scholarly journals Short-Term Forecast of Ukrainian Economy Including Shadow Sector Using Causal Simulation Model

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-145
Author(s):  
Yuriy Vasylenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Negative Balance

A new causal simulation model of economic development was created, which comprehensively in detail and fully reflects various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations.The model is used to forecast the whole (legal and shadow) country’s economy up to 2022.The dynamics of shadow and legal indicators are different.The biggest and most important difference is about exports and imports. Official statistics give a negative balance of the Ukrainian foreign trade of Ukraine in 2019-22. However, total export, determined by the model, considerably exceeds imports, so actually we expect a surplus.This is very important for the National Bank: its policy based on the official (legal) negative balance of Ukraine foreign trade should be one (throw foreign currency reserves into the market or to devalue the hryvnia), but with the actual balance that includes shadow flows and is positive, - contrary one (to buy currency on the market or to revalue the national currency).Our model calculates how the production volumes of all types of goods and services should change to ensure that supply and demand are balanced. These numbers can serve a reference for manufacturers.We suggested that the relevant Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of Ukraine: measuring actual rates of changes in the production of these types of goods during the year, they provide recommendations to producers to increase or decrease their production.

scholarly journals Digitalization of Trade as a Factor of Development of Export Potential of the Republic of Belarus

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-13
Author(s):  
N. V. Yurova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
National Strategy ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Geographical Structure ◽  
Theoretical Approaches ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Republic

The purpose of the article is to show how the digitalization of trade can lead to the development of the export potential of the Republic of Belarus. The article discloses theoretical approaches to digitalization of trade as a combination of traditional and new digital models of interaction between buyer and seller. The author presents the volume, commodity and geographical structure of foreign trade of the Republic of Belarus, lists the priorities and identifies the main prospects for the development of exports using modern digital platforms and the emergence of new digital goods and services. The advantages of paperless trade and the need to implement the main provisions of National Strategy for Sustainable Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Belarus are indicated. The author proposes the ways of development of the export potential of the Republic of Belarus witch based on an analysis of the processes of digital transformation of Belarusian trade.

scholarly journals Pandemi COVID-19: Dampak Kesehatan, Ekonomi, & Sosial

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-34
Author(s):  
Nurul Aeni
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Small Enterprises ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Poor Families ◽  
Positive Growth ◽  
Micro And Small Enterprises ◽  
The Impact

ENGLISHCOVID-19 Pandemic started from March 2020 affected many aspects. This research aims to describe the impacts of pandemic on health, economic, and social in Pati District. It used both qualitative and quantitative approaches. It used secondary data that were obtained from relevant services and references. Then, the data were analyzed descriptively. This research resulted: (1) the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on health can be seen through the number of positive COVID-19 cases, mortality, and reduction in health service coverage. Higher positive COVID-19 cases were found in around the center of government and economic activities; (2) COVID-19 Pandemic has disturbed supply and demand of goods and services. This situation affected the decrease of economic growth. Pati’s economic structure is sustained by agriculture and manufactured that still showed positive growth. Thus, the economic slowdown caused the increase of unemployment, particularly on micro and small enterprises or household industries; (3) the impact of pandemic COVID-19 was represented by the poverty increase. Higher number of poor families was found in the areas having near-poor families and vulnerable ones. INDONESIAPandemi COVID-19 yang terjadi sejak bulan Maret 2020 memengaruhi segala aspek kehidupan. Tujuan penelitian adalah mendeskripsikan dampak pandemi dalam aspek kesehatan, ekonomi, dan kesehatan di Kabupaten Pati. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dan kuantitatif secara bersama. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari instansi maupun referensi yang relevan. Selanjutnya data tersebut diolah secara kualitatif dan kuantitatif. Hasil penelitian adalah (1) Dampak pandemi COVID-19 pada aspek kesehatan adalah jumlah kasus positif dan kematian yang cukup tinggi serta penurunan cakupan sebagian besar layanan kesehatan; kasus positif COVID-19 cukup tinggi terjadi di wilayah yang merupakan pusat pemerintahan atau dekat dengan pusat ekonomi; (2) Pandemi COVID-19 menyebabkan perubahan penawaran dan permintaan barang dan jasa. Kondisi tersebut berdampak terhadap penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Struktur perekonomian Kabupaten Pati ditopang oleh sektor usaha pertanian dan industri pengolahan yang masih menunjukkan pertumbuhan positif selama pandemi. Perlambatan ekonomi tersebut selanjutnya menyebabkan peningkatan pengangguran, terutama pada sektor usaha mikro dan kecil serta industri rumah tangga; (3) Dampak sosial pandemi COVID-19 di Kabupaten Pati terwakili oleh peningkatan kemiskinan, dimana peningkatan kemiskinan lebih tinggi terjadi di wilayah yang yang memiliki jumlah keluarga hampir dan rentan miskin tinggi.

Business Activity and Economic Growth: An Economic and Statistical Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 66-78
Author(s):  
A. A. Frenkel ◽  
B. I. Tikhomirov ◽  
Y. V. Sergienko ◽  
A. A. Surkov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Activity Index ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Accurate Determination ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Impact

This publication reflects the results of the author’s research on improving the domestic statistical and methodological tools used in the analysis and forecasting of the Russian economy. In this regard, the main features of the formation and application of the Business Activity Index for basic spheres of the economy of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (hereinafter, the index of business activity) are shown and substantiations of its individual advantages are given in comparison with the index of output of goods and services for the basic types of economic activities of Rosstat (hereinafter, the release of goods and services). The authors provide evidence that despite a number of positive qualities of the applied methodology for constructing the index of output of goods and services, the business activity index, according to the authors of the article, provides a more objective assessment of macroeconomic dynamics, since it includes additional indicators reflecting financial and social aspects of economic development. It is proved that the main advantages of the business activity index are manifested in a more accurate determination of the depth of crisis phenomena in socio-economic development, as well as in determining the timing of the onset and overcoming of these negative processes. The characteristics of the macroeconomic indicators that make up the business activity index are given. Methods for calculating the weights of indicators characterizing the level of business activity in various spheres of the national economy, as well as methods for determining changes in this level are considered. Changes in the dynamics of these weights are analyzed. Ways of more efficient use of business activity indices in the practice of accounting, forecasting and management of socio-economic development are proposed. The conclusion is substantiated that it is advisable to use the business activity index for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and strategic planning, which will make it possible to more accurately assess the impact of the implementation of national projects and the social package of the message of the President of the Russian Federation on economic growth and increase the efficiency of using business activity tools in the practice of public administration of social economic development of the country.

Nigeria forex restrictions are unsustainable

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Special Drawing ◽  
Special Drawing Rights ◽  
The Cost

Significance Instead it ordered that all foreign exchange purchases should occur through commercial banks. This move aims to stabilise the value of the naira by reducing effective domestic demand for foreign currency. Impacts The CBN may allow commercial banks to provide forex to retail dealers as an alternative policy. The cost of imported goods and services will increase. A USD3.35bn IMF special drawing rights (SDR) allocation will bolster Nigeria’s short-term reserve position. Full exchange rate unification will not occur under President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration.

RESEARCH OF REALIA OF BANK LENDING TO ECONOMIC ENTITIES

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nataliya Sainchuk ◽  
◽  
Nataliya Marusyak ◽  
Bohdan Haruk ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Systemic Problems ◽  
Negative Balance ◽  
Solvency Ratio

It has been determined in the article that the development of the market economy in combination with internal problems and external challenges creates certain conditions for bank lending, which are characterized by instability and slow pace. This, in turn, has a negative impact on the economy in general and on the business sector in particular. In the process of studying this issue, both on the part of the banking segment and on the part of enterprises, there have been discovered systemic problems that are parallel — the imbalances of the banking segment are negatively correlated with enterprises in terms of lending. It has been analyzed that the number of banks decreased during the study period. This is evidence that banks with a significant solvency ratio remain in the financial market. This situation signifies that the banking sector is evolving in line with legislation, which, although variable, is quite "rigid" in nature. Whereas this reflects the fact that the banking sector should lend to businesses. In the context of the study, the phenomenon of declining lending to businesses and identifying factors that have a significant impact on receiving loans by enterprises: inflation, the discount rate of the National Bank of Ukraine, and the "price" of new loans. It has been substantiated that the state of bank lending to economic entities today is unsatisfactory. This is due to the fall of the industrial production index, and the negative balance of export-import operations. Certain priority sectors of the national economy also have a negative trend. During the analyzed period, they tend to decline. In addition to the factors that have an impact on these indicators, it has been emphasized that the greatest impact on the state of corporate lending has the instability of the economy. This factor has a negative impact on bank lending, which in turn correlates with the economic stability of enterprises. Therefore, the article has concluded that banks do not provide loans because companies have a negative credit history, and it is because the banking sector issues expensive loans (sometimes in foreign currency and for the short term), and this results in non-repayment of loans.

scholarly journals Role of CPEC in Development of Trade, Transport and Economy of Pakistan

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashfaq U. Rehman ◽  
Azizul Hakim ◽  
Khalid Khan ◽  
Ihsan Ullah Khan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Chi Square Test ◽  
Time Distance ◽  
Test Result

Abstract The objectives of the study were to measure the efficiency in trade and transport through China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and to ascertain efficiency in trade and economic development through developed transport infrastructures. The present study was conducted in Peshawar, Pakistan. The data was collected from the relevant developing sectors and stakeholders through CPEC including investors of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chamber of Commerce and Peshawar Railway Station track employees. Majority of bi-variate analysis through chi-square test result showed that there was a strong and significant association between the project of CPEC and efficiency in trade and transport in terms of economy. Similarly, a strong and significant association was found between the development of transport routes through CPEC and smooth transportation of goods and services. Furthermore, a strong and significant association was found between CPEC project and improvement in travelling potential. Similarly, a significant association was found between development in transport infrastructure and fastness and reliability in business travelling. In the same way, a significant association was found between CPEC and increase in the geographical size of the labour market. As in the chain, a strong and significant association was found between the development of transport infrastructures through CPEC and increase in labour force productivity along with an increase in the range of choice of individual and firms. This could come true that CPEC as a project would ensure smooth efficiency transportation of trade goods and services in terms of reducing time distance and cost. CPEC as a project should not be only limited to economic activities, rather it should contribute to the overall socio-economic development of the region.

scholarly journals FOREIGN TRADE STRENGTH OF COUNTRIES UNDER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 45-56
Author(s):  
O. А. Chugaiev
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Pharmaceutical Products ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Closed Economies ◽  
Export Structure ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Transport Services

In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic became the major event affecting the global economy. Both supply- and demand-driven recession and changes in consumption and investment behaviour became a new reality. The purpose of the paper is to estimate foreign trade strength and vulnerability of countries under the shrinking global demand for specific groups of goods and services as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures to contain it. The proposed foreign trade strength index under pandemic is based on exports of pharmaceutical products, medical equipment, food, IT and audiovisual goods and services etc. (+); tourism and transport services, oil, ores and metals, transport vehicles and most other types of machinery etc. (-); and imports of medical and related products (-) in comparison to a country’s GDP. The ranking is provided for the largest 100 economies. 90% of the countries have absolute trade vulnerability under the pandemic. There are 3 types of economies with relatively better trade soundness: exporters of medical products and ICT services (Ireland and Switzerland), food exporters and closed economies. The most vulnerable economies include small island countries which depend on tourism services exports, oil exporting countries and exporters of machines and equipment. Ukraine ranks 38th and has a standardized value of the index +0.4 mainly because of its food exports which help offsets the weakness due to the metal exports. Vulnerability of large economies is caused by their merchandise export structure, while vulnerability of small economies is due to their services export structure. Key words: foreign trade, economic resilience, demand for goods and services, dependence on global markets, pandemic, quarantine measures.

scholarly journals Recent Developments in Economic Theory and their Application to Insurance

1963 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 322-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl Borch
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
General Theory ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Apparent Paradox ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Actuarial Mathematics ◽  
Recent Developments

The very title of this paper may cause some surprise, since economic theory so far has found virtually no application in insurance. Insurance is obviously an economic activity, and it is indeed strange that general economic theory should seem inapplicable to insurance.This apparent paradox may to some extent be explained by the historic development. Actuarial mathematics and the essential scientific basis of insurance were developed into a self-contained and fairly complete theory long before economists could claim the name of science for their subject. Actuaries and other insurance people may from time to time have turned to economic theory for help on their problems. In most cases they must have turned away in disappointment, being convinced that actuarial mathematics was well ahead of general economic theory.The last point is brought out clearly in a paper on the safety loading of insurance premiums which Tauber (19) presented at the Sixth International Congress of Actuaries in Vienna in 1909. In the introduction to this paper Tauber seems to consider risk bearing as a service and appears to assume that it like all other goods and services must have a price, determined by supply and demand in the market. Tauber did not develop this idea, apparently because the economic theory of his time was utterly unable to analyse the problem. That his approach was sound, and that the problem can be formulated and solved by modern economic theory, has been indicated in a previous paper (6).During the last thirty years there has been an extremely rapid development in economic theory. The “General Theory” of Keynes (12) which appeared in 1936, is usually considered to have caused a revolution in economic theory. However, this “revolution” has not lead to any developments which seem to have an immediate application in insurance. Post- and pre-Keynesian economics are equally powerless when confronted with the problem which Tauber tried to formulate. It is therefore premature to conclude from the title of this paper that economic theory has caught up with actuarial science, and that the theory of insurance has now become a part of a general theory comprising all economic activities.

The internationalization of the chinese rmb: road to the status of a world currency

2021 ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Dmitriy Kondratov
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Financial System ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
International Currency ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Status ◽  
Private Savings ◽  
The Stability

The economic successes achieved by the PRC in recent years naturally raised the question of the possibility of converting the national monetary unit (yuan) into an international currency, which would play a significant role in servicing the country's foreign trade and investment relations, and in the turnover of global currency and financial markets. An effective solution to this problem can provide China with a number of long-term geopolitical and economic advantages; in particular, it would significantly increase the competitiveness of the financial system and the inflow of foreign capital into it. The basic prerequisites for the internationalization of the yuan have already been established: in terms of GDP and exports of goods and services, the PRC is one of the leading countries in the world, with significant foreign exchange assets accumulated, that ensure the stability of the financial system. For the successful promotion of the national currency abroad, there are still some obstacles, in particular, the free convertibility of the yuan has not been introduced and the capacity of the financial market is insufficient, which reduces the interest of foreign investors in the yuan. The emergence of the Chinese national currency as a full-fledged international currency implies a significant increase in its role in foreign trade operations of the PRC, an increase in the use of yuan financial instruments for placement by non-residents of private savings and official reserves, a further increase in volumes and diversification of conversion operations with the yuan in the domestic and foreign currency markets.

scholarly journals The causal model for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 94 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-78
Author(s):  
Yuriy V. Vasylenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Causal Model ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Keynesian Theory ◽  
Intermediate Consumption ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Multivariant Analysis

A long-term causal simulation model (macro from micro) for the multivariant analysis and forecast of economic development was developed. The adequacy of the model increased by modelling not only the final products but also intermediate consumption. Shadow economy was included. The model intentionally omits all the hypotheses (monetarists’, Keynesian, theory of equilibrium) which strictly predetermine economy behaviour. The model makes it possible to analyze the influence of prices, under- or overproduction, bank loans on each product, the rates of taxes etc. on the development of all economy and of each manufacturer. Furthermore, this model can help in developing recommendations for the National Bank, government, each manufacturer, importer and exporter. This model has been developed for the Ukrainian economy whose peculiarities were duly accounted for. However, the model can be easily adjusted to study any other country’s economy.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document