The Risks in Agriculture, Farmers' Responses and Support Solutions in Nghe An

This study focuses on analyzing the risks that affect in agricultural production and response of farmers. Research data was collected in Nghe An, Vietnam with 200 samples, audited by Binary Logistic Model. The research results show that the main risks affecting agriculture in Nghe An are mainly weather risks, pest risks and economic risks. And to cope with those risks, farmers have chosen a number of response measures, based on the support of the government, that have yielded clear results. The study provides empirical evidence on the current situation of risk identification and how to choose to respond to risks in agriculture, offering solutions to help improve the agricultural risk management framework in Nghe An, Vietnam.

Build, measure, understand: Pupils contributing to meteorological measurement campaigns.

<p>Voluntary weather measurements have a long tradition and the opportunities have recently expanded with that the advent of the Internet of Things. Atmospheric measurements are prototypical examples for the maker community and popular means to strengthen interest in STEM subjects. In two projects in Germany  (in Brandenburg, within the FESSTVaL (Field Experiment on submesoscale spatio-temporal variability in Lindenberg) measurement campaign initiated by the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research, and in Bavaria, in the KARE-Citizen Science  project), we use a weather station to be assembled by pupils as a participatory vehicle to increase interest in and understanding of weather and climate, as well as of weather forecasting, and to generate high resolution data for research.</p><p>The devices measure e.g. temperature, humidity, radiation, pressure and precipitation in the students' immediate environment. They can be placed in almost any location, since they operate independent of W-LAN and external power supply. The data is visualized directly via a web app. Students report weather impacts, such as observed damage or their own exposure to weather. Due to the pandemic, only a few dozens pupils were able to participate and building their devices had to be done with digital guidance and video support. Further online materials on understanding weather forecasting and its uncertainty were provided.</p><p>Understanding of weather risks was surveyed before and after participation to detect any changes. Students were asked questions about thunderstorm, rain and heat events and climatic changes since 1880. The results show a good understanding of weather risks compared to a population of all ages representative study. In online workshops pupils together with the scientists scetched and discussed the influence of the placement of their stations on their measurements. Interesting meteorological phenomena were discovered in the dataset, e.g. a cold pool that can form during a thunderstorm and trigger new ones. Thus, our network of higher spatial and temporal resolution data collected by the pupils has the potential to study these small-scale phenomena in more detail than with professional networks of about 25 km spacing.</p>

Applications of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) in Winter Precipitation-Type Forecasts

Temperature and humidity profiles in the lowest 3 km of the atmosphere provide crucial information in determining the precipitation type, which aids forecasters in relaying winter-weather risks. In response to the challenges associated with forecasting mixed-phase environments, this study employs uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) to explore the efficacy of high-resolution temporal and vertical measurements in winter-weather environments. On 19 February 2019, boundary layer measurements of an Oklahoma winter storm were collected by a UAV and radiosondes. UAV observations show a pronounced surface-based subfreezing layer that corresponds to observed ice pellets at the surface. This is in contrast to the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model analyses, which show a subfreezing layer near the surface that is 3°C warmer than both the UAV and radiosonde observations. Using a spectral-bin-microphysics algorithm designed to provide hydrometeor-phase diagnosis throughout the vertical column, it was found that UAV measurements can improve discrimination between hydrometer types in environments near 0°C. A numerical-modeling study of the same winter-weather event illustrates the potential benefit of vertically sampling a mixed-phase environment at multiple mesonet sites and highlights future scientific and operational questions to be addressed by the UAV community.

The Conditionality of Outdoor Sports Events on Weather-Induced Impacts and Possible Solution

All over the globe, outdoor sports events are highly affected by weather conditions that frequently influence the comfort of the players and sports fans, the duration, or even the cancelation of the event. To verify the range of weather-induced impacts on selected Major League Baseball events, this interdisciplinary study investigated the causes of unexpected postponements of several Major League Baseball games in March and April 2018, according to official weather reports in the event host destinations. The impact was measured by a recurrent neural network with long short-term memory as an investigation model. Autocorrelation analysis was conducted between all input and target fields. The research focused on the explanation of the influence of weather risks on the event host destinations. Moreover, the study is based on projecting an effective instrument for managing weather risks and then evaluating the tourism services that the future climatic conditions will support. The long short-term memory analysis revealed that solar activity had the greatest influence on the temperature. On the other hand, humidity and air pressure depended very little on solar activity; this finding was confirmed by the zero values of the sensitivity. These values encourage further research on weather disturbances and their connections with outdoor sports and tourism activities.

Climate Finance Shadow Report 2020: Assessing progress towards the $100 billion commitment

International climate finance is vital to global cooperation on climate change. As many developing countries reel from the effects of coronavirus, the prospect of climate-induced extreme weather risks compounding crises and poverty. Climate change could undo decades of progress in development and dramatically increase global inequalities. There is an urgent need for climate finance to help countries cope and adapt. Over a decade ago, developed countries committed to mobilize $100bn per year by 2020 to support developing countries to adapt and reduce their emissions. The goal is a critical part of the Paris Agreement. As 2020 draws to a close, Oxfam’s Climate Finance Shadow Report 2020 offers an assessment of progress towards the $100bn goal. The third in a series, this report looks at the latest donor figures for 2017–18, with a strong focus on public finance. It considers how climate finance is being counted and spent; where it is going; how close we are to the $100bn goal; and what lessons need to be learned for climate finance post-2020.

Do We Know Our Own Tornado Season? A Psychological Investigation of Perceived Tornado Likelihood in the Southeast United States

Reducing fatalities from tornadoes in the southeastern United States requires considering multiple societal factors, including the risk perceptions that influence how people interpret tornado forecasts and warnings and make protective decisions. This study investigates perceptions of tornado risk in the southeastern United States, operationalized as judgments of tornado likelihood. While it is possible that residents of the Southeast could learn about tornado likelihood in their region from observing the local environment, cognitive-ecological theory from psychology suggests that such judgments of likelihood can be inaccurate, even if other aspects of local knowledge are accurate. This study analyzes data from a survey that elicited different groups’ judgments of tornado likelihood associated with different seasons, times of day, and storm system types. Results are presented from a representative sample of Southeastern residents and are compared with a sample of tornado experts (who have extensive knowledge about the likelihood of Southeastern tornadoes) and a representative sample of Great Plains residents. Overall, the analysis finds that many members of the Southeastern public deviate from the expert sample on tornado likelihood, especially for winter and overnight tornadoes. These deviations from expert opinion mimic the judgments of the Great Plains public. This study demonstrates how psychological theory and a decision science approach can be used to identify potential gaps in public knowledge about hazardous weather risks, and it reveals several such potential gaps. Further research is needed to understand the reasons for deviations between public and expert judgments, evaluate their effects on protective decision-making, and develop strategies to address them.

Recommendations for Developing Useful and Usable Convection-Allowing Model Ensemble Information for NWS Forecasters

U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters assess and communicate hazardous weather risks, including the likelihood of a threat and its impacts. Convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles offer potential to aid forecasting by depicting atmospheric outcomes, including associated uncertainties, at the refined space and time scales at which hazardous weather often occurs. Little is known, however, about what CAM ensemble information is needed to inform forecasting decisions. To address this knowledge gap, participant observations and semistructured interviews were conducted with NWS forecasters from national centers and local weather forecast offices. Data were collected about forecasters’ roles and their forecasting processes, uses of model guidance and verification information, interpretations of prototype CAM ensemble products, and needs for information from CAM ensembles. Results revealed forecasters’ needs for specific types of CAM ensemble guidance, including a product that combines deterministic and probabilistic output from the ensemble as well as a product that provides map-based guidance about timing of hazardous weather threats. Forecasters also expressed a general need for guidance to help them provide impact-based decision support services. Finally, forecasters conveyed needs for objective model verification information to augment their subjective assessments and for training about using CAM ensemble guidance for operational forecasting. The research was conducted as part of an interdisciplinary research effort that integrated elicitation of forecasters’ CAM ensemble needs with model development efforts, with the aim of illustrating a robust approach for creating information for forecasters that is truly useful and usable.

Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change

As climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.

Accounting for current and expected weather risks in crop production based on mathematical game theory

Тенденции климатически обусловленных изменений – потепление, аридизация земель, деградация криолитозоны и т.п. могут быть учтены при стратегическом планировании АЛСЗ – адаптивно-ландшафтных систем земледелия (климат – одна из важнейших характеристик агроландшафтов). Однако наибольшую опасность представляют погодные риски, связанные с повышением нервозности климата. В настоящей работе нами рассматривается метод учета погодных рисков, где (внешне парадоксально) собственно метеопрогнозирование объявляется вторичным (а в условиях полной неопределенности по прогнозам – даже необязательным!). Описываемый метод компенсации рисков можно отнести к тактическим. В рамках математической теории игр, как условные игроки рассматриваются А (агроном) и П (природа/погода). Придерживаясь рассчитанной оптимальной стратегии, А минимизирует потери урожая при любых «капризах» П. Засевая 25% по технологии для влажного года (Х1), а 75% - по технологии для засушливого года (Х2), агроном гарантированно имеет цену игры 0,85 (условно-чистый доход), тогда как придерживаясь какой-либо только одной стратегии он гарантированно получит лишь 0,7 (для Х1) или 0,8 (для Х2). Оптимальным агрономическим решением будет применение на трети площадей технологии для засухи, а на двух третях – технологии для влажного года с осадками в неблагоприятный период. Полученные решения не носят характер универсальных региональных рекомендаций, но позволяют успешно оптимизировать агрономические решения в масштабах хозяйства. Для небольших (фермерских) хозяйств метод будет менее востребован. Однако крупные хозяйства (агрохолдинги) крайне заинтересованы в получении именно гарантированного уровня дохода, и организовать одновременное применение двух технологий на их достаточно развитой базе вполне возможно. Trends of climate-related changes – warming, aridization of land, degradation of the cryolithozone, etc. can be taken into account in the strategic planning of adaptive landscape systems of agriculture (climate is one of the most important characteristics of agricultural landscapes). However, the greatest danger is posed by weather risks associated with increased climate nervousness. In this paper, we consider a method for accounting for weather risks, where (seemingly paradoxical) the actual forecast is declared secondary (and even optional in conditions of complete uncertainty according to forecasts!). The described method of risk compensation can be classified as tactical. Within the framework of mathematical game theory, A (agronomist) and P (nature/weather) are considered as conditional players. Adhering to the calculated optimal strategy A minimize crop losses in any «whims» of the P. Sowing 25% of the technology for the wet year (X1) and 75% - technology for dry years (X2), the agronomist has guaranteed the price of the game 0,85 (conditionally net income), while any only one strategy guaranteed to get only 0.7 (for X1) or 0.8 (for X2). The optimal agronomic solution will be to use technology for drought in one third of the area, and technology for a wet year with precipitation in an unfavorable period in two thirds. The obtained solutions do not have the character of universal regional recommendations, but they allow us to successfully optimize agronomic solutions on a farm scale. For small farms, this method will be less popular. However, large farms (agricultural holdings) are extremely interested in obtaining a guaranteed level of income, and it is quite possible to organize the simultaneous use of two technologies on their sufficiently developed base.