scholarly journals Problems in Developing a Comprehensive Toolkit for Macro-economic, Inter-regional, Inter-sectoral Analysis and Forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1072-1086
Author(s):  
Valery A. Kryukov ◽  
Alexandr O. Baranov ◽  
Victor N. Pavlov ◽  
Victor I. Suslov ◽  
Nikita I. Suslov
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic System ◽  
System Development ◽  
Complex Model ◽  
Level System ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Calculation System ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

The study reviews approaches to macro-economic and macro-territorial modelling presented in international and Russian economic publications. We focus on opportunities to improve forecasting the development of economic system in Russia at the macro-economic, inter-sectoral and inter-regional levels. We described dynamic macro-economic, inter-sectoral and inter- regional models developed in the Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IEIE SB RAS). We analyse more in details three complex models proposed in IEIE SB RAS: CAISI (comprehensive analysis of inter-sectoral information), SRNES (synthesis of regional and national economic systems) and CSNES (coordination of sectoral and national economic solutions). We consider theoretical foundations of the complex models and their application in analysing and forecasting economic system development at various levels. The three complex models are based on different basic models that influence their development. IEIE SB RAS has been developing a two-level system of forecasting models, which combines advantages of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and dynamic input-output models applied in the CAISI system. The paper describes theoretical foundations of the SRNES system, whose latest versions are premised on the general equilibrium and cooperative games theories. Then, we characterised the most developed elements of the complex model CSNES, which has the CSNES-TEK subsystem used in forecasting developments in the fuel and energy industry of Russia’s territories and SIBARP (balance calculation system for the future). The conclusion outlines directions for further research on improving the methods of macro-economic, inter-regional, and inter-sectoral forecasting based on harmonisation of analytical and forecast calculations performed using the CAISI, SRNES and CSNES systems. The results of forecast calculations using the two-level system of macro-level models can be applied in the complex models SRNES and CSNES to ensure coordination between the forecasts of socio-economic development of the Asian part of Russia and projected dynamics of macro-indicators.

scholarly journals TRANSFORMATION OF THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM: THEORETICAL FUNDAMENTALS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yurii Kharabovskyi
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
System Development ◽  
Qualitative Change ◽  
Visual Presentation ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Control And Management ◽  
Internal And External Factors ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Open economic systems are influenced by a significant number of factors, which by their nature can be both external and internal. The influence of factors causes changes in the system, which is determined by the content of the concept of “transformation”. The concept of “transformation” has long roots of application and today can be considered interdisciplinary. For our country, the transformation is largely due to the changes in the national economy that have taken place over the past three decades. The performed generalization proves that the transformation is characteristic of every open economic system, and its course requires control and management. The aim of the study was to consider the theoretical foundations of the transformation of the economic system with the definition of security aspects as a condition for the existence and development of such a system. To determine the theoretical foundations of the transformation of the economic system used methods: induction and deduction, comparison and systematization – in the study of the essential characteristics of the term “transformation”; synthesis and analysis – to determine the theoretical foundations of the transformation of any system; morphological analysis – to clarify the security aspects of the transformation of the economic system; graphic – for visual presentation of theoretical and methodical material; abstract-logical – for theoretical generalizations and conclusions of the study. It is revealed that the transformation formed at the intersection of scientific approaches is characteristic of the existence and development of any systems. The process of transformation itself involves a change in its composition, i.e. the disappearance of existing and the emergence of new components, changes in the properties of individual components, forms of functioning, creates a basis for the transition to another state. The following main parameters are defined as the theoretical basis for the transformation of any system: a radical change of interests, priorities and values; occurs at all hierarchical levels and applies to all elements of the system; qualitative change of the system, in particular its components, parameters, structure and connections; general form of system development; system transformations are caused by internal and external factors; multistage process of change; the process of transforming one system into another; carried out consistently and continuously. The defined theoretical bases allow, taking into account possible changes in the system at the moments of its loss of stability, to predict the further course of events with the formation of the program of transition to the next level of development. Emphasis is placed on the security aspects of the transformation, which allows both to stabilize the situation and to form a basis for development despite the influence of internal and external factors.

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward P. Herbst ◽  
Frank Schorfheide
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Computational Techniques ◽  
Dsge Models ◽  
Monte Carlo Techniques ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Theoretical Foundations

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. The book is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.

KONSTITUSI EKONOMI SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-74
Author(s):  
Syaugi Syaugi
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Legal System ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Life ◽  
Legal Concept ◽  
Economic Law ◽  
National Economic ◽  
Economic Ideology

    As a constitution, the Indonesian Constitution of 1945 regulates how the national economic system should be arranged and developed. In the perspective of constitution, the implementation of sharia economy does not mean the state directs a particular economic ideology. Philosophically, the ideals of Indonesian economic law is to initiate and prepare the legal concept of economic life. Shariah economy has a strong foundation both formally shariah and formallyconstitution. Formally shariah means the existence of shariah economy has a strong foundation in Indonesian legal system. Formally constitution means, in the context of the state, Shariah economy has a constitutional basis. The existence of laws relating to shariah economy shows that the Indonesian economic system givesa place to the shariah economy.

Interactive effects between monetary policy and fiscal policy based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Ying Xie
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

From the beginning to the end, monetary policy has focused too much on the control of the supply side. At present, the single supply-based monetary policy is ineffective. Therefore, it is urgent to change the current single direct supply-side regulation and control policy and replace it with a non-single and indirect control policy that combines supply and demand. Based on machine learning algorithms, this paper constructs a monetary policy analysis model based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium methods to analyze the interactive effects of monetary policy and other policies. Moreover, this paper uses the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to simulate and analyze the economic effects of fiscal policy. In addition, this paper compares the economic effects of monetary policy and other policies and conducts verification and analysis through actual data. The obtained results show that the model constructed in this paper achieves the expected effect.

ON THE OPTIMAL CONTROL OF NATIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM

1978 ◽  
Vol 30 (1-2-3) ◽  
pp. 117-128
Author(s):  
K. L. Teo ◽  
L. T. Yeo
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Economic System ◽  
National Economic
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