Are the non-agricultural commodities markets efficient: an ARDL model approach

Author(s):  
Vaishali Jain
2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (No. 10) ◽  
pp. 441-448 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arendas Peter

The financial markets are impacted by various seasonal anomalies. One of the best known of them is the Halloween effect. The Halloween effect means that the summer period (May–October) asset returns are lower compared to the winter period (November–April) asset returns. In the paper, price series of 20 major agricultural commodities over the 1980–2015-time period are tested for the presence of the Halloween effect. The data show that 15 out of the 20 commodities recorded a higher average winter period than summer period returns and in 10 cases, the differences are statistically significant. The data also show that out of the 5 commodities with higher summer period returns, only in the case of poultry the differences are statistically significant.  


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5408
Author(s):  
Faheem Ur Rehman ◽  
Ejaz Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
József Popp ◽  
Judit Oláh

Whether better infrastructure influences Chinese export sophistication (ES) and diversification (ED) is an important question, which surprisingly remains unaddressed. The current study contributes to the ES and ED literature by capturing the symmetric and asymmetric effect of infrastructure on ES and ED. We employ a robust dynamically simulated autoregressive distributed lag (DYS-ARDL) dynamic method, which is an extended version of NARDL and ARDL. The major aim of this new DYS-ARDL dynamic approach was to abolish the issue in orthodox ARDL model approach while examining the long-run and short-run. The new dynamic DYS-ARDL model is accomplished in estimating, stimulating, and robotically plotting predictions of counterfactual alterations in one explanatory variable and its impact on the dependent variable while holding the remaining regressors constant. Furthermore, this new method of DYS-ARDL model can estimate, stimulate, and plot to forecast graphs of positive and negative variations in the variables robotically as well as their short and long-run associations. Interestingly, the results of this study witness the presence of long-run relationship between infrastructure and ES and ED in China. The present study shows that better infrastructure will be more beneficial for Chinese ED and ES.


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