Összefoglaló. A WMO 2021 elején kiadott állapotértékelője szerint a
COVID–19 miatti korlátozások ellenére az üvegházhatású gázok légköri
koncentrációja tovább emelkedett. A tengerszint emelkedés a közelmúltban
gyorsult, rekordmagas volt a jégvesztés Grönlandon, az Antarktisz olvadása is
gyorsulni látszik. Szélsőséges időjárás pusztított, élelmiszer-ellátási gondok
léptek fel, és 2020-ban a COVID–19 hatásával együtt nőtt a biztonsági kockázat
több régióban is. Az éghajlatváltozás felerősíti a meglévő kockázatokat, és
újabb kockázatok is fellépnek majd a természeti és az ember által alkotott
rendszerekben.
Az éghajlatváltozás hatása a hazai mérési sorokban is megjelenik. Az Országos
Meteorológiai Szolgálat (OMSZ) homogenizált, ellenőrzött mérései szerint 1901
óta 1,2 °C-ot nőtt az évi középhőmérséklet. Két normál időszakot vizsgálva
egyértelmű a magasabb hőmérsékletek felé tolódás, a csapadék éven belüli
eloszlása megváltozott, az őszi másodmaximum eltűnőben van. Nőtt az
aszályhajlam, gyakoribbá váltak a hőhullámok, intenzívebb a csapadékhullás,
emiatt az éghajlatvédelemi intézkedések mellett a jól megalapozott alkalmazkodás
is indokolt. A biztonsági kockázatok csökkenthetők az OMSZ és Országos
Katasztrófavédelmi Főigazgatóság közötti együttműködés által.
Summary. The first part of the article gives an overview of the
state of the global climate in 2020 based on the report compiled by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2021) and network of partners from UN.
According to this report, the 2020 was one of the three warmest years on record,
despite a cooling La Niña event. The global mean temperature for 2020 (January
to October) was 1.2 ± 0.1 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, used as an
approximation of pre-industrial levels. The latest six years have been the
warmest on record. 2011-2020 was the warmest decade on record. The report on the
“State of the Global Climate 2020” illustrates the state of the key indicators
of the climate system, including greenhouse gas concentrations, increasing land
and ocean temperatures, sea level rise, melting ice and glacier and extreme
weather. It also highlights impacts on socio-economic development, migration and
displacement and food security. All key climate indicators and associated impact
information published in this report highlight continuing climate change, an
increasing occurrence and intensification of extreme events, and severe losses
and damage, affecting people, societies and economies. Extreme weather events
triggered an estimated 10 000 000 displacements in 2020. Because of COVID-19
lockdowns, response and recovery operations were leading to delays in providing
assistance. After decades of decline, the increase in food insecurity since 2014
is being driven by conflict and economic slowdown as well as climate variability
and extreme weather events. Climate change will amplify existing risks and
create new risks for natural and human systems. Risks are unevenly distributed
and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in countries
at all levels of development.
The global changes have local effects in Hungary as it is shown in the second
part of the article. The climate monitoring at the Hungarian Meteorological
Service is based on measurements stored in the Climate data archive. We apply
data management tools to produce high quality and representative datasets to
prepare climate studies. The data homogenization makes possible to eliminate
inhomogeneities due to change in the measuring practice and station movements.
Applying spatial interpolation procedure for meteorological data provide the
spatial representativeness of the climate data used for monitoring. The surface
temperature increase is slightly higher in Hungary than the global change from
1901. The annual precipitation decreased by 3% from 1901, although this change
is not significant statistically. The monthly temperatures shifted to warmer
monthly averages in the most recent normal period between 1991 and 2020
comparing to the 1961–1990 in each months. The annual course of the monthly
precipitations changed, especially autumn. The monthly sum in September and in
October increased substantially. The frequency of heatwave days increased by
more than two weeks in the Little Plain and in the southern part of the Great
Hungarian Plain from 1981, which is the most intense warming period globally.
The intensification of the precipitation in the recent years is obvious in our
region. The cooperation of the Disaster Risk Management and the Hungarian
Meteorological Service could expand the adaptive capacity of the society to
climate change.
Uncertain Seasons in the El Niño Continent: Local and Global Views
