Projection of Impaired Life Expectancy for Individuals in the United Kingdom Using Estimated Excess Death Rates

Author(s):  
David Bowen Jones ◽  
Nicole R. Gray ◽  
Madeleine Reid ◽  
William F. Scott

We have recently constructed tables of the estimated life expectancies of impaired lives on the basis of mortality ratios and the cohort life expectancy tables given in the 8th edition of the Ogden Tables, which are derived from the ONS 2018-based population projections for the United Kingdom.1,2 The life expectancy of impaired lives may also be estimated using excess death rates. In this paper, we give tables of life expectancies for impaired lives using a range of excess death rates for males and females from age 0 to age 100. As both mortality ratios and excess death rates are widely used in medical and legal settings, it is hoped that these additional tables of life expectancies will be of practical value.

Author(s):  
David Bowen Jones ◽  
Nicole R. Gray ◽  
Madeleine Reid ◽  
William F. Scott

Projections of life expectancy are widely used in medicine, actuarial practice, and in the medicolegal and insurance fields. For individuals considered to have average future survival, nationally-derived life expectancy tables are available, referred to as the Ogden Tables. In the United Kingdom, updated tables (the 8th edition) were published in July 2020. We have calculated impaired projected life expectancies for the United Kingdom based on age and gender, derived from the 8th edition of the Ogden Tables together with various assumed lifelong mortality ratios.


2005 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANK TROVATO ◽  
NILS B. HEYEN

Over the course of the 20th century the sex differential in life expectancy at birth in the industrialized countries has widened considerably in favour of women. Starting in the early 1970s, the beginning of a reversal in the long-term pattern of this differential has been noted in some high-income countries. This study documents a sustained pattern of narrowing of this measure into the later part of the 1990s for six of the populations that comprise the G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, England and Wales (as representative of the United Kingdom) and USA. For Japan, a persistence of widening sex differences in survival is noted. The sex differences in life expectancy are decomposed over roughly three decades (early 1970s to late 1990s) from the point of view of four major cause-of-death categories: circulatory diseases, cancers, accidents/violence/suicide, and ‘other’ (residual) causes. In the six countries where the sex gap has narrowed, this has resulted primarily from reduced sex differences in circulatory disease mortality, and secondarily from reduced differences in male and female death rates due to accidents, violence and suicide combined. In some of the countries sex differentials in cancer mortality have been converging lately, and this has also contributed to a narrowing of the difference in life expectancy. In Japan, males have been less successful in reducing their survival disadvantage in relation to Japanese women with regard to circulatory disease and cancer; and in the case of accidents/violence/suicide, male death rates increased during the 1990s. These trends explain the divergent pattern of the sex difference in life expectation in Japan as compared with the other G7 nations.


1998 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Strong ◽  
Phil Trickett ◽  
Kuldeep Bhatia

Analysis of mortality, hospital separations and self-reported health indicators by country of birth group has confirmed that overseas-born populations are generally in better health than their Australian-born contemporaries. The better health of the overseas-born may be reflected in both the willingness and eligibility of individuals to emigrate. Overseas-born individuals were placed into one of the four groups according to place of birth. These included the United Kingdom and Ireland, Other Europe, Asia and other. All population groups reported lower mortality and hospitalisation rates for all causes of disease combined. The Asian-born population had the lowest mortality rates with 38% less mortality for males and 30% less for females. Hospitalisation rates were also lower for the Asian-born, with males and females having 46% and 37% fewer hospital separations compared to the Australian-born population. However, diabetes mortality was greater for males and females from Other Europe, Asia and other regions. Both males and females from the United Kingdom and Ireland group showed increased mortality from lung cancer. Mortality and hospitalisation for cervical cancer was also significantly higher for Asian-born and other females. The mortality and hospitalisation data corresponded well with self-reported prevalence of health-related risk factors. For example, self reported diabetes prevalence was higher for the Other Europe, Asia and Other groups. Asian and Other females reported significantly less use of regular Pap smear tests, reflecting their increased mortality and hospitalisation for cervical cancer. These results support the finding of past studies that the health of migrants is generally better than that of the Australian-born population and reflects a 'healthy migrant' effect.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. A463-A463
Author(s):  
Aurimas Kudzinskas ◽  
Andrew Alazawi ◽  
Will Hughes ◽  
Richard Goodall ◽  
Eleanor Harbinson ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is a prevalent condition with significant morbidity and financial implications. This study aims to compare the temporal trends in T1DM mortality and morbidity across 27 European Union (EU) countries and the United Kingdom between 1990 and 2017. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease Study database was used to extract T1DM age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life-years rates (DALYs) per 100,000 for 27 EU countries and the United Kingdom. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to interpret trends. Results: All countries, excluding males from the Czech Republic (+28.5%), had relative reductions in ASMR between 1990 and 2017. The largest relative reductions in ASMR between 1990 and 2017 were observed in Slovenia for both males and females (-75.9% and -87.9%, respectively). The smallest relative reductions in ASMR between 1990 and 2017 were seen in Malta for males (-5.9%) and Czech Republic for females (-12.5%). For all years from 1999 to 2017, males in all countries had higher T1DM ASMRs compared to females. Similarly, T1DM DALYs have decreased across all countries excluding males from the Czech Republic and Malta (+10.4% and +5.3%, respectively). The largest relative reductions in DALYs between 1990 and 2017 were observed in Poland for both males and females (-46.4% and -70.4%, respectively). The smallest relative reductions in DALYs were seen in Greece for both males and females (-4.1% and -17.0%, respectively). From all years from 2006 to 2017, males in all countries had higher T1DM DALYs compared to females. Joinpoint regression analysis demonstrated that over the time period covered by the most recent trends (2013/14–2017), small increases in T1DM ASMRs were observed in Malta, Germany, and Denmark, for males, and in the UK, Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark for females. Furthermore, the UK also observed increases in DALY rates for both males and females between 2013 and 2017 (estimated annual percentage increases: males +0.6%, females +0.5%). Discussion: We identified improvements in both the mortality and morbidity from T1DM in European Union Countries between 1990 and 2017. Both the incidence and prevalence of T1DM is known to be increasing, therefore the observed improvements in mortality and morbidity reflect continent wide improvements in disease management. Our data do suggest, however, that the improvements in mortality and DALYs appear to be plateauing in the UK over the time periods covered by the most recent trends.


Author(s):  
Karin Modig ◽  
Marcus Ebeling

Objectives: Mortality from Covid-19 is monitored in detail both within as well as between countries with different strategies against the virus. However, death counts and relative risks based on crude numbers can be misleading. Instead, age specific death rates should be used for comparability. Given the difficulty of ascertainment of Covid-19 specific deaths, excess all-cause mortality is currently more appropriate for comparisons. By estimating age- and sex-specific death rates we aim to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to Covid-19, as well as the difference between men and women in Sweden. Design: We make use of Swedish register data about total weekly deaths, total population at risk, and estimate age- and sex-specific weekly death rates for 2020 and the 5 previous years. The data is provided by Statistics Sweden. Results: From the first week of April and onwards, the death rates at all ages above 60 are higher than those in previous years in Sweden. Persons above age 80 are dis-proportionally more affected, and men suffer higher levels of excess mortality than women at all ages with 75% higher death rates for males and 50% higher for females. Current excess mortality corresponds to a decline in remaining life expectancy of 3 years for men and 2 years for women. Conclusion: The Covid-19 pandemic has so far had a clear and consistent effect on total mortality in Sweden, with male death rates being comparably more affected. What consequences the pandemic will eventually have on mortality and life expectancy will depend on the progression of the pandemic, the extent that some of the deaths would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic, only somewhat later, the consequences for other health conditions, as well as the health care sector at large.


1987 ◽  
Vol 5 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 79-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Wynn

Inequalities in nutrition are associated with inequalities in health. Many surveys, mainly American, show that there are large variations between individuals in the quality and quantity of food consumed. Variations depend upon up-bringing, education, income and availability of food. In the United Kingdom there is a steep social-class gradient in age-specific death-rates for heart disease and other diseases including cancer. Of all the many possible nutritional factors the strongest inverse correlates with death-rates within the United Kingdom and in other developed countries are the consumption of fresh vegetables and fruit. Among the individual nutrients a low consumption of vitamin A, or its precursor carotene is associated with an increased cancer risk. Whole milk is a major source of vitamin A and carotene in the British diet and is also reported to be protective against osteoporosis and some forms of hypertension including preeclampsia. School meals can set a pattern of life-long eating habits.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. e0230674
Author(s):  
Alex Dregan ◽  
Ann McNeill ◽  
Fiona Gaughran ◽  
Peter B. Jones ◽  
Anna Bazley ◽  
...  

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