The Future Impact of Carbon Tax on Electricity Flow between Great Britain and Its Neighbors until 2030

This paper investigates the future role of cross-border electricity flow between Great Britain (GB) and its neighbors until 2030, considering high deployment of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind, solar, and biomass), enhanced interconnection capacity, and a partly electrified heating sector. It was assumed that two cross-border interconnectors links will connect GB’s power system to its neighbors: (1) a one-way interconnector (IC1) that imports electricity to GB, and (2) a two-way one (IC2) between France and GB. The IC2 was allowed to transfer electricity from a cheaper power system to a more expensive one. The results show that at a fixed CO2 price, a change in power imported via IC1 will affect the power dispatch of the CO2 emitting power plants and biomass-fired power plants, and electricity trade via IC1 and IC2. At IC1 importing of £60/MWh, by raising the CO2 price from 60 to £70/ton, the share of CCGT power plants will reduce by 75%, and the power imported via IC1 link will face 19-times growth. With a constant IC1 import price, raising the CO2 tax will reduce the total quantity of electricity being exported to France via IC2. Moreover, increasing the CO2 tax will increase the emissions cost of gas and coal-fired generators, and the power required to meet the demand will be imported via IC1. With the IC1 electricity price set to £20/MWh and the CO2 tax set to £50/ton, there may be 595 periods out of 17,520 in which GB will be used as an electricity trade corridor. GB’s total CO2 emissions should drop as the CO2 tax increases.

Ratchet Effect in Import Prices – Inflation Rate Nexus

This study examined the existence of the ratchet effect in the import price-inflation rate nexus for advanced (high-income) and emerging (middle-income) countries. The study used monthly data from 1980M01 to 2019M07 and compared the potential of the dummy variable-based asymmetric model with that of the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model in modelling the ratchet effect. The result showed that the ratchet effect exists in the import price-inflation rate nexus for high-income and middle-income countries. This suggests that the issue of imported inflation and ratchet effect is country-specific. The significance of the ratchet effect in these countries implies that maintaining a (symmetric) rule-based counter-cyclical monetary policy when dealing with import price shocks would be inefficient, and can make monetary policy harm the economy in the medium to the long term. It is, therefore, recommended that each country should examine the existence or otherwise of ratchet in her import price - inflation rate nexus to determine whether it should adopt a symmetric or an asymmetric rule-based counter-cyclical monetary policy against import price shocks to avoid harming the economy through the implementation of an inefficient monetary policy.

Safeguard measures and fresh produce trade: The case of U.S. blueberry imports

Safeguard measures are used to limit excessive import growth and protect domestic producers from unfair import competition. The global safeguard investigation for blueberries highlights these concerns and raises questions about the relationship between imports, prices, and the well-being of U.S. producers. Although the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) ruled that imports have not caused serious injury to U.S. blueberry producers, it was important to further examine this issue. In this study, we employ an inverse demand model and dynamic Vector Autoregressive (VAR) procedure linking source-specific fresh blueberry imports from countries like Mexico and Chile to U.S. blueberry prices. Our results mostly support the USITC ruling. Results indicate that declines in U.S. prices are small when compared to the level of import growth. Impulse response functions indicate that import price shocks are not long lasting.

Analysis of Hydrous Ethanol Price Competitiveness after the Implementation of the Fossil Fuel Import Price Parity Policy in Brazil

Competition is a relevant element in any open economy. Public policies are necessary to induce economic efficiency and to create conditions to preserve or stimulate a competitive environment. This paper aims to assess the competitiveness of hydrous ethanol price in a period of political, social and economic crises, in 15 Brazilian state capitals between the years 2012 and 2019. We compared the ethanol–gasoline price ratio behavior in two different periods, before and after the import parity price policy implemented by Petrobras in 2016. Mann–Whitney and Levene’s tests, two non-parametric statistical methods, were applied to verify significant changes between these periods. The implementation of changes in Petrobras’ pricing policy from 2016 onwards caused a statistically significant increase in the ratio coefficient of variation in two-thirds of the distribution market and more than the half of analyzed retail markets. Second, overall, the cities that showed statistically significant changes in the median and coefficient of variation in the distribution market price ratio were followed by the retail market. Our findings suggest that government interventions in the fuel and byproduct final selling prices to distributors negatively impact competition between companies that are part of the fuel distribution and retail chain, also affecting the sale of biofuels in Brazil and discouraging the initiatives to use renewable fuels to reduce the emission of pollutants.

Does the Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through Exist in Sudan?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the nominal exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Sudan from 1978–2017. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is employed. The analysis is based on impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decompositions (FEVDs). The dynamics of the cointegrated system can be investigated via the variance decompositions and IRFs. The findings confirm that the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Sudan is incomplete, and the empirical results also show that the domestic price index is predominantly caused by foreign price in both the short and long runs, in addition to the import price index and the nominal exchange rate; the exchange rate shock has a negative effect on the domestic price. Furthermore, FEVDs analysis illustrates that the variation in domestic price is primarily determined by the import prices, while changes in the exchange rate are primarily determined by the exchange rate itself.