scholarly journals THE VALUE OF ROBUST STATISTICAL FORECASTS IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
Vol 256 ◽  
pp. 19-43
Author(s):  
Jennifer L. Castle ◽  
Jurgen A. Doornik ◽  
David F. Hendry
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Measurement ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Changing Trends ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Uk

The Covid-19 pandemic has put forecasting under the spotlight, pitting epidemiological models against extrapolative time-series devices. We have been producing real-time short-term forecasts of confirmed cases and deaths using robust statistical models since 20 March 2020. The forecasts are adaptive to abrupt structural change, a major feature of the pandemic data due to data measurement errors, definitional and testing changes, policy interventions, technological advances and rapidly changing trends. The pandemic has also led to abrupt structural change in macroeconomic outcomes. Using the same methods, we forecast aggregate UK unemployment over the pandemic. The forecasts rapidly adapt to the employment policies implemented when the UK entered the first lockdown. The difference between our statistical and theory based forecasts provides a measure of the effect of furlough policies on stabilising unemployment, establishing useful scenarios had furlough policies not been implemented.

Women in Television in the Multi-Channel Age

2000 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lizzie Thynne
Keyword(s):  
Working Conditions ◽  
Digital Transmission ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Television Industry ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Women's Participation ◽  
Women's Magazine ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of

This article explores the impact of structural and technological change on women's employment in the UK television industry. It looks at the challenges faced by women in working in what has become since the mid-1980s a largely freelance industry where short-term contracts, informal recruitment procedures and long, unpredictable work schedules mean that women find it increasingly difficult to combine a career and family. Through case studies of individual careers, of a women's magazine programme for S4C Digital and a survey of women's credits on a selection of the newer channels (Sky One, UK Living and Channel 5), it argues that technological advances in digital transmission and production will not improve working conditions and opportunities for women's participation in all areas of the industry if they continue to replicate existing practice.

scholarly journals An epidemiological modelling approach for COVID-19 via data assimilation

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 749-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Nadler ◽  
Shuo Wang ◽  
Rossella Arcucci ◽  
Xian Yang ◽  
Yike Guo
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Hybrid Data Assimilation ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Hybrid Data ◽  
Rate Of Recovery ◽  
The Uk

Abstract The global pandemic of the 2019-nCov requires the evaluation of policy interventions to mitigate future social and economic costs of quarantine measures worldwide. We propose an epidemiological model for forecasting and policy evaluation which incorporates new data in real-time through variational data assimilation. We analyze and discuss infection rates in the UK, US and Italy. We furthermore develop a custom compartmental SIR model fit to variables related to the available data of the pandemic, named SITR model, which allows for more granular inference on infection numbers. We compare and discuss model results which conducts updates as new observations become available. A hybrid data assimilation approach is applied to make results robust to initial conditions and measurement errors in the data. We use the model to conduct inference on infection numbers as well as parameters such as the disease transmissibility rate or the rate of recovery. The parameterisation of the model is parsimonious and extendable, allowing for the incorporation of additional data and parameters of interest. This allows for scalability and the extension of the model to other locations or the adaption of novel data sources.

Policy interventions in health and safety: What works and when--Evidence from the UK

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Hollis ◽  
Stavroula Leka ◽  
Aditya Jain ◽  
Nicholas J. A. Andreou ◽  
Gerard Zwetsloot
Keyword(s):  
Health And Safety ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
What Works ◽  
The Uk

ATTITUDE TO OPEN ACCESS IN RUSSIAN SCHOLARLY COMMUNITY: 2018. SURVEY RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. K. Razumova ◽  
N. N. Litvinova ◽  
M. E. Shvartsman ◽  
A. Yu. Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Open Access ◽  
Open Access Publishing ◽  
Scholarly Community ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Policies And Programs ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Level ◽  
Access Policies

Introduction. The paper presents survey results on the awareness towards and practice of Open Access scholarly publishing among Russian academics.Materials and Methods. We employed methods of statistical analysis of survey results. Materials comprise results of data processing of Russian survey conducted in 2018 and published results of the latest international surveys. The survey comprised 1383 respondents from 182 organizations. We performed comparative studies of the responses from academics and research institutions as well as different research areas. The study compares results obtained in Russia with the recently published results of surveys conducted in the United Kingdom and Europe.Results. Our findings show that 95% of Russian respondents support open access, 94% agree to post their publications in open repositories and 75% have experience in open access publishing. We did not find any difference in the awareness and attitude towards open access among seven reference groups. Our analysis revealed the difference in the structure of open access publications of the authors from universities and research institutes. Discussion andConclusions. Results reveal a high level of awareness and support to open access and succeful practice in the open access publications in the Russian scholarly community. The results for Russia demonstrate close similarity with the results of the UK academics. The governmental open access policies and programs would foster the practical realization of the open access in Russia.

The Dynamics of the Short-Term Interest Rate in the UK

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diether W. Beuermann ◽  
Antonios Antoniou ◽  
Alejandro Bernales
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Uk

Digital Ophthalmology in the UK – Diabetic Retinopathy Screening and Virtual Glaucoma Clinics in the National Health Service

2020 ◽  
Vol 237 (12) ◽  
pp. 1400-1408
Author(s):  
Heinrich Heimann ◽  
Deborah Broadbent ◽  
Robert Cheeseman
Keyword(s):  
Diabetic Retinopathy ◽  
National Health Service ◽  
Health Service ◽  
National Health ◽  
Daily Practice ◽  
Diabetic Retinopathy Screening ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Imaging Results ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Retinopathy Screening

AbstractThe customary doctor and patient interactions are currently undergoing significant changes through technological advances in imaging and data processing and the need for reducing person-to person contacts during the COVID-19 crisis. There is a trend away from face-to-face examinations to virtual assessments and decision making. Ophthalmology is particularly amenable to such changes, as a high proportion of clinical decisions are based on routine tests and imaging results, which can be assessed remotely. The uptake of digital ophthalmology varies significantly between countries. Due to financial constraints within the National Health Service, specialized ophthalmology units in the UK have been early adopters of digital technology. For more than a decade, patients have been managed remotely in the diabetic retinopathy screening service and virtual glaucoma clinics. We describe the day-to-day running of such services and the doctor and patient experiences with digital ophthalmology in daily practice.

Specialist infantry and defence engagement

2020 ◽  
pp. bmjmilitary-2020-001455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Blair Thomas Herron ◽  
K M Heil ◽  
D Reid
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Future ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Insight Into

In 2015, the UK government published the National Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) 2015, which laid out their vision for the future roles and structure of the UK Armed Forces. SDSR 2015 envisaged making broader use of the Armed Forces to support missions other than warfighting. One element of this would be to increase the scale and scope of defence engagement (DE) activities that the UK conducts overseas. DE activities traditionally involve the use of personnel and assets to help prevent conflict, build stability and gain influence with partner nations as part of a short-term training teams. This paper aimed to give an overview of the Specialist Infantry Group and its role in UK DE. It will explore the reasons why the SDSR 2015 recommended their formation as well as an insight into future tasks.

scholarly journals Gender inequality in COVID-19 times: evidence from UK prolific participants

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Sonia Oreffice ◽  
Climent Quintana-Domeque
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Gender Inequality ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Gender Gaps ◽  
Health Concerns ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Future State ◽  
Multiple Dimensions ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Uk

Abstract We investigate gender differences across multiple dimensions after 3 months of the first UK lockdown of March 2020, using an online sample of approximately 1,500 Prolific respondents’ residents in the UK. We find that women's mental health was worse than men along the four metrics we collected data on, that women were more concerned about getting and spreading the virus, and that women perceived the virus as more prevalent and lethal than men did. Women were also more likely to expect a new lockdown or virus outbreak by the end of 2020, and were more pessimistic about the contemporaneous and future state of the UK economy, as measured by their forecasted contemporaneous and future unemployment rates. We also show that between earlier in 2020 before the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic and June 2020, women had increased childcare and housework more than men. Neither the gender gaps in COVID-19-related health and economic concerns nor the gender gaps in the increase in hours of childcare and housework can be accounted for by a rich set of control variables. Instead, we find that the gender gap in mental health can be partially accounted for by the difference in COVID-19-related health concerns between men and women.

scholarly journals How Do Subway Signs Affect Pedestrians’ Wayfinding Behavior through Visual Short-Term Memory?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 6866
Author(s):  
Haoru Li ◽  
Jinliang Xu ◽  
Xiaodong Zhang ◽  
Fangchen Ma
Keyword(s):  
Public Transportation ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Memory Capacity ◽  
Cognitive Test ◽  
Subway Station ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Visual Short Term Memory ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Types Of Information

Recently, subways have become an important part of public transportation and have developed rapidly in China. In the subway station setting, pedestrians mainly rely on visual short-term memory to obtain information on how to travel. This research aimed to explore the short-term memory capacities and the difference in short-term memory for different information for Chinese passengers regarding subway signs. Previous research has shown that people’s general short-term memory capacity is approximately four objects and that, the more complex the information, the lower people’s memory capacity. However, research on the short-term memory characteristics of pedestrians for subway signs is scarce. Hence, based on the STM theory and using 32 subway signs as stimuli, we recruited 120 subjects to conduct a cognitive test. The results showed that passengers had a different memory accuracy for different types of information in the signs. They were more accurate regarding line number and arrow, followed by location/text information, logos, and orientation. Meanwhile, information type, quantity, and complexity had significant effects on pedestrians’ short-term memory capacity. Finally, according to our results that outline the characteristics of short-term memory for subway signs, we put forward some suggestions for subway signs. The findings will be effective in helping designers and managers improve the quality of subway station services as well as promoting the development of pedestrian traffic in such a setting.

scholarly journals The contribution of changes to tax and social security to stalled life expectancy trends in Scotland: a modelling study

2020 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-214770
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Richardson ◽  
Martin Taulbut ◽  
Mark Robinson ◽  
Andrew Pulford ◽  
Gerry McCartney
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Tax Credits ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Group Sex ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Social Security Benefits ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Welfare Reforms ◽  
Detrimental Impact

BackgroundLife expectancy (LE) improvements have stalled, and UK tax and welfare ‘reforms’ have been proposed as a cause. We estimated the effects of tax and welfare reforms from 2010/2011 to 2021/2022 on LE and inequalities in LE in Scotland.MethodsWe applied a published estimate of the cumulative income impact of the reforms to the households within Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintiles. We estimated the impact on LE by applying a rate ratio for the impact of income on mortality rates (by age group, sex and SIMD quintile) and calculating the difference between inflation-only changes in benefits and the reforms.ResultsWe estimated that changes to household income resulting from the reforms would result in an additional 1041 (+3.7%) female deaths and 1013 (+3.8%) male deaths. These deaths represent an estimated reduction of female LE from 81.6 years to 81.2 years (−20 weeks), and male LE from 77.6 years to 77.2 years (−23 weeks). Cuts to benefits and tax credits were modelled to have the most detrimental impact on LE, and these were estimated to be most severe in the most deprived areas. The modelled impact on inequalities in LE was widening of the gap between the most and least deprived 20% of areas by a further 21 weeks for females and 23 weeks for males.InterpretationThis study provides further evidence that austerity, in the form of cuts to social security benefits, is likely to be an important cause of stalled LE across the UK.

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