scholarly journals The interrelationship between meteorological parameters and leptospirosis incidence in Hambantota district, Sri Lanka 2008–2017 and practical implications

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0245366
Author(s):  
N. D. B. Ehelepola ◽  
Kusalika Ariyaratne ◽  
D. S. Dissanayake
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Evaporation Rate ◽  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Long Term Study ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Weather Parameters

Background Leptospirosis is a bacterial zoonosis. Leptospirosis incidence (LI) in Sri Lanka is high. Infected animals pass leptospires to the environment with their urine. Leprospires' survival in the environment to infect a new host depends on meteorological factors. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) modulate the weather in Sri Lanka. Objectives The determination of interrelationship between the LI in the Hambantota District, and local meteorological parameters, ENSO and IOD. Methods We acquired notified leptospirosis cases in the Hambantota District and population data. We calculated weekly leptospirosis incidences for 2008 to 2017.Weather data from two weather stations was obtained, averaged and converted into weekly data. We plotted time series graphs and observed the correlation between seven aggregated weather parameters and LI. We estimated cross-correlations between those weather parameters and LI. As our principal analysis we determined correlation between LI and seven local weather parameters, Nino 3.4, Nino4 and Dipole Mode Index (DMI) indices using wavelet analysis. Results Our wavelet analysis results showed troughs of minimum, maximum, mean temperatures, soil temperature, the evaporation rate, the duration of sunshine were followed by peaks in LI and peaks of rainfall followed by peaks of LI, all after lag periods. Our time series graphs and cross-correlation determination results are generally in agreement with these results. However there was no significant correlation between rainfall and LI in the cross-correlation analysis. There were peaks of LI following both peaks and troughs of DMI. There was no clear correlation between both Nino indices and LI. Discussion This may be the first long-term study demonstrating soil temperature, evaporation rate and IOD are correlating with LI. The correlation pattern of LI with temperature parameters differs from similar past studies and we explain the reasons. We propose ways to control high LI we observed after periods of weather favorable for transmission of leptospirosis.

scholarly journals The correlation between three teleconnections and leptospirosis incidence in the Kandy District, Sri Lanka, 2004–2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. D. B. Ehelepola ◽  
Kusalika Ariyaratne ◽  
A. M. S. M. C. M. Aththanayake ◽  
Kamalanath Samarakoon ◽  
H. M. Arjuna Thilakarathna
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Wavelet Analysis ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Enso Modoki ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Teleconnection Indices ◽  
Weather Parameters ◽  
Time Lagged

Abstract Background Leptospirosis is a bacterial zoonosis. Leptospirosis incidence (LI) in Sri Lanka is high. Infected animals excrete leptospires into the environment via their urine. Survival of leptospires in the environment until they enter into a person and several other factors that influence leptospirosis transmission are dependent upon local weather. Past studies show that rainfall and other weather parameters are correlated with the LI in the Kandy district, Sri Lanka. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), ENSO Modoki, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are teleconnections known to be modulating rainfall in Sri Lanka. There is a severe dearth of published studies on the correlations between indices of these teleconnections and LI. Methods We acquired the counts of leptospirosis cases notified and midyear estimated population data of the Kandy district from 2004 to 2019, respectively, from weekly epidemiology reports of the Ministry of Health and Department of Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka. We estimated weekly and monthly LI of Kandy. We obtained weekly and monthly teleconnection indices data for the same period from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the USA and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). We performed wavelet time series analysis to determine correlations with lag periods between teleconnection indices and LI time series. Then, we did time-lagged detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) to verify wavelet analysis results and to find the magnitudes of the correlations detected. Results Wavelet analysis displayed indices of ENSO, IOD, and ENSO Modoki were correlated with the LI of Kandy with 1.9–11.5-month lags. Indices of ENSO showed two correlation patterns with Kandy LI. Time-lagged DCCA results show all indices of the three teleconnections studied were significantly correlated with the LI of Kandy with 2–5-month lag periods. Conclusions Results of the two analysis methods generally agree indicating that ENSO and IOD modulate LI in Kandy by modulating local rainfall and probably other weather parameters. We recommend further studies about the ENSO Modoki and LI correlation in Sri Lanka. Monitoring for extreme teleconnection events and enhancing preventive measures during lag periods can blunt LI peaks that may follow.

Provincial Level Time Series Analysis : Community Mobility and COVID-19 Daily Cases in Turin, Italy (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dayana Benny
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Provincial Level ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
The Past ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Community Mobility ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Restrictive Measures

BACKGROUND Turin, a province in the Piedmont region sees second highest new COVID-19 infections in Northern part of Italy as of March 31, 2021. During the first wave of pandemic, many restrictive measures were introduced in this province. There are many studies that conducted time series analysis of various regions in Italy, but studies that are analysing the data in province level are limited. Also, no applications of Cross Correlation Function(CCF) have been proposed to analyse relationships between COVID-19 new cases and community mobility at the provincial level in Italy. OBJECTIVE The goal of this time series analysis is to find how the restrictive measures in Turin province, Italy impacted community mobility and helped in flattening the epidemic curve during the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS A simple time series analysis is conducted in this study to analyse whether there is an association between COVID-19 daily cases and community mobility. In this study, we analysed whether the time series of the parameter that estimates the reproduction of infection in the outbreak is related to the past lags of community mobility time series by performing cross-correlation analysis. RESULTS Multiple regression is carried out in which the R0 variable is a linear function of past lags 6, 7, 8, and 1 of the community mobility variable and all coefficients are statistically significant where P = 0.024043, 2.69e-05, 0.045350 and 0.000117 respectively. The cross-correlation between data fitted from the significant past lags of community mobility and transformed basic reproduction number (R0) time-series is obtained in such a manner that the R0 of a day is related to the past lags of community mobility in Turin province. CONCLUSIONS Our analysis shows that the restrictive measures are having an impact on community mobility during the first wave of COVID-19 and it can be related to the reported secondary cases of COVID-19 in Turin province at that time. Through further improvement, this simple model could serve as preliminary research for developing right preventive methods during the early stages of an epidemic.

Provincial Level Time Series Analysis : Community Mobility and COVID-19 Daily Cases in Turin, Italy (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dayana Benny
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Provincial Level ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
The Past ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Community Mobility ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Restrictive Measures

BACKGROUND Turin, a province in the Piedmont region sees second highest new COVID-19 infections in Northern part of Italy as of March 31, 2021. During the first wave of pandemic, many restrictive measures were introduced in this province. There are many studies that conducted time series analysis of various regions in Italy, but studies that are analysing the data in province level are limited. Also, no applications of Cross Correlation Function(CCF) have been proposed to analyse relationships between COVID-19 new cases and community mobility at the provincial level in Italy. OBJECTIVE The goal of this time series analysis is to find how the restrictive measures in Turin province, Italy impacted community mobility and helped in flattening the epidemic curve during the first wave of the pandemic. METHODS A simple time series analysis is conducted in this study to analyse whether there is an association between COVID-19 daily cases and community mobility. In this study, we analysed whether the time series of the parameter that estimates the reproduction of infection in the outbreak is related to the past lags of community mobility time series by performing cross-correlation analysis. RESULTS Multiple regression is carried out in which the R0 variable is a linear function of past lags 6, 7, 8, and 1 of the community mobility variable and all coefficients are statistically significant where P = 0.024043, 2.69e-05, 0.045350 and 0.000117 respectively. The cross-correlation between data fitted from the significant past lags of community mobility and transformed basic reproduction number (R0) time-series is obtained in such a manner that the R0 of a day is related to the past lags of community mobility in Turin province. CONCLUSIONS Our analysis shows that the restrictive measures are having an impact on community mobility during the first wave of COVID-19 and it can be related to the reported secondary cases of COVID-19 in Turin province at that time. Through further improvement, this simple model could serve as preliminary research for developing right preventive methods during the early stages of an epidemic.

scholarly journals Measurements of solar internal rotation obtained with the Mt. Wilson 60-foot solar tower

1988 ◽  
Vol 123 ◽  
pp. 41-44
Author(s):  
Edward J. Rhodes ◽  
Alessandro Cacciani ◽  
Martin Woodard ◽  
Steven Tomczyk ◽  
Sylvain Korzennik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Optical Filter ◽  
Power Spectra ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Current Limit ◽  
Surface Rotation ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Full Disk

We have obtained estimates of the solar internal rotational velocity from measurements of the frequency splittings of p-mode oscillations. Specifically, we have analyzed a 10-day time series of full-disk Dopplergrams obtained during July and August 1984 at the 60-Foot Tower Telescope of the Mt. Wilson Observatory. The Dopplergrams were obtained with a Na magneto-optical filter and a 244 × 248-pixel CID camera. From the time series we computed power spectra for all of the prograde and retrograde sectoral p-modes from ℓ = 0 to 200 and for all of the tessaral harmonics up to ℓ = 89. We then applied a cross-correlation analysis to the resulting sectoral power spectra to obtain estimates of the frequency splittings. From ℓ = 4 to ℓ = 30 we obtained a mean value of the frequency spitting of roughly 450 nHz (sidereal) in close agreement with most previously published results, while from ℓ = 40 to ℓ = 140 we obtained a mean value of about 470 nHz. We believe that the latter value is slightly higher than the surface rotational splitting of 461 nHz because of possible confusion due to the temporal sidelobes introduced by the day/night observing cycle. Confirmation of this possibility will have to await our computation of tesseral power spectra for degrees greater than our current limit of 89. Finally, for degrees between 140 and 200, the frequency splittings are indistinguishable from the surface rotation rate.

Multiscale Multifractal Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis of High-Frequency Financial Time Series

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (03) ◽  
pp. 1950014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingjing Huang ◽  
Danlei Gu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Change Of Scale ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
The Cross

In order to obtain richer information on the cross-correlation properties between two time series, we introduce a method called multiscale multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MM-DCCA). This method is based on the Hurst surface and can be used to study the non-linear relationship between two time series. By sweeping through all the scale ranges of the multifractal structure of the complex system, it can present more information than the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). In this paper, we use the MM-DCCA method to study the cross-correlations between two sets of artificial data and two sets of 5[Formula: see text]min high-frequency stock data from home and abroad. They are SZSE and SSEC in the Chinese market, and DJI and NASDAQ in the US market. We use Hurst surface and Hurst exponential distribution histogram to analyze the research objects and find that SSEC, SZSE and DJI, NASDAQ all show multifractal properties and long-range cross-correlations. We find that the fluctuation of the Hurst surface is related to the positive and negative of [Formula: see text], the change of scale range, the difference of national system, and the length of time series. The results show that the MM-DCCA method can give more abundant information and more detailed dynamic processes.

scholarly journals Scale Analysis and Correlation Study of Wildfire and the Meteorological Factors That Influence It

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiazheng Lu ◽  
Tejun Zhou ◽  
Bo Li ◽  
Chuanping Wu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Detrended Fluctuation

Wildfire is a large-scale complex system. Insight into the mechanism that drives wildfires can be revealed by the distribution of the wildfire over a large time scale, which is one of the important topics in wildfire research. In this study, the scaling properties of four meteorological factors (relative humidity, daily precipitation, daily average temperature, and maximum wind speed) that can affect wildfires (number of wildfires per day) were investigated by using the detrended fluctuation analysis method. The results showed that the time series for these meteorological factors and wildfires have similar power exponents and turning points for the power exponents curve. The five types of time series have a lasting and steady long-range power law correlation over a certain time scale range, where the corresponding exponents were 0.6484, 0.5724, 0.8647, 0.7344, and 0.6734, respectively. They also have a reversible long-range power law correlation beyond a certain time scale, where the corresponding exponents are 0.3862, 0.2218, 0.1372, 0.2621, and 0.2678. The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis results showed that the wildfire time series were multifractal. The results of the research based on the detrended cross-correlation analysis and the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis showed that relative humidity and daily precipitation have a considerable impact on the wildfire time series, while the impacts of daily average temperature and the maximum wind speed are relatively small. This study showed that identifying the factors causing the inherent volatility in the wildfire time series can improve understanding of the dynamic mechanism controlling wildfires and the meteorological parameters. These results can also be used to quantify the correlation between wildfire and the meteorological factors investigated in this study.

Importance of Body Sway Velocity Information in Controlling Ankle Extensor Activities During Quiet Stance

2003 ◽  
Vol 90 (6) ◽  
pp. 3774-3782 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kei Masani ◽  
Milos R. Popovic ◽  
Kimitaka Nakazawa ◽  
Motoki Kouzaki ◽  
Daichi Nozaki
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Muscle Activity ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Gastrocnemius Muscle ◽  
Quiet Stance ◽  
Lateral Gastrocnemius ◽  
Velocity Feedback ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Velocity Information

In literature, it has been suggested that the CNS anticipates spontaneous change in body position during quiet stance and continuously modulates ankle extensor muscle activity to compensate for the change. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether velocity feedback contributes by modulating ankle extensor activities in an anticipatory fashion, facilitating effective control of quiet stance. Both theoretical analysis and experiments were carried out to investigate to what extent velocity feedback contributes to controlling quiet stance. The experiments were carried out with 16 healthy subjects who were asked to stand quietly with their eyes open or closed. During the experiments, the center of pressure (COP) displacement (COPdis), the center of mass (COM) displacement (COMdis), and COM velocity (COMvel) in the anteroposterior direction were measured. Rectified electromyograms (EMGs) were used to measure muscle activity in the right soleus muscle, the medial gastrocnemius muscle, and the lateral gastrocnemius muscle. The simulations were performed using an inverted pendulum model that described the anteroposterior kinematics and dynamics of quiet stance. In the simulations, an assumption was made that the COMdis of the body would be regulated using a proportional-derivative (PD) controller. Two different PD controllers were evaluated in these simulations: 1) a controller with the high-derivative/velocity gain (HDG) and 2) a controller with the low-derivative/velocity gain (LDG). Cross-correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationships between time series obtained in experiments 1) COMdis and EMGs and 2) COMvel and EMGs. Identical cross-correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationships between time series obtained in simulations 3) COMdis and ankle torque and 4) COMvel and ankle torque. The results of these analyses showed that the COMdis was positively correlated with all three EMGs and that the EMGs temporally preceded the COMdis. These findings agree with the previously published studies in which it was shown that the lateral gastrocnemius muscle is actively modulated in anticipation of the body's COM position change. The COMvel and all three EMGs were also correlated and the cross-correlation function (CCF) had two peaks: one that was positive and another that was negative. The positive peaks were statistically significant, unlike the negative ones; they were larger than the negative peaks; and their time shifts were much shorter compared with the time shifts of the negative peaks. When these results were compared with the CCF results obtained for simulated time series, it was discovered that the cross-correlation results for the HDG controller closely matched cross-correlation results for the experimental time series. On the other hand, the simulation result obtained for LDG controller did not match the experimental results. These findings suggest that the actual postural control system during quiet stance adopts a control strategy that relies notably on velocity information and that such a controller can modulate muscle activity in anticipatory manner without using a feed-forward mechanism.

MODELING CROSS-CORRELATIONS OF TRAFFIC FLOW

2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 3323-3328 ◽  
Author(s):  
PENGJIAN SHANG ◽  
KEQIANG DONG ◽  
SANTI KAMAE
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Cross Correlation ◽  
Heavy Tails ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
Large Increment ◽  
Active Research

The study of diverse natural and nonstationary signals has recently become an area of active research for physicists. This is because these signals exhibit interesting dynamical properties such as scale invariance, volatility correlation, heavy tails and fractality. The focus of the present paper is on the intriguing power-law autocorrelations and cross-correlations in traffic series. Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (DCCA) is used to study the traffic flow fluctuations. It is demonstrated that the time series, observed on the Anhua-Bridge highway in the Beijing Third Ring Road (BTRR), may exhibit power-law cross-correlations when they come from two adjacent sections or lanes. This indicates that a large increment in one traffic variable is more likely to be followed by large increment in the other traffic variable. However, for traffic time series derived from nonadjacent sections or lanes, we find that even though they are power-law autocorrelated, there is no cross-correlation between them with a unique exponent. Our results show that DCCA techniques based on Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) can be used to analyze and interpret the traffic flow.

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