scholarly journals Modelling the Botswana Pula/Us Dollar exchange rate using the Skewed generalized t (SGT) distributions

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 10-16
Author(s):  
Wilson Moseki Thupeng
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Error Distribution ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Generalized Error Distribution ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
T Distribution

The economy of Botswana heavily relies on mineral exports (mainly diamond exports), which are largely dependent on the exchange rate. And, the US Dollar is one of the most important currencies in the basket of currencies to which the Botswana Pula is pegged. Therefore, this paper seeks to empirically establish the baseline characteristics of the Botswana Pula (BWP) and the US Dollar (USD) exchange rate and to identify the most plausible probability distribution from the skewed generalized t (SGT) family that can be used to model the log-returns of the daily BWP/USD exchange rates for the period January 2001 to December 2020. The SGT family is a highly versatile class of models that can capture the skewness and kleptokurticity that are inherent in financial time series. Four probability distributions are considered in this study: skewed t, skewed generalized error, generalized t and skewed generalized t. The maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the parameters of each model. Model comparison and selection are based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The results of the study show that the daily BWP/USD exchange rate series is nonnormal, negatively skewed heavy-tailed. It is also found that, based on the values of both the AIC and BIC, the model that gives the best fit to the data is the skewed t, which is closely followed by the skewed generalized error distribution, while the generalized t gives the worst fit. Keywords: Pula/US Dollar exchange rate, log returns, Generalized t distribution, Skewed generalized error distribution, Skewed generalized t distribution, Skewed t distribution, skewness, kurtosis, maximum likelihood

scholarly journals FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI JUMLAH KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN DI PROPINSI SUMATERA UTARA

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Enita Rosmika
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
General Knowledge ◽  
Product Knowledge ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Tourism Product ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Tourism Product Knowledge is regarding the general knowledge of all regions in Indonesia which includes the location of the region / geography, climate, history, politics, culture, and particularly object - attractions and facilities and attractions which support it. In this study, entitled Factors Affecting Total tourist arrivals in Sumut Province Year Period 2014 -2019. The purpose of this study was to determine the number of rooms and the dollar exchange rate partially and simultaneously inuence the number of tourist arrivals in Sumut, in order to obtain a result the number of hotel rooms inuential not evident partially on the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, because t smaller than t table or -1.651 <1.761 while the dollar exchange rate has a signicant effect on the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, because t is greater than t table or 2.236> 1.740 and Total Room and the US dollar exchange rate simultaneously or together of the number of tourists visiting Sumut Province since F count> F table or 13.288> 3.59. The magnitude of the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable simultaneously can be known from the value of the coefcient of determination (R2) is equal to 0.639. This means that both variables jointly contribute to or inuence amounted to 63.9 percent of the number of tourists visiting the province of Sumut, while the remaining 36.1 percent is inuenced by other variables that are not described in the model, such as safety, service, facilities.

Optimistic and pessimistic economic sentiments and US Dollar exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DETERMINAN IMPOR DAGING SAPI DI INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 1990 – 2015

2019 ◽  
pp. 201
Author(s):  
Linanda Aninditha Chisilia ◽  
A.A Bagus Putu Widanta
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Import Price ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Abstract: Determinant Analysis of Beef Import in Indonesia On Year 1990-2015. The purpose ofthis study is to determine the effect of the amount of production, consumption, prices of importedand local beef and the US dollar exchange rate simultaneously on beef imports in Indonesia. Todetermine the effect of the amount of production, consumption, prices of imported and local beef and partially the US dollar exchange rate on beef imports in Indonesia. To find out the dominant variable between the amount of production, consumption, the price of imported and local beef andthe exchange rate of the United States dollar towards Indonesian beef imports. The data used inthis study are secondary using multiple linear regression analysis techniques. The results showsimultaneously a significant effect on beef imports in Indonesia. Partially the amount of productionand the US dollar exchange rate does not have a significant effect on beef imports in Indonesia.While the variable local prices and consumption partially have a positive and significant effect onbeef imports in Indonesia and the import price variable partially has a negative and significanteffect on beef imports in Indonesia. The dominant factor affecting beef imports in Indonesia isconsumption variable.Keywords: tourism industry; investment; employment opportunities; tourism sector GRDP.

scholarly journals Effects of Yuan–Dollar Exchange Rate Changes on World Cotton Markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 420-439
Author(s):  
Stephen Devadoss ◽  
Ethan Sabala
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Adverse Effects ◽  
World Cotton ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

AbstractFrom April 2018 to August 2019, the Yuan has declined in value relative to the US dollar by 12.6%, and the effects of this decline have not been studied. This study analyzes the effects of this fall in Yuan value, in isolation of tariffs, on US, Chinese, and world cotton markets. The results show that the adverse effects of the decline in Yuan value reverberate throughout world cotton markets and exacerbate the detrimental effects of the Chinese cotton tariff.

scholarly journals Influence Of Australian Coal Export On A$/US$ Exchange Rate: A Longitudinal Study

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Liakat Ali ◽  
Sheikh F. Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Australian Dollar ◽  
The Us ◽  
Australian Coal ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper investigates the contribution of Australian coal export to determine the exchange rate of Australian dollar with the US dollar. The quarterly data of Australian coal export and the Australian dollar exchange rate from 1992-2009 are employed to measure the influence of Australian coal export on A$/US$ exchange rate. This study finds that the Australian coal export has a positive relationship with the exchange rate of A$/US$ and their relationship is becoming stronger. The findings of this research suggest that the volume of Australian coal export contributes about 8% to determine the exchange rate of A$/US$ between the period of 1992-2009. The results of this analysis confirm that for each one million tonnes export increase of Australian coal, the Australian dollar value against the US$ increases by 0.002450 USD.

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