scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

Implications of Central banks’ negative policy rates on financial stability

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 310-320
Author(s):  
Benjamin S. Kay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Negative Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

Purpose While central bankers have widely discussed the trade-offs of negative interest rates on monetary policy, the consequences of negative rates on financial stability are less well understood. The purpose of this paper is to examine the likely and possible financial stability consequences of a negative rates policy with particular focus on banks, short-term funding markets, foreign exchange markets, asset managers, pension funds and insurers. Design/methodology/approach It draws from international experience with negative interest rates to identify financial stability threats posed to any economy by negative interest rates, and it also highlights where the US experience is likely to differ. Findings In time, financial market threats and other logistical issues of a negative interest rate policy can be managed or overcome. Even cumulatively, these threats are likely to be small as long as the rates remain only modestly negative. However, if the rates remain negative for long periods or they become more sharply negative, the rewards of avoiding negative rates increase. Originality/value Does the negative interest rate policy directly or through these challenges of implementation present a substantial obstacle to achieving financial stability objectives? As policy rates go negative in a greater share of the global economy, the financial stability consequences remain poorly understood and under discussed.

Monetary policy and market interest rates: literature review using text analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Fedorova ◽  
Elena Meshkova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Text Analysis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates. This paper examines the efficiency of interest rate channel used in monetary regulation as well as implementation of monetary policy under low interest rates. This paper examines and reviews the scientific literature published over the past 30 years to determine primary research areas, to summarize their results and to identify appropriate measures of monetary policy to be used in practice in changing economic environment. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviews 94 studies focused on the relationship between monetary policy and market interest rates in terms of meeting the goals of macroeconomic regulation. The articles are selected on the basis of Scopus citation and bibliometric analysis. A major feature of this paper is the use of text analysis (data preparation, frequency of terms and collocations use, examination of relationships between terms, use of principal component analysis to determine research thematic areas). Using the method of principal component analysis while studying abstracts this paper reveals thematic areas of the research. Thus, the conducted text analysis provides unbiased results. Findings First, this paper examines the whole complex of relationships between monetary policy of central banks and market interest rates. Second, this research reviews a wide range of literature including recent studies focused on specific features of monetary policy under low and negative rates. Third, this study identifies and summarizes the thematic areas of all the researches using text analysis (transmission mechanism of monetary policy, efficiency of zero interest rate policy, monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate risk of banks, monetary policy of central banks and financial stability). Finally, this paper presents the most important findings of the studied articles related to the current situation and trends on the financial market as well as further research opportunities. This paper finds the principal results of studies on significant issues of monetary policy in terms of its efficiency under low interest rates, influence of its instruments on term structure of interest rates and role of banking sector in implementation of transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the review is examining articles for the study period of 30 years. Practical implications Central banks of emerging economies should apply the instruments and results of the countries' monetary policies reviewed in this paper. Using text analysis this paper reveals the main thematic areas and summarizes findings of the articles under study. The analysis allows presenting the main ideas related to current economic situation. Social implications The findings are of great value for adjusting the monetary policy of central banks. Also, these are important for people because these show the significant role of monetary policy for the economic growth. Originality/value Using text analysis this paper reveals the main thematic areas (transmission mechanism of monetary policy, efficiency of zero interest rate policy, monetary policy and term structure of interest rates, monetary policy and interest rate risk of banks, monetary policy of central banks and financial stability) and summarizes findings of the articles under study. The analysis allows defining the current ideas relevant to the monetary policy of developing countries. It is important for central banks because it examines the monetary policy problems and proposes optimal solutions.

Negative Interest Rate Policy as Conventional Monetary Policy

2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. R5-R14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miles S. Kimball
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Paper Currency ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Standard Models ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

As long as all interest rates move in tandem – including the rate of return on paper currency – economic theory suggests no important difference between interest rate changes in the positive region and interest rate changes in the negative region. Indeed, in standard models, only the real interest rate and spreads between real interest rates matter. Thus, in most respects, negative interest rate policy is conventional. It is only (a) what needs to be done with paper currency, (b) difficulties in understanding negative rates or (c) institutional features interacting with negative rates that make negative interest rate policy unconventional.

scholarly journals Interest Rate Policy Of Selected Central Banks In Central And Eastern Europe

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Tomasz Grabia
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Theoretical Description ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Economic Growth Rates

The aim of this article is to present and evaluate interest rate policies of three selected central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) from 2001 to 2013. The study consists of an introduction (Section 1) and three main parts. The introduction contains a theoretical description of the role of interest rate policy, the dilemmas connected with it, as well as an analysis of the strategies and goals of monetary policies of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), the Czech National Bank (CzNB), and the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) in the context of existing legal and institutional conditions. In turn, the first empirical part (Section 2) examines how the analysed central banks responded to changes in inflation, unemployment, and economic growth rates. The tools of the analysis are the nominal and real interest rates of those banks. The subsequent research part (Section 3) attempts to evaluate the degree of the contractionary nature of interest rate policies in specific countries in the context of the Taylor rule. The text ends with a summary (Section 4) encompassing concise conclusions drawn from the earlier analyses.

scholarly journals Framework for Preserving Financial Stability in Montenegro

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radoje Žugić ◽  
Nikola Fabris
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Policy Objective ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract The global financial crisis has challenged the traditional monetary policy framework of one instrument (short-term interest rates) - one objective (price stability). More and more central banks nowadays consider financial stability as a monetary policy objective, whereas the Central Bank of Montenegro is the only one that has identified financial stability as its primary objective. As this is a relatively new objective, all central banks endeavouring to attain this objective have been facing numerous difficulties. Therefore, the article analyzes some of these difficulties such as defining financial (in)stability, the selection of indicators, macroeconomic environment for preserving financial stability, and the like. The main objective of the paper is to analyse the framework for preserving financial stability in Montenegro and the challenges that the Central Bank of Montenegro has been facing in accomplishing this objective

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Shocks in the Russian Economy and Their Macroeconomic Effects

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 48-75
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Interest Rate

This section conducts an estimate of the impulse response function of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy shocks in Russia. The estimates are carried out through a dynamic factor model (DFM) of the Russian economy with structural identification of shocks by imposing various sets of sign restrictions on the behavior of endogenous variables. We restricted first the monetary aggregate M2 only (a decrease in response to an increase of the Key rate), and then—simultaneously—M2, real effective exchange rate (an increase), and GDP (a decrease). We estimated the DFM using a large dataset of 58 macroeconomic and financial variables. The estimation results suggest that there is no decreasing response of consumer prices to an exogenous tightening of the interest rate policy of the Central Bank of Russia. This empirical evidence is supported implicitly by DFM-based predictions that under the imposition of such a decreasing response as an identifying restriction to the model, a positive interest rate shock is not transmitted through the interest rate channel of monetary policy to expected increases of the interest rates on commercial loans and private deposits. However, existing empirical evidence refutes this model-based result. Therefore, this study supports the view according to which a tightening of monetary policy in Russia is inefficient in terms of restraining inflation. In addition, monetary policy shocks negatively affect investments, retail sales, export and import, real wages, and employment. Different economic activities react differently to monetary policy shocks: export-oriented activities are not sensitive to these shocks, whereas domestic pro-cyclical activities (e.g. construction) can be substantially depressed in response to unexpected increases of interest rates. Finally, the expectations of economic agents are also significantly affected by shocks in the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia.

scholarly journals AN ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL WITH A DEFLATION STEADY STATE

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 1151-1185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasuo Hirose
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Benhabib et al. [(2001) Journal of Economic Theory 96, 40–69] argue that there exists a deflation steady state when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate is considered in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with a deflation steady state for the Japanese economy during the period from 1999 to 2013, when the Bank of Japan conducted a zero interest rate policy and the inflation rate was almost always negative. Although the model exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy around the deflation steady state, a set of specific equilibria is selected by Bayesian methods. According to the estimated model, positive shocks to households’ preferences and wage markup, and a negative shock to monetary policy do not necessarily have an inflationary effect, in contrast to a standard model with a targeted-inflation steady state. An economy in the deflation equilibrium could experience unexpected volatility because of sunspot fluctuations, but it turns out that sunspot shocks have a limited effect on Japan’s output fluctuations and rather contribute to stabilizing the economy after the global financial crisis.

scholarly journals The Effects of Monetary Policy on House Prices in Spain: the role of the economic and monetary union membership in the housing bubble prior to the great recession

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 5
Author(s):  
Tibor Pál
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Housing Boom ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
The Impact

Aim: This paper aims to discover the evolution of monetary transmission in Spain by focusing on the short-term interest rate, credit aggregates and house prices through different stages of economic development and European integration between 1975 and 2008. In addition, the analysis devotes special attention to the interval of the last housing boom, in order to reveal the importance of the interest rate policy of the ECB.Design / Research methods: The study applies a tri-variate autoregressive model assigned to three overlapping periods outlined by regime shifts in the Spanish economy. The estimation output determines the strength and persistency of the links between interest rates, credit aggregates and house prices. Consequently, the results of the econometric analysis provide proper base for comparison in order to identify the dominating channels of monetary transmissions through a prolonged period.Conclusions / findings: It is found that the transmission mechanism in Spain essentially altered over time since 1975. At the beginning of the full analysed interval the role of the credit channel was dominant, then its importance gradually diminished. After the EMU accession the traditional interest rate channel became the leading factor with an intensified and more persistent effect on house prices.Originality / value of the article: While there are numerous researches aimed at estimating the impact of monetary policy on the real economy, empirical studies focusing exclusively on the link between interest rate policy and house prices in Spain are still rare. As the present paper concentrates solely on the Spanish characteristics through extended interval, the study provides country-specific inferences.Implications of the research: Understanding the mechanism of the monetary policy effects on the housing sector is an essential aspect of designing policy interventions aimed at keeping house price development in check.Limitations of the research: Despite the significant results of the empirical analysis, the excessively dynamic increase in the property prices suggests that the factor of irrational expectations also played important role in the latest Spanish housing bubble.Key words: Monetary policy, VAR, ECB, Housing boom, Monetary transmission mechanismJEL: E52, E58.

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