Demand Forecast of Jakarta-Surabaya High Speed Rail based on Stated Preference Method

This study investigated the impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on social equity, utilizing information from a stated preference survey conducted in Vietnam. Social equity was examined across the population of four cities representing the northern, central, and southern areas of Vietnam. In general, the high price of HSR is one of the barriers to using HSR over inter-city buses and conventional trains. Low-income groups (less than VND 6 million per month) have 4.894 and 4.725 times the likelihoods, compared to higher income groups, of retaining the use of an inter-city bus or conventional train, respectively, after introducing HSR. Our findings reveal the fact that social inequity may occur, with the low-income group being especially vulnerable, due to the existence of HSR in the future. Furthermore, our results indicate that the interest of people towards inter-city buses and conventional trains varied among the four cities before and after the presence of HSR. More specifically, low-income groups in Vinh and Nha Trang were observed to have a higher feeling of staying away from HSR, as they prefer to use inter-city buses. The findings of this study suggest that planners and policymakers need to consider various components of HSR ticket planning, in order to achieve sustainable evolution of the passenger rail system.

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An Intercity Freight Mode Choice Model : A Case Study of High Speed Rail Link Northern Line Thailand (Bangkok – Chiangmai)

MATEC Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/matecconf/202030804003 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 308 ◽

pp. 04003

Author(s):

Jessada Pochan ◽

Wachira Wichitphongsa

Keyword(s):

High Speed ◽

Choice Model ◽

Stated Preference ◽

Mode Choice ◽

Selling Price ◽

High Speed Rail ◽

Time Frequency ◽

Rail System ◽

Loading And Unloading ◽

Freight Mode Choice

This paper presents a model capturing the intercity freight mode choice behaviour in high-speed rail system from Bangkok to Chiangmai. The model is developed based on the stated preference data collected from 800 freight operators, wholesaler, retailer, and people. The results show that, when the high-speed rail system from Bangkok to Chiangmai are developing in the future, the suitable products for high-speed rail system are types of an express mail service (EMS), air cargo, gold, jewellery, gold accessories, computer circuit boards, high prices agricultural products such as fruit, and flowers. Most of determining the selling price will fluctuate with the speed of transport and damage impairment of the product. With the application of discrete choice models, the results show that, aside from travel cost and time, loading and unloading, delays time, frequency are statistically significant. The application of model indicated that the holder and freight forwarder which in the line of high-speed rail (Bangkok – Chiangmai) tend to use rail-transport such as double-track rail is 27.71%, high-speed rail is 11.18% and the most is trucks 56.51% which is a policy development point loading and unloading, multimodal transportation efficiency and safety of the portion of the freight high-speed rail increased.

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PECULIARITIES IN THE DEMAND FORECAST FOR AN HSRL CONNECTING TWO COUNTRIES. CASE OF KUALA LUMPUR – SINGAPORE HSRL

Libro de Actas CIT2016. XII Congreso de Ingeniería del Transporte ◽

10.4995/cit2016.2016.3458 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

Patricia Rey Romero ◽

Aldara Tadeo Martín

Keyword(s):

High Speed ◽

Early Stage ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Generation Model ◽

Kuala Lumpur ◽

Demand Forecast ◽

High Speed Rail ◽

The Future ◽

The Government ◽

City State

The High Speed Rail Line (HSRL) between Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Singapore (SP) is aimed at reducing to 90 minutes the travel time between two of Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and fast-growing economic engines. Ineco was hired by the Government of Malaysia to forecast the demand for the future HSRL. The Government of Malaysia played a key role when firstly defining the current situation on the corridor and the features of the HSRL, and then providing Ineco with the studies previously developed by them. Besides the obvious interest in connecting both capital cities, Malaysia wishes to promote the economic development of intermediate cities, whereas Singapore, a 718 square-kilometer city-state and island, is interested in improving its connection with Nusajaya - a Malaysian city that is being developed just across the border and regarded as land reserves. Two kinds of services will be provided on the new rail infrastructure: non-stop services between KL and SP, and services with 6 intermediate stops on the Malaysian side. The aim of this paper is to describe the process to forecast the demand for the HSRL Kuala Lumpur – Singapore by focusing on the peculiarities of an international HSRL. Identifying these aspects at an early stage is vital to get a better demand estimate and to reconsider the HSRL characteristics if necessary. The demand for the new line was calculated by applying a three-step model: generation model, distribution model and modal split model. In 2030, 10 years after the opening year, the HSRL is expected to move 23 - 26 million passengers – baseline and optimistic scenarios, respectively -, which represents an 18.5% share of the total demand on the corridor. The demand for the KL-SP pair will account for 30% the demand for the future HSRL.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/CIT2016.2016.3458

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High-Speed Rail, Inter-Modal Substitution and Willingness-to-Pay. A Stated Preference Analysis for the 'Bari-Rome'

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3091537 ◽

2017 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Angela Stefania Bergantino ◽

Leonardo Madio

Keyword(s):

Willingness To Pay ◽

High Speed ◽

Stated Preference ◽

High Speed Rail ◽

Preference Analysis

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A Study on High-Speed Rail Pricing Strategy in the Context of Modes Competition

Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society ◽

10.1155/2013/715256 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2013 ◽

pp. 1-6 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Enjian Yao ◽

Qirong Yang ◽

Yongsheng Zhang ◽

Xun Sun

Keyword(s):

Theoretical Analysis ◽

Market Share ◽

High Speed ◽

Stated Preference ◽

Choice Models ◽

Pricing Strategy ◽

High Speed Rail ◽

Nested Structure ◽

Transport Modes ◽

Occupancy Rates

High-speed rail (HSR) has developed rapidly in China over the recent years, for the less pollution, faster speed, comfort, and safety. However, there is still an issue on how to improve the seat occupancy rates for some HSR lines. This research analyzes the pricing strategy for HSR in Wuhan-Guangzhou corridor based on the competition among different transport modes with the aim of improving occupancy rates. It starts with the theoretical analysis of relationship between market share and ticket fare, and then disaggregate choice models with nested structure based on stated preference (SP) data are established to obtain the market share of HSR under specific ticket fare. Finally, a pricing strategy is proposed to improve the occupancy rates for Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR. The results confirm that a pricing strategy with floating fare should be accepted to improve the profit of HSR; to be specific, the ticket fare should be set in lower level on weekdays and higher level on holidays.

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