The Freedom of Constraint: A Multilevel Simulation Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zining Yang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Simulation Model

Dynamic Simulation Research on the Economic and Environmental Impact of Beijing’s Reclaimed Water Utilization

2015 ◽  
Vol 737 ◽  
pp. 945-949
Author(s):  
Xu Li ◽  
Jing Hua Sha ◽  
Jing Jing Yan ◽  
Guo Feng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Objective Function ◽  
Dynamic Simulation ◽  
Reclaimed Water ◽  
Simulation Research ◽  
Water Utilization ◽  
Pollutant Reduction ◽  
Water Pollutant

A dynamic comprehensive simulation model is constructed to evaluate the economic and environmental impact of reclaimed water utilization. One objective function and three sub-model is consisted the simulation model. Lingo software is used to solve this model. The simulation result shows that the utilization of reclaimed water is a feasible approach to the achievement of the water pollutant reduction and economic development.

scholarly journals Short-Term Forecast of Ukrainian Economy Including Shadow Sector Using Causal Simulation Model

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-145
Author(s):  
Yuriy Vasylenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Negative Balance

A new causal simulation model of economic development was created, which comprehensively in detail and fully reflects various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations.The model is used to forecast the whole (legal and shadow) country’s economy up to 2022.The dynamics of shadow and legal indicators are different.The biggest and most important difference is about exports and imports. Official statistics give a negative balance of the Ukrainian foreign trade of Ukraine in 2019-22. However, total export, determined by the model, considerably exceeds imports, so actually we expect a surplus.This is very important for the National Bank: its policy based on the official (legal) negative balance of Ukraine foreign trade should be one (throw foreign currency reserves into the market or to devalue the hryvnia), but with the actual balance that includes shadow flows and is positive, - contrary one (to buy currency on the market or to revalue the national currency).Our model calculates how the production volumes of all types of goods and services should change to ensure that supply and demand are balanced. These numbers can serve a reference for manufacturers.We suggested that the relevant Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of Ukraine: measuring actual rates of changes in the production of these types of goods during the year, they provide recommendations to producers to increase or decrease their production.

scholarly journals Approach to form the territorial system development strategy using simulation and scenario modeling tools

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 426-442
Author(s):  
M. M. Nizamutdinov ◽  
V. V. Oreshnikov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Territorial Development ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
General Terms ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Territorial Systems

The studies were carried out in the problematic of improving the tools for implementing economic policy which ensure widespread use of strategic planning and regulation methods in real practice of managing the territorial systems development at various levels. The article highlights the most pressing problems of improving the efficiency of socio-economic development planning for territorial systems, including in the context of the modern digital economy development. The need for implementation analytical processing systems and the management information effective use to substantiate strategic decisions is indicated as the priority problem. The comparative assessment of the well-known methodologies, methods and ready-made software solutions in modeling the economy of territorial socio-economic system at the different levels is carried out. Their strengths and weaknesses are identified for solving the identified problems and priority tasks of territorial development. The basic principles and requirements are formulated for the territorial socio-economic system’s development predicting tools. The conceptual scheme for implementing the simulation model is proposed. In general terms, the scheme provides the adaptation of the SAM methodology to formalize economic agents’ expenses and incomes balance. At the same time it involves the use of econometric methods, fuzzy logic theory and soft computing algorithms. The statement of the simulation problem is considered, the structure and the block’s relations logic for the simulation model are described. It is proposed to formalize the basic parameters connections of the model in two groups: in the first group the system relations of the model parameters are identified and formalized by SAM methodology; in the second group the factor relations are identified and formalized using econometric methods. Some results of forecasting calculations are given as part of the substantiation of the strategy for socio-economic development of the of Ufa city for the period until 2030.

scholarly journals The modified smart city concept for Russian municipalities in the context of change management

R-Economy ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 292-298
Author(s):  
Olga O. Komarevtseva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Smart City ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
Use Of Data ◽  
Effective Use ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model ◽  
Municipal Economy

Relevance. Outdated tools and instruments for development and governance prevent the effective use of data and digital platforms in Russian cities, thus creating obstacles for the implementation of smart new solutions. Moreover, the established system of smart city evaluation is 'overloaded' with indicators. For these reasons, the smart city concept is inadequate for today's reality of most Russian municipalities, making it difficult for them to meet the national goals for the digitalization of the country's economy. The relevance of this study is determined by the need to adjust the smart city concept for municipal economy in Russia and to propose a modified version of this concept. Research objective. This study aims at creating a modified smart city concept by changing evaluation criteria and using a simulation model of municipal economy. Results. The study found that the established smart city concept is not entirely suitable for implementation in Russian municipalities. The lack of adequate methodology of smart city evaluation impedes efficient economic development of municipalities. Data and methods. The study applies a simulation model of municipal economy, which is built by using simulation modelling methods and the Bass diffusion model. Conclusions. The proposed modifications of the smart city concept can provide a springboard for economic development of Russian municipalities to achieve the goals of national digital strategies.

scholarly journals The causal model for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Yuriy V. Vasylenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Keynesian Theory ◽  
Intermediate Consumption ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Multivariant Analysis

A long-term causal simulation model (macro from micro) for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development was developed. The adequacy of the model increased by modelling not only the final products but also intermediate consumption. Shadow economy was included. The model intentionally omits all the hypotheses (monetarists’, Keynesian, theory of equilibrium) which strictly predetermine economy behaviour. The model makes it possible to analyze the influence of prices, under- or overproduction, bank loans on each product, the rates of taxes etc. on the development of all economy and of each manufacturer. Furthermore, this model can help in developing recommendations for the National Bank, government, each manufacturer, importer and exporter. This model has been developed for the Ukrainian economy whose peculiarities were duly accounted for. However, the model can be easily adjusted to study any other country’s economy.

scholarly journals Policy strategies for economic development in Cuba: A simulation model analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (6) ◽  
pp. 769-788
Author(s):  
Fulvio Castellacci ◽  
Kanar Dizyee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
Policy Strategies
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