The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it?

1994 ◽  
Vol 84 (6) ◽  
pp. 1940-1959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven G. Wesnousky
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Characteristic Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Model ◽  
Earthquake Distribution ◽  
Fault Trace ◽  
Major Strike

Abstract Paleoearthquake and fault slip-rate data are combined with the CIT-USGS catalog for the period 1944 to 1992 to examine the shape of the magnitude-frequency distribution along the major strike-slip faults of southern California. The resulting distributions for the Newport-Inglewood, Elsinore, Garlock, and San Andreas faults are in accord with the characteristic earthquake model of fault behavior. The distribution observed along the San Jacinto fault satisfies the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. If attention is limited to segments of the San Jacinto that are marked by the rupture zones of large historical earthquakes or distinct steps in fault trace, the observed distribution along each segment is consistent with the characteristic earthquake model. The Gutenberg-Richter distribution observed for the entirety of the San Jacinto may reflect the sum of seismicity along a number of distinct fault segments, each of which displays a characteristic earthquake distribution. The limited period of instrumental recording is insufficient to disprove the hypothesis that all faults will display a Gutenberg-Richter distribution when averaged over the course of a complete earthquake cycle. But, given that (1) the last 5 decades of seismicity are the best indicators of the expected level of small to moderate-size earthquakes in the next 50 years, and (2) it is generally about this period of time that is of interest in seismic hazard and engineering analysis, the answer to the question posed in the title of the article, at least when concerned with practical implementation of seismic hazard analysis at sites along these major faults, appears to be the “characteristic earthquake distribution.”

scholarly journals Implications of paleoseismology in seismic hazard analysis in NW Crete and Kythira strait (Greece)

2001 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 1465 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. ANDREOU ◽  
V. MOUSLOPOULOU ◽  
I. FOUNTOULIS ◽  
Κ. ATAKAN
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Characteristic Earthquake ◽  
Attenuation Relationship ◽  
Area Source ◽  
Geological Information ◽  
Earthquake Model

The scope of this paper is to study how geological data contribute to hazard analysis and the extent to which they can be incorporated in the existing hazard models. For this reason the study area was divided into area source zones and the paleoseismological data collected and studied on the Kera fault zone, in Chania, Crete, were taken into account. The seismic hazard was calculated with CRISIS99, using a combination of the Poissonian and the characteristic earthquake model. The data from the Kera fault affect slightly the calculation of seismic hazard. It is suggested that more paleoseismological data and a good attenuation relationship for the area, would lead to the development of hazard models capable to incorporate geological information and it would improve the quality of seismic hazard analysis.

Forecasting Probabilistic Seismic Shaking for Greater Tokyo from 400 Years of Intensity Observations

2007 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 525-546 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serkan B. Bozkurt ◽  
Ross S. Stein ◽  
Shinji Toda
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Site Effects ◽  
Seismic Behavior ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Assessment

The long recorded history of earthquakes in Japan affords an opportunity to forecast seismic shaking exclusively from past shaking. We calculate the time-averaged (Poisson) probability of severe shaking by using more than 10,000 intensity observations recorded since AD 1600 in a 350 km-wide box centered on Tokyo. Unlike other hazard-assessment methods, source and site effects are included without modeling, and we do not need to know the size or location of any earthquake nor the location and slip rate of any fault. The two key assumptions are that the slope of the observed frequency-intensity relation at every site is the same, and that the 400-year record is long enough to encompass the full range of seismic behavior. Tests we conduct here suggest that both assumptions are sound. The resulting 30-year probability of IJMA≥6 shaking (∼ PGA≥0.4 g or MMI≥ IX) is 30%–40% in Tokyo, Kawasaki, and Yokohama, and 10%–15% in Chiba and Tsukuba. This result means that there is a 30% chance that 4 million people will be subjected to IJMA≥6 shaking during an average 30-year period. We also produce exceedance maps of PGA for building-code regulations, and calculate short-term hazard associated with a hypothetical catastrophe bond. Our results resemble an independent assessment developed from conventional seismic hazard analysis for greater Tokyo.

scholarly journals Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-206
Author(s):  
Sunita Ghimire
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Uniform Density ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Recurrence Relationship ◽  
Rectangular Area ◽  
Seismic Hazard Curve

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Nepal has been carried out considering uniform density model. A detailed earthquake catalogue since 1255 A.D, within the rectangular area has been developed and historical earthquakes are plotted in the map of Nepal. Five hundred twenty eight numbers of areal sources are used within the study area to characterize the seismic sources. The completeness of the data has been checked by using Stepp's procedure. Seismicity in four regions of study area has been evaluated by defining 'a' and 'b' parameters of Gutenberg Richter recurrence relationship. Seismic hazard curve of Nepal for soft subsoil condition for 10% probability of exceedence in 50 years period i.e. for return period of 475 years has been plotted.

PEMETAAN DAERAH RENTAN GEMPA BUMI SEBAGAI DASAR PERENCANAAN TATA RUANG DAN WILAYAH DI PROVINSI SULAWESI BARAT

KURVATEK ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 41-47
Author(s):  
Marinda noor Eva
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Penelitian mengenai daerah rawan gempa bumi ini menggunakan Metode Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat, dengan tujuan untuk memetakan tingkat kerawanan bahaya gempa bumi di Kabupaten Mamasa. Penelitian ini menggunakan data kejadian gempa bumi di Pulau Sulawesi dan sekitarnya dari tahun 1900 – 2015. Hasil pengolahan PSHA menggunakan Software Ez-Frisk 7.52 yang menghasilkan nilai hazard di batuan dasar pada kondisi PGA (T = 0,0 sekon), dengan periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun berkisar antara (149,54 – 439,45) gal dan (287,18 – 762,81) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 0,2 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun adalah (307,04 – 1010,90) gal dan (569,48 – 1849,78) gal. Nilai hazard di batuan dasar dengan kondisi spektra T = 1,0 sekon untuk periode ulang 500 tahun dan 2500 tahun diperoleh nilai (118,01 – 265,75) gal dan (223,74 – 510,92) gal. Berdasarkan analisis PSHA, nilai PGA di Provinsi Sulawesi Barat dominan dipengaruhi oleh sumber gempa sesar.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

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