Transport network resilience: a mapping and sensitivity analysis strategy to improve the decision-making process during extreme weather events

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 330
Author(s):  
Beatriz Martinez Pastor ◽  
Maria Nogal ◽  
Alan O' ◽  
N.A. Connor ◽  
Rui Teixeira
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Transport Network ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Network Resilience ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Analysis Strategy

scholarly journals Advancing Seaport Resilience to Natural Hazards Due to Climate Change: Strategies to Overcome Decision Making Barriers

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth L. Mclean ◽  
Austin Becker
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Sustainable Operations ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Face ◽  
Research And Education

Climate change and extreme weather events put in peril the critical coastal infrastructure that is vital to economies, livelihoods, and sustainability. However, for a variety of reasons, decision makers often do not implement potential adaptation strategies to plan and adjust to climate and extreme weather events. To respond to the question of how seaport decision makers perceive strategies to overcome the barriers to adaptation we used semi-structured interviews of 30 seaport directors/managers, environmental specialists, and safety managers from 15 medium- and high-use ports of the U.S. North Atlantic. This paper contributes four broad strategies identified by seaport decision makers as necessary to help them advance on this challenge: funding, better planning or guidance, research and education, and advocacy/lobbying. We coded these strategies parallel to our partner paper that identified seven key barriers faced by the same set of decision makers. Results can help direct resources in ways targeted to the needs of seaport decision makers. The proposed framework contributes to theories of resilience building and barriers to decision making. Being strategic about change facilitates effective adaptation, decreasing risk, and enables continuity of safe, and sustainable, operations of U.S. seaports in the face of climate and extreme weather events.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Index of a Rural Municipality’s Vulnerability to Losses Resulting from Extreme Weather Events

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Kocur-Bera
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Numerical Indicator ◽  
Financial Losses

Vulnerability index describes, in the form of a numerical indicator, the vulnerability of rural areas to financial losses resulting from extreme weather events. The index can also be used for the management, planning and administration of a space. A sensitivity analysis is a technique used to determine the response of the index under study to a change to either the value or the number of variables. This technique is used within specified boundaries which depend on one or more input variables. The main aim of the study was to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the vulnerability index depending on the number of variables making up this index. Results show that the excess of features under consideration results in the distortion of the level of the index of vulnerability to financial losses resulting from extreme weather events, while the determination of vulnerability on the sole basis of the arising financial losses may lead to erroneous conclusions.

scholarly journals An Application of a Risk-Based Methodology to Anticipate Critical Situations Due to Extreme Weather Events in Transmission and Distribution Grids

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 4742
Author(s):  
Emanuele Ciapessoni ◽  
Andrea Pitto ◽  
Diego Cirio
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Network ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
New Right ◽  
Network Resilience ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Wet Snow ◽  
Optimal Reconfiguration ◽  
New Methodologies ◽  
Transmission And Distribution

Nowadays, distribution network operators are urged by regulatory authorities to reduce the load disruptions due to extreme weather events, i.e., to enhance network resilience: in particular, in Italy they are required to present a yearly plan (called “resilience plans”) describing the interventions aimed to improve network resilience. To this purpose, they need new methodologies and tools to assess the network resilience and to quantify the benefits of countermeasures. This paper proposes the application of a risk-based framework and tool to assess the impacts of extreme weather events in T&D grids, which anticipate critical network situations in presence of incumbent weather threats. To do this, the forecasting of weather events is combined with the component vulnerability models in order to predict which components are more prone to fail. Based on this set of components, the set of most risky contingencies is identified and their impacts on the distribution network in terms of unsupplied load are quantified. The major advantage of the applied methodology is its generality: in fact, it is applicable to both distribution and transmission systems as well as integrated transmission and distribution (T&D) systems, considering the peculiarities of each type of grid, in terms of operation, maintenance and component vulnerabilities. In particular, the application refers to a distribution network connected to a portion of high voltage transmission system in a mountainous zone, with focus on two major threats in the area, i.e., wet snow and fall of trees induced by combined wind and snow. The methodology also quantifies the benefits brought to the system resilience by countermeasures such as reconductoring, optimal reconfiguration or new right-of-way maintenance procedures. Simulations demonstrate the ability of the methodology to support T&D operators in an operational planning context in case of different incumbent threats.

Data-Driven Modeling of Evacuation Decision-Making in Extreme Weather Events

2022 ◽  
pp. 681-692
Author(s):  
Matthew Hancock ◽  
Nafisa Halim ◽  
Chris J. Kuhlman ◽  
Achla Marathe ◽  
Pallab Mozumder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Data Driven Modeling

Supporting Long-Term Decision Making in Plant Production in Serbia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić ◽  
Ana Vuković Vimić ◽  
Marija Ćosić ◽  
Zorica Ranković-Vasić ◽  
Vladimir Djurdjević ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Plant Production ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Seasonal Weather

<p>Agriculture is exposed to numerous risks related to climate change. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, heat waves, intensive rainfall and floods, as well as slow changes (increased temperatures, changes in precipitation regime and generally increased climate variability) affect the year-to-year stability of quality and quantity of the plant production.</p><p>Serbia is located in one of the regions that are recognized as hot spots where climate change unfolds faster than the global average. A survey completed by more than 100 agricultural producers in Serbia showed that in the last 20 years they were affected by mostly negative impact of climate change and suffered reduced quality and/or quantity of yields, mostly from droughts, high summer temperatures, spring frosts and storms with strong winds and hail.</p><p>Adaptation measures applied to reduce the risks of extreme weather events are mainly those subsidized by the Government (anti-hail nets, irrigation systems, etc.), recommended by the Agriculture Advisory Service or other independent expert (tillage methods, sowing time, time and water amount used for irrigation, use of fertilizers, etc.), as well as those learn from their own past experience (selection of varieties, crop rotation).</p><p>Most respondents regularly follow short-term weather forecasts from various sources and plan field activities accordingly. They are mainly familiar with the monthly forecast issued by the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS), which is also published by several newspapers. This forecast is based on the statistical method of analogies and the producers believe that they cannot rely on it in long-term planning. In general, they lack confidence in the long-term weather forecasts, mainly due to the fact that over the past years Serbian media were overwhelmed with tendentious seasonal forecasts from unreliable sources.</p><p>On the other hand, the survey showed that many producers would appreciate and use the seasonal weather outlooks if it was tailored according to their specific needs considering species they cultivate and local climate characteristics. They would like clearly presented information, in simple graph or map form, followed by textual advices on agro-technical measures they could adopt in order to reduce foreseen weather-related risks.</p><p>Integrated Agro-meteorological Prediction System (IAPS) is a project financed by the Science Fund of the Republic of Serbia through the Program for excellent project of young researchers (PROMIS) that aims to reduce the risk of weather-related events and increase climate resilience of Serbian agriculture, as well as to advance the use of climate information by producers and agricultural advisers in long-term planning. The idea is to create a coupled system od dynamically downscaled seasonal weather forecasts and crop models, accompanied with a set of products specifically tailored to support long-term decision making in agriculture. At the end of the project, the developed system and its products will be offered to RHMSS to include in the operative forecast system.</p>

A Summary of the Recent Extreme Weather Events and Their Impacts on Electricity

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 821 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sinan Küfeoğlu ◽  
Samuel Prittinen ◽  
Matti Lehtonen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Reliability, Resilience and the Oncoming Wave of Retiring Baseload Units, Volume I: The Critical Role of Thermal Units During Extreme Weather Events

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter C. Balash, PhD ◽  
Kenneth C. Kern ◽  
John Brewer ◽  
Justin Adder ◽  
Christopher Nichols ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Role ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events
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