Integration of Monte Carlo simulation and chi-square automatic interaction detector algorithm for modelling and estimation of conventional power plant construction volumes

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Ali Azadeh ◽  
Monireh Jalili ◽  
Mohammad Abdollahi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Plant Construction ◽  
Conventional Power Plant ◽  
Automatic Interaction Detector

Mathematical Modeling for Contingency Determination for Nuclear Power Plant Construction Projects

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhao ◽  
Shenjun Xu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Plant Construction ◽  
Lump Sum

This paper uses the China AP1000 project as an example to exhibit the application of quantitative risk management in nuclear power plant construction projects. For those lump sum contracts, one of the most significant purposes of quantitative risk management is to determine the contingency, i.e. the reserved money and time for projects. This paper studies the application of Monte Carlo simulation in determining the contingency, taking into account the distinctive features of nuclear power projects. Most nuclear power projects, especially advanced ones such as Generation III and above, meet one common obstacle in estimating key economic indicators — the absence of historical data due to its avant-garde design. As cost estimators of the coal power plant contractors may collect their data from thousands of previous cases, nuclear power plant contractors, especially in many developing countries, do not have a shared database of financial data. Some first-of-a-kind nuclear power plants have absolutely no historical data to look up. This paper aims to provide a resolution to this problem. First, the feasibility and representativeness of different probability distributions are compared based on their respective skewness and kurtosis to determine the best-suited distribution in nuclear power projects. This paper also analyzes the use of second-order Monte Carlo simulation in reducing the error caused by the biased estimation of inexperienced risk assessment engineers.

scholarly journals Functional outcome and complications following surgery for Dupuytren’s disease: a multi-centre cross-sectional study

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. N. Rodrigues ◽  
W. Zhang ◽  
B. E. Scammell ◽  
I. Chakrabarti ◽  
P. G. Russell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Functional Outcome ◽  
Dupuytren’S Disease ◽  
Complication Rates ◽  
Loss Of Function ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Dupuytren's Disease ◽  
Chi Square Test

Variables associated with recurrent Dupuytren’s disease, or a ‘diathesis’, have been investigated, but those associated with functional outcome and complications are less well studied. Outcomes 1 or 5 years after an aponeurotomy, fasciectomy or dermofasciectomy were assessed by patient interview and examination at five UK centres. A total of 432 procedures were studied. The reoperation rate did not differ at 1 year ( p = 0.396, Chi-square test with Monte Carlo simulation), but was higher after aponeurotomy in the 5-year group (30%, versus 6% after fasciectomy and 0% after dermofasciectomy, p = 0.003, Chi square test with Monte Carlo simulation). Loss of function (DASH>15) did not differ between procedures at 5 years, even when reoperation and other variables were controlled. Diabetes, female gender and previous ipsilateral surgery were associated with poorer function in logistic regression analysis. The variables associated with poor function after treatments differ from diathesis variables. Aponeurotomy had lower complication rates than fasciectomy and dermofasciectomy. This may counterbalance the former’s higher recurrence rate and explain why aponeurotomy demonstrated similar long-term functional outcome compared with excisional surgery in this study. Level of evidence: III

SIMULATION OF THE RESPONSE OF A LaBr3(Ce) DETECTOR IN AN ATMOSPHERE CONTAMINATED WITH RADIONUCLIDES AFTER A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENT

2019 ◽  
Vol 186 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 346-350
Author(s):  
Tomáš Urban ◽  
Petr Vágner
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power Plant ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Scintillation Detectors ◽  
Scintillation Crystal ◽  
Probe Response

Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the possibility of using detectors based on LaBr3(Ce) scintillation crystal as part of gamma spectrometry systems for field use and possibly as part of a monitoring network around nuclear power plants, i.e. whether LaBr3(Ce) detectors can follow the classical scintillation detectors based on NaI (Tl). For this purpose, the Monte Carlo simulation of the IPROL-1 probe response was performed in the simplified geometry of the radionuclides-contaminated atmosphere. A study shows that a LaBr3(Ce)-based probe is usable for this purpose and results are at least comparable to those with a conventional NaI (Tl)-based probe.

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