Improvement in Steady-State Accuracy of Time-Delayed Control Systems with Communication Disturbance Observer by Low-Frequency Model Error Feedback

Abstract An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictive skill and model error in imperfect climate models for long-range forecasting. Here, of key importance is a climate equilibrium consistency test for detecting false predictive skill, as well as an analogous criterion describing model error during relaxation to equilibrium. Climate equilibrium consistency enforces the requirement that long-range forecasting models should reproduce the climatology of prediction observables with high fidelity. If a model meets both climate consistency and the analogous criterion describing model error during relaxation to equilibrium, then relative entropy can be used as an unbiased superensemble measure of the model’s skill in long-range coarse-grained forecasts. As an application, the authors investigate the error in modeling regime transitions in a 1.5-layer ocean model as a Markov process and identify models that are strongly persistent but their predictive skill is false. The general techniques developed here are also useful for estimating predictive skill with model error for Markov models of low-frequency atmospheric regimes.

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Prediction of Petrophysical Properties from Seismic Inversion and Neural Network: A case study

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11824 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Siddharth Garia ◽

Arnab Kumar Pal ◽

Karangat Ravi ◽

Archana M Nair

Keyword(s):

Neural Network ◽

Bulk Density ◽

Low Frequency ◽

Seismic Inversion ◽

Well Log ◽

Petrophysical Properties ◽

Seismic Section ◽

Frequency Model ◽

Seismic Reflection Data ◽

Reflection Data

Seismic inversion method is widely used to characterize reservoirs and detect zones of interest, i.e., hydrocarbon-bearing zone in the subsurface by transforming seismic reflection data into quantitative subsurface rock properties. The primary aim of seismic inversion is to transform the 3D seismic section/cube into an acoustic impedance (AI) cube. The integration of this elastic attribute, i.e., AI cube with well log data, can thereafter help to establish correlations between AI and different petrophysical properties. The seismic inversion algorithm interpolates and spatially populates data/parameters of wells to the entire seismic section/cube based on the well log information. The case study presented here uses machine learning-neural network based algorithm to extract the different petrophysical properties such as porosity and bulk density from the seismic data of the Upper Assam basin, India. We analyzed three different stratigraphic&#160; units that are established to be producing zones in this basin.&#160;AI model is generated from the seismic reflection data with the help of colored inversion operator. Subsequently, low-frequency model is generated from the impedance data extracted from the well log information. To compensate for the band limited nature of the seismic data, this low-frequency model is added to the existing acoustic model. Thereafter, a feed-forward neural network (NN) is trained with AI as input and porosity/bulk density as target, validated with NN generated porosity/bulk density with actual porosity/bulk density from well log data. The trained network is thus tested over the entire region of interest to populate these petrophysical properties.Three seismic zones were identified from the seismic section ranging from 681 to 1333 ms, 1528 to 1575 ms and 1771 to 1814 ms. The range of AI, porosity and bulk density were observed to be 1738 to 6000 (g/cc) * (m/s), 26 to 38% and 1.95 to 2.46 g/cc respectively. Studies conducted by researchers in the same basin yielded porosity results in the range of 10-36%. The changes in acoustic impedance, porosity and bulk density may be attributed to the changes in lithology. NN method was prioritized over other traditional statistical methods due to its ability to model any arbitrary dependency (non-linear relationships between input and target values) and also overfitting can be avoided. Hence, the workflow presented here provides an estimation of reservoir properties and is considered useful in predicting petrophysical properties for reservoir characterization, thus helping to estimate reservoir productivity.

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