scholarly journals A time delay dynamical model for outbreak of 2019-nCoV and the parameter identification

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Chen ◽  
Jin Cheng ◽  
Yu Jiang ◽  
Keji Liu
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Typical Feature ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Isolation Rate ◽  
High Isolation ◽  
The Government ◽  
System With Time Delay ◽  
Official Data

AbstractIn this paper, we propose a novel dynamical system with time delay to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China. One typical feature of this epidemic is that it can spread in the latent period, which can therefore be described by time delay process in the differential equations. The accumulated numbers of classified populations are employed as variables, which is consistent with the official data and facilitates the parameter identification. The numerical methods for the prediction of the outbreak of 2019-nCoV and parameter identification are provided, and the numerical results show that the novel dynamic system can well predict the outbreak trend so far. Based on the numerical simulations, we suggest that the transmission of individuals should be greatly controlled with high isolation rate by the government.

TWO-SCROLL ATTRACTOR IN A DELAY DYNAMICAL SYSTEM

2007 ◽  
Vol 17 (10) ◽  
pp. 3455-3460 ◽  
Author(s):  
ARŪNAS TAMAŠEVIČIUS ◽  
TATJANA PYRAGIENĖ ◽  
MANTAS MEŠKAUSKAS
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Nonlinear Function ◽  
Delay System ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Type Function ◽  
Delay Dynamical System ◽  
Glass Type ◽  
Electronic Oscillator

Nonvanishing 𐑍-shaped nonlinear function has been introduced in delay dynamical system instead of commonly used Mackey–Glass type function. Depending on time delay the system exhibits not only mono-scroll, but also more complex two-scroll hyperchaotic attractors. Delay system with the novel nonlinear function can be implemented as an analogue electronic oscillator.

Study on Dynamical System with Time-delay

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 441-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amit Mondal ◽  
Nurul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
System With Time Delay

scholarly journals Modeling and Bifurcation Research of a Worm Propagation Dynamical System with Time Delay

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Yu Yao ◽  
Zhao Zhang ◽  
Wenlong Xiang ◽  
Wei Yang ◽  
Fuxiang Gao
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
Time Delay ◽  
Theoretical Analysis ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Detection System ◽  
Positive Equilibrium ◽  
Worm Propagation ◽  
Local Hopf Bifurcation ◽  
System With Time Delay

Both vaccination and quarantine strategy are adopted to control the Internet worm propagation. By considering the interaction infection between computers and external removable devices, a worm propagation dynamical system with time delay under quarantine strategy is constructed based on anomaly intrusion detection system (IDS). By regarding the time delay caused by time window of anomaly IDS as the bifurcation parameter, local asymptotic stability at the positive equilibrium and local Hopf bifurcation are discussed. Through theoretical analysis, a thresholdτ0is derived. When time delay is less thanτ0, the worm propagation is stable and easy to predict; otherwise, Hopf bifurcation occurs so that the system is out of control and the containment strategy does not work effectively. Numerical analysis and discrete-time simulation experiments are given to illustrate the correctness of theoretical analysis.

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