Decision-making framework methodology: risk assessment in strategic management

Author(s):  
Severine Sperandio ◽  
Philippe Girard
Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quansen Wang ◽  
Jianzhong Zhou ◽  
Kangdi Huang ◽  
Ling Dai ◽  
Gang Zha ◽  
...  

The risk inevitably exists in the process of flood control operation and decision-making of reservoir group, due to the hydrologic and hydraulic uncertain factors. In this study different stochastic simulation methods were applied to simulate these uncertainties in multi-reservoir flood control operation, and the risk caused by different uncertainties was evaluated from the mean value, extreme value and discrete degree of reservoir occupied storage capacity under uncertain conditions. In order to solve the conflict between risk assessment indexes and evaluate the comprehensive risk of different reservoirs in flood control operation schemes, the subjective weight and objective weight were used to construct the comprehensive risk assessment index, and the improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method was used to select the optimal flood control operation scheme. The proposed method was applied to the flood control operation system in the mainstream and its tributaries of upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, and 14 cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. The results indicate that proposed method can evaluate the risk of multi-reservoir flood control operation from all perspectives and provide a new method for multi-criteria decision-making of reservoir flood control operation, and it breaks the limitation of the traditional risk analysis method which only evaluated by risk rate and cannot evaluate the risk of the multi-reservoir flood control operation system.


2021 ◽  
Vol 242 ◽  
pp. 112544
Author(s):  
Nicola Caterino ◽  
Iolanda Nuzzo ◽  
Antonio Ianniello ◽  
Giorgio Varchetta ◽  
Edoardo Cosenza

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 6620
Author(s):  
Arman Alahyari ◽  
David Pozo ◽  
Meisam Farrokhifar

With the recent advent of technology within the smart grid, many conventional concepts of power systems have undergone drastic changes. Owing to technological developments, even small customers can monitor their energy consumption and schedule household applications with the utilization of smart meters and mobile devices. In this paper, we address the power set-point tracking problem for an aggregator that participates in a real-time ancillary program. Fast communication of data and control signal is possible, and the end-user side can exploit the provided signals through demand response programs benefiting both customers and the power grid. However, the existing optimization approaches rely on heavy computation and future parameter predictions, making them ineffective regarding real-time decision-making. As an alternative to the fixed control rules and offline optimization models, we propose the use of an online optimization decision-making framework for the power set-point tracking problem. For the introduced decision-making framework, two types of online algorithms are investigated with and without projections. The former is based on the standard online gradient descent (OGD) algorithm, while the latter is based on the Online Frank–Wolfe (OFW) algorithm. The results demonstrated that both algorithms could achieve sub-linear regret where the OGD approach reached approximately 2.4-times lower average losses. However, the OFW-based demand response algorithm performed up to twenty-nine percent faster when the number of loads increased for each round of optimization.


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