation on a sample of major German cities. The results suggest a universal set of conditions covering three central fields: housing market situation, accommodation market conditions and tourism accommodation demand.

Neighbourhood effects in cross-Atlantic perspective: A longitudinal analysis of impacts on intergenerational mobility in the USA and Germany

Urban Studies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 434-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junia Howell
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Longitudinal Analysis ◽  
Intergenerational Mobility ◽  
Neighbourhood Effects ◽  
Welfare Policies ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Cross National

Research in the USA provides evidence that neighbourhood conditions affect intergenerational mobility. However, what remains unclear is the extent to which the US context is unique in producing this influence. To examine this question, the present study directly compares neighbourhood effects on intergenerational mobility in the USA versus those in Germany – a country whose housing market and social welfare policies differ significantly from those in the USA. Results provide a blueprint for conducting cross-national neighbourhood effects studies and illuminate how the nature and severity of neighbourhood effects are nationally specific. These findings underscore the importance of considering how broader political contexts shape neighbourhood effects on intergenerational mobility – a consideration that has implications for proposed policy interventions.

scholarly journals Capital Structure and The Profitability of Listed Retail Firms

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1(J)) ◽  
pp. 171-181
Author(s):  
Jason Stephen Kasozi
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Order Theory ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Retail Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Return On Assets ◽  
Pecking Order Theory ◽  
Policy Interventions

The South African retail sector continues to experience a decline in sales and returns amidst growing external competition and a drop in consumer confidence stemming from the recent credit downgrades in the country. Yet, firms in this sector appear to maintain high debt to equity levels. This study investigated whether the capital structure practices of these firms influence their profitability. A Panel data methodology, using three regression estimators, is applied to a balanced sample of 16 retail firms listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) during the period 2008-2016. The analysis estimates functions relating capital structure composition with the return on assets (ROA). Results reveal a statistically significant but negative relationship between all measures of debt (short-term, long-term, total debt) with profitability, suggesting a possible inclination towards the pecking order theory of financing behaviour, for listed retail firms. Additionally, retail firms are highly leveraged yet over 75% of this debt is short-term in nature. Policy interventions need to investigate the current restrictions on long-term debt financing which offers longerterm and affordable financing, to boost returns. While this study’s methodology differs slightly from earlier studies, it incorporates vital aspects from these studies, and simultaneously specifies a possible model fit.  This helps to capture unique but salient characteristics like the transitional effects of debt financing on firm profitability.  It therefore delivers some unique findings on the financing behaviour of retail firms that both in form policy change, while stimulating further research on the phenomenon. 

scholarly journals Forecasting Imminent Deaths

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Rizzi ◽  
James W Vaupel
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Excess Death ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Behavioral Healthcare ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Short Term Mortality ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Mortality Forecasts ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Death Count

We introduce a new method for making short-term mortality forecasts of a few months, illustrating it by estimating how many deaths might have happened if some major shock had not occurred. We apply the method to assess excess mortality from March to June 2020 in Denmark and Sweden as a result of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic, associated policy interventions and behavioral, healthcare, social and economic changes. We chose to compare Denmark and Sweden because reliable data were available and because the two countries are similar but chose different responses to covid-19: Denmark imposed a rather severe lockdown; Sweden did not. We make forecasts by age and sex to predict expected deaths if covid-19 had not struck. Subtracting these forecasts from observed deaths gives the excess death count. Excess deaths were lower in Denmark than Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic. The later/earlier ratio we propose for shortcasting is easy to understand, requires less data than more elaborate approaches, and may be useful in many countries in making both predictions about the future and the past to study the impact on mortality of coronavirus and other epidemics. In the application to Denmark and Sweden, prediction intervals are narrower and bias is less than when forecasts are based on averages of the last five years, as is often done. More generally, later/earlier ratios may prove useful in short-term forecasting of illnesses and births as well as economic and other activity that varies seasonally or periodically.

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