scholarly journals Cryptocurrency Market: Overreaction to News and Herd Instincts

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 74-105
Author(s):  
Marina Malkina ◽  
Vyacheslav Ovchinnikov
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Asymmetric Reaction ◽  
General Direction ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Information Demand ◽  
Small Investors ◽  
Professional Market ◽  
Combination Of Methods

We studied the specific properties of the cryptocurrency market. Guided by the concept of implied volatility, we investigated the asymmetric reaction of the market to news. Based on the concept of realized volatility, we verified the hypothesis of herding behavior in the market. To test the properties of the market, we used a combination of methods, starting from the analysis of statistics of search queries, interpreted as proxies of information demand from professional market participants and the “wide crowd”, and ending with advanced Markov-Switching GARCH models and heterogeneous autoregressive models of realized volatility (HAR-RV-J-models). As a result, we found various types of asymmetric reactions of the cryptocurrency market to news related to both the general direction of its dynamics (growth or decrease) and the amplitude of return fluctuations (high or low volatility). During the upward price rally and overheating of the market, investors deliberately avoided the bad news; thereby the asymmetry in the cryptocurrency market was inverse (to the adopted leverage effect). On the contrary, during the downward price rally, market participants exhibited an overreaction to bad news. In addition, the asymmetric reaction to the news observed during the period of low market volatility actually disappeared when the amplitude of cryptocurrency return volatility increased. The behavior of short-term investors was also varied in the study period. While during the growth of the market, small speculators were more likely to follow their own trading strategies, during the hype they borrowed the trading practices of the largest players. We also revealed the effect of training among small investors: over time, they became less prone to provocations from large players, which did not allow the 2019 rally to surpass its counterpart in 2017 in terms of both return oscillations and duration.

STRATEGIC INSTRUMENTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF STOCK MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE INSTITUTES

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 67-76
Author(s):  
Andrii NIMKOVYCH
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Technology Implementation ◽  
Analytical Data ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Blockchain Technology ◽  
Money Transfer ◽  
Small Investors ◽  
Market Infrastructure

The article investigates the problem of ensuring the functioning of the securities market infrastructure of Ukraine. The analysis had been conducted through the prism of securities market participants' protection. The author has proposed to introduce the institute for protection of small investors in the stock market by the way of reorganization of the Deposit Guarantee Fund like in the Estonian and Lithuanian models. The Fund is tasked with the following in order to support the infrastructure of protection: to accumulate funds, to invest in managed funds and to pay insurance payments promptly in the case of an insurance event. On the basis of analytical data, the results from the implementation of the Fund are determined: accumulation of budgets to guarantee protection, increase in the value of securities in circulation, protection due to compensation of the guaranteed sums to small investors and the actual income from the functioning of the Fund. Another aspect of using strategic tools in stock market infrastructure is «FinTech» and blockchain technologies. Using of these technologies and the leading positions of Ukraine in the world are emphasized. Advantages of the blockchain technology implementation into the stock market infrastructure of Ukraine and economic feasibility are shown. The obligatory availability of electronic infrastructure for both the state and individual participants of the stock market is substantiated for the effective functioning of modern financial instruments. The author demonstrates the advantages of implementing blockchain technology in the stock market infrastructure of Ukraine and economic feasibility. Positive aspects of cooperation of powerful financial companies and blockchain institutions are shown, as well as problems of non-regulation of this issue in the Ukrainian legislation. A special place in the economics of stock market infrastructure is given to innovative money transfer systems. It has been found that the use of the Ripple system can form the basis of the infrastructure for quick and much cheaper internal payments in the stock market. Key words: stock market, infrastructure, institutions of infrastructure, guarantee fund, investments, blockchain technologies, «FinTech».

scholarly journals Predictability of OTC Option Volatility for Future Stock Volatility

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5200
Author(s):  
Jungmu Kim ◽  
Yuen Jung Park
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Unbiased Estimator ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Options Market ◽  
Over The Counter ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Future Realized Volatility

This study explores the information content of the implied volatility inferred from stock index options in the over-the-counter (OTC) market, which has rarely been studied in the literature. Using OTC calls, puts, and straddles on the KOSPI 200 index, we find that implied volatility generally outperforms historical volatility in predicting future realized volatility, although it is not an unbiased estimator. The results are more apparent for options with shorter maturity. However, while implied volatility has strong predictability during normal periods, historical volatility is superior to implied volatility during a period of crisis due to the liquidity contraction of the OTC options market. This finding suggests that the OTC options market can play a role in conveying important information to predict future volatility.

An Empirical Research on the Informational Efficiency of Model Free Implied Volatility

2008 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-94
Author(s):  
Byung Kun Rhee ◽  
Sang Won Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Informational Efficiency ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
Option Pricing Model ◽  
Korean Market ◽  
Better Than

Black-Scholes Imolied volatility (8SIV) has a few drawbacks. One is that the model Is not much successful in fitting the option prices. and It Is n야 guaranteed the model is correct one. Second. the usual tradition in using the BSIV is that only at-the-money Options are used. It is well-known that IV's of In-the-money or Qut-of-the-money ootions are much different from those estimated from near-the-money options. In this regard, a new model is confronted with Korean market data. Brittenxmes and Neuberger (2000) derive a formula for volatility which is a function of option prices‘ Since the formula is derived without using any option pricing model. volatility estimated from the formula is called model-tree implied volatillty (MFIV). MFIV overcomes the two drawbacks of BSIV. Jiang and Tian (2005) show that. with the S&P index Options (SPX), MFIV is suoerlor to historical volatility (HV) or BSIV in forecasting the future volatllity. In KOSPI 200 index options, when the forecasting performances are compared, MFIV is better than any other estimated volatilities. The hypothesis that MFIV contains all informations for realized volatility and the other volatilities are redundant is oot rejected in any cases.

scholarly journals Distribution of Historic Market Data – Implied and Realized Volatility

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 104 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Dashti Moghaddam ◽  
Zhiyuan Liu ◽  
R. A. Serota
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Shape Parameters ◽  
Realized Variance ◽  
Market Data ◽  
Systematic Comparison

We undertake a systematic comparison between implied volatility, as represented by VIX (new methodology) and VXO (old methodology) and realized volatility. We do not find substantial difference in accuracy between VIX and VXO. We compare visually and statistically the distributions of realized and implied variance (volatility squared) and study the distribution of their ratio. The ratio distributions are studied both for the known realized variance (for the current month) and for the predicted realized variance (for the following month). We show that the ratio of the two is best fitted by a Beta Prime distribution, whose shape parameters depend strongly on which of the two months is used.

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