Long-Term Interest Rates: The Role of Expected Budget Deficits

1988 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 341-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lloyd B. Thomas ◽  
Ali Abderrezak
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Deficit Reduction ◽  
Alternative Measures

A relatively simple loanable funds model is utilized to explain the 10-year government bond yield during 1970–86. In the reduced form equation, expected inflation, expected structural deficits as a percentage of GNP, output growth, and liquidity growth appear as exogenous variables. Using alternative measures of expected inflation and expected deficits, the regression results indicate a powerful effect of expected deficits on the 10-year government bond yield. The increase in expected deficits raised bond yields by some 180 basis points by early 1984, and the anticipation of deficit-reduction legislation accounts for about one-third of the decline in yields during 1985–86, according to the model. In alternative experiments, tests are conducted to see whether bond yields “Granger-cause” forthcoming deficits. Our findings are consistent with the view that agents are forward-looking and foresee the direction of major changes in structural deficits.

scholarly journals Does High Yield Spread Dampen Economic Growth?

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 01-09
Author(s):  
Yutaka Kurihara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yield

This article focuses on the empirical relationship between the United States’ and Japan’s yield spread of interest rates and economic growth in Japan. The yield spread is defined in this article as the difference between the Japanese government bond yield minus the US government bond yield. Some studies have tackled this issue and found a negative relationship between the yield spread and economic growth; however, recent studies have shown no or a weak relationship. This problem has not yet reached consensus in spite of its importance. As the Japanese interest rate has been quite low since the adoption of the zero interest rate policy at the end of 1990s, the situation may change the results. The empirical results show that reliability of yield spread as a leading indicator of output growth exists in Japan; however, term structure of interest rate is not related to output growth.

scholarly journals Does High Yield Spread Dampen Economic Growth? The Case of US-Japan

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yutaka Kurihara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yield

<p><em>This article focuses on the empirical relationship between the United States’ and Japan’s yield spread of interest rates and economic growth in Japan. The yield spread is defined in this article as the difference between the Japanese government bond yield minus the US government bond yield. Some studies have tackled this issue and found a negative relationship between the yield spread and economic growth; however, recent studies have shown no or a weak relationship. This problem has not yet reached consensus in spite of its importance. As the Japanese interest rate has been quite low since the adoption of the zero interest rate policy at the end of 1990s, the situation may change the results. The empirical results show that reliability of yield spread as a leading indicator of output growth exists in Japan; however, term structure of interest rate is not related to output growth.</em><em></em></p>

Country-specific euro area government bond yield reactions to ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 417-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Fendel ◽  
Frederik Neugebauer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Current Spread ◽  
Policy Program ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Country Specific

AbstractThis paper employs event study methods to evaluate the effects of ECB’s non-standard monetary policy program announcements on 10-year government bond yields of 11 euro area member states. Measurable effects of announcements arise with a one-day delay meaning that government bond markets take some time to react to ECB announcements. The country-specific extent of yield reduction seems inversely related to the solvency rating of the corresponding countries. The spread between core and periphery countries reduces because of a stronger decrease in the latter. This result is confirmed by letting the announcement variable interact with the current spread level.

scholarly journals The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 168-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanweer Akram ◽  
Anupam Das
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Key Driver ◽  
The Government

This paper investigates the long-term determinants of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds (IGBs). It examines whether John Maynard Keynes’ supposition that the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield holds over the long run, after controlling for key economic factors. It also appraises if the government fiscal variable has an adverse effect on government bond yields over the long run. The models estimated in this paper show that in India the short-term interest rate is the key driver of the long-term government bond yield over the long run. However, the government debt ratio does not have any discernible adverse effect on IGB yields over the long run. These findings will help policy makers to (i) use information on the current trend of the short-term interest rate and other key macro variables to form their long-term outlook about IGB yields, and (ii) understand the policy implications of the government's fiscal stance.

scholarly journals Government debt-interest rate nexus in G7 countries over a long horizon

2016 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 603-625
Author(s):  
Lena Malesevic-Perovic
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
G7 Countries ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
Output Gaps

The goal of this paper is to investigate the influence of government fiscal positions on long-term interest rates in G7 countries during the period 1948-2012. Our results suggest that a one percentage point increase in the stock of government debt in GDP is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 2.27-6.28 basis points, while an increase in government deficit in GDP of one percentage point is associated with an increase in government bond yields of 3.15-14.3 basis points. In addition, our results indicate that under reasonable assumptions and in the presence of widening output gaps, the neoclassical growth model predicts a rather low degree of crowding-out (around 36 percent), while the narrowing of the output gap leads to a complete crowding-out.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting the Yield of Indonesia Government Bonds 10 Years

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 243-248
Author(s):  
Intan Permanasari ◽  
Augustina Kurniasih
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
The Us ◽  
Regression Approach ◽  
Study Population

The purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of inflation, interest rates, the rupiah exchange rate, and the US 10-Year Treasury on the Indonesian Government Bond Yield. The study population was all yield tenors of the benchmark series Government bonds for the period 2017 to 2019. This study is an associative causality study. The research sample is Indonesian government bonds with a tenor of 10 years. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression approach. The results show that inflation and US 10-Year Treasury have no effect on the Indonesian Government Bond Yield. Interest rates and the rupiah exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the Indonesian Government Bond Yield.

The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Investment in the US and UK: An SVAR Approach

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Russell
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
The Us ◽  
Historical Relationship ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England implemented asset purchase programs to provide further liquidity to faltering markets, and to continue to place downward pressure on market interest rates. Later called Quantitative Easing, the higher asset prices and lower market yields induced by the purchases were expected to translate into lower market borrowing costs and increased investment. This project focused on estimating the effect of Quantitative Easing on real investment in the US and UK up to 2010. First, the historical relationship between bond yields and investment was estimated using a time series econometric model called a structural vector autoregression. Next, using the historical relationship between bond yields and investment, the impact of the asset purchases on investment was calculated using the bond yield changes induced by  Quantitative Easing announcements. Deviations in bond yields on Quantitative Easing announcement dates suggested an impact on investment of 5.93% in the US, and an impact of 3.37% in the UK. Moreover, both the US and UK econometric results are statistically significant. Taking into account the econometric assumptions required to estimate the impact of Quantitative Easing on investment, the results in this project should be viewed with caution. However, the results will be useful in framing future thought on Quantitative Easing as a tool to provide macroeconomic stability 

Why 3 and 60 per cent? The rationale of the reference values for fiscal deficits and debt in the European Economic and Monetary Union

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-126
Author(s):  
Jan Priewe
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Reference Values ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Fiscal Compact

The origins of the reference values for budget deficits and public debt (3 and 60 per cent of GDP) in the euro area are explored. Both numbers came into the Maastricht Treaty by coincidence. Later attempts to legitimise them are traced and found unconvincing. In particular the debt cap is scrutinised, often considered as a precondition for debt sustainability. Since the first overhaul of the Stability and Growth Pact in 2005, reference values for structural deficits became the focus of fiscal policy, but derived from the 60 per cent debt cap. With the so-called Fiscal Compact from 2012, caps for structural deficits were added to the semi-primary law of the European Union. It is argued that the reference values for deficits and debt are not consistent. If the Domar equation is observed, the changing relationship between interest rates on public debt and output growth should be included in the fiscal policy framework. Therefore ‘eternal’ reference values for deficits and debt should be removed from the primary law by Treaty amendments.

scholarly journals PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, INFLASI, DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO, DAN UKURAN PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP YIELD OBLIGASI PADA PERUSAHAAN YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA TAHUN 2010 - 2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-32
Author(s):  
Laras Nurul Listiawati ◽  
V. Santi Paramita
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Equity Ratio ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to determine the effect of interest rates, inflation, debt to equity ratio and firm size on bond yields at companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Previous research shows different results. Therefore, it is necessary to do a research to re-examine the influence of these four variables on bond yield. The population in this study are all corporate bonds listed and traded on Indonesia Stock Exchange in period of 2010 to 2016, amounting to 584 bonds. Based on purposive sampling criteria 88 bonds were sampled. The research hypothesis was tested using multiple regression. This study concludes that interest rate has a positive effect on bond yield, debt to equity ratio negatively affect bond yield, while inflation and firm size have no effect on bond yield.

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