Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Using Cohort Studies

Abstract Background: We conducted this study to combine the mean standardized uptake value (SUVmean) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to establish a strong predictive model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 163 newly diagnosed ESCC patients treated with CCRT. Eighty patients (training set) were randomly selected to generate cut-off SUVmean and NLR values by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and to establish a predictive model by using the independent predictors of treatment outcomes. Then, we evaluated the performance of the prediction model regarding treatment outcomes in the testing set (n=83) and in all sets. Results: A high SUVmean (>5.81) and high NLR (> 2.42) at diagnosis were associated with unfavorable treatment outcomes in patients with ESCC. The prediction model had a better performance than the simple parameters (p<0.05). With a cut-off value of 0.77, the prediction model significantly improved the specificity and positive predictive value for treatment response (88.9% and 92.1% in the training set, 95.8% and 97.1% in the testing set, and 92.2% and 91.8% in all sets, respectively). Conclusions: The pretreatment SUVmean and NLR were independent predictors of treatment response in ESCC patients treated with CCRT. The predictive model was constructed based on these two parameters and provides a highly accurate tool for predicting patient outcomes.

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Endoscopic prediction model for differentiating upper submucosal invasion (< 200 μm) and beyond in superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Oncotarget ◽

10.18632/oncotarget.23900 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (10) ◽

pp. 9156-9165 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Joohwan Bae ◽

In Seub Shin ◽

Yang Won Min ◽

Insuk Sohn ◽

Joong Hyun Ahn ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽

Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽

Prediction Model ◽

Cell Carcinoma ◽

Squamous Cell ◽

Submucosal Invasion

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Transcription/Expression of KLRB1 Gene as A Prognostic Indicator in Human Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Combinatorial Chemistry & High Throughput Screening ◽

10.2174/1386207323666200517114154 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 23 (7) ◽

pp. 667-674

Author(s):

Guangwei Zhang ◽

Ying Liu ◽

Fajin Dong ◽

Xianming Liu

Keyword(s):

Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽

Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽

Prediction Model ◽

Cell Carcinoma ◽

Squamous Cell ◽

Treatment Options ◽

Risk Groups ◽

Prognostic Indicator ◽

Dismal Prognosis ◽

N Stage

Aim and Objective: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is the most prevalent type of cancer with worldwide distribution and dismal prognosis despite ongoing efforts to improve treatment options. Therefore, it is essential to determine the prognostic factors for ESCC. Methods and Results: We determined KLRB1 to be a prognostic indicator of human ESCC. KLRB1 was expressed at low levels in ESCC patients. Based on the risk score, patients were divided into high and low-risk groups. High-risk patients showed a poor survival rate. The prediction model based on the N stage, sex, and KLRB1 was significantly better than that based on the N stage and sex. The modified prediction model showed a robust ROC curve with an AUC value of 0.973. The knockdown of KLRB1 inhibited the growth of human ESCC cells. KLRB1 regulated Akt, mTOR, p27, p38, NF-κB, Cyclin D1, and JNK signaling, which was consistent with the result of GSEA. Conclusion: KLRB1 is a potential prognostic marker for human ESCC patients.

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